比特幣（BTC）達到97900美元，但期貨定價顯示做市商對持續的集會並不自信

由於機構投資者的需求飆升，BTC達到了97900美元，但期貨定價表明，交易者對持續的集會並不自信。

Bitcoin (BTC) broke out of a tight trading range between $93,000 and $95,600 on May 1, following six days of limited movement. As the crypto hit its highest price in ten weeks at $97,930 on May 1, derivatives indicators showed neutral sentiment.

在移動有限的六天之後，5月1日，比特幣（BTC）的交易範圍在93,000至95,600美元之間。 5月1日，加密貨幣的價格最高，售價為97,930美元，衍生品指標表現出中性情緒。

This price action follows significant net inflows into US spot exchange-traded Bitcoin (BTC) funds (ETFs), with $3.6 billion flowing into the products over the past two weeks. However, traders have displayed some disappointment as the macroeconomic outlook remains uncertain and global trade tensions are heating up again.

這種價格行動是在美國現貨交易所貿易幣（BTC）基金（ETF）的大量淨流入之後，在過去的兩周中，該產品流入了36億美元。但是，由於宏觀經濟前景仍然不確定，而且全球貿易緊張局勢再次加劇，但交易者表現出一些失望。

Bitcoin traders are wary that despite the growing interest from institutional investors, fears of an economic recession could hamper BTC's performance, reducing the chances of it reaching $110,000 or higher in 2025.

比特幣交易員謹慎的是，儘管機構投資者的興趣日益增加，但對經濟衰退的擔憂可能會阻礙BTC的表現，從而減少了2025年其$ 110,000或更高的機會。

To put this in perspective, the annualized premium for Bitcoin's two-month futures has remained between 6% and 7% over the past week, staying within the neutral range of 5% to 10%. In January, when Bitcoin was trading near $95,000, the futures premium was above 10%.

考慮到這一點，比特幣的兩個月期貨的年度溢價在過去一周中保持在6％至7％之間，中性範圍在5％至10％的範圍內。一月份，當比特幣交易接近95,000美元時，期貨保費超過10％。

Bankless: Bitcoin derivative data: a complete guide to futures premiums, options and more

無堤：比特幣衍生數據：期貨保費，期權等的完整指南

This data, together with the lack of conviction in further price gains toward $100,000 and above, suggests less optimism, or at least less conviction.

這些數據，加上在100,000美元及以上的進一步價格上漲的信念上，這表明其樂觀情緒較小，或者至少信念較少。

Some market participants are also noting gold's 20% rally, which saw prices rise from $2,680 to $3,220. This compares to Bitcoin's modest gains and marks a significant move for the world's most valuable asset.

一些市場參與者還指出，黃金的20％拉力賽，價格從2,680美元上漲至3,220美元。相比之下，比特幣的謙虛收益標誌著世界上最有價值的資產的重大舉措。

Investors are concerned that Bitcoin's strong correlation with the stock market has diminished the appeal of its "digital gold" narrative.

投資者擔心比特幣與股票市場的密切相關性降低了其“數字黃金”敘事的吸引力。

There is also the possibility that the $3.6 billion in net inflows to US spot ETFs over the past two weeks are being driven by delta-neutral strategies. In this scenario, the flows reflect Bitcoin holders moving to listed products or using derivatives for hedging.

在過去的兩周中，有可能由三角中不良策略驅動美國ETF的36億美元淨流入淨流入。在這種情況下，流量反映了比特幣持有者移動到列出的產品或使用衍生產品進行對沖。

If so, the direct impact on price would be limited, which aligns with Bitcoin's 5% gain during this period.

如果是這樣，對價格的直接影響將受到限制，在此期間，這與比特幣的5％增長一致。

To ascertain whether professional traders are comfortable with Bitcoin around $97,500, it's useful to examine the BTC options market.

為了確定專業貿易商是否適合比特幣約97,500美元，檢查BTC期權市場很有用。

The BTC options 25% delta skew metric is currently at its lowest level since Feb. 15, indicating that whales and market makers are assigning higher odds to further upside from here. This marks a sharp reversal from three weeks ago, when put (sell) options traded at a premium.

自2月15日以來，BTC選項25％Delta偏斜度量指標目前處於最低水平，這表明鯨魚和做市商的機率從這里分配了更高的機率。這標誌著三週前的急劇逆轉（出售）期權以溢價交易。

Overall, Bitcoin derivatives indicate moderate optimism. Traders generally expect further price gains, but bulls are refraining from using leverage. Some might argue that this creates the ideal conditions for a surprise rally, especially since the retest of $74,500 on April 9 did not significantly affect BTC derivatives.

總體而言，比特幣衍生物表明中度樂觀。交易者通常期望進一步的價格上漲，但公牛避免使用槓桿。有人可能會爭辯說，這創造了令人驚訝的集會的理想條件，尤其是因為4月9日的74,500美元的重新測試並沒有顯著影響BTC衍生產品。

The most important factor influencing Bitcoin's performance remains the commercial relationship between the US and China. As long as the trade war continues, Bitcoin is likely to continue tracking the S&P 500 movements. While this environment may prevent Bitcoin from reaching a new all-time high in the near term, BTC derivatives are currently leaning slightly in favor of the bulls.

影響比特幣績效的最重要因素仍然是美國和中國之間的商業關係。只要貿易戰繼續進行，比特幣可能會繼續跟踪標準普爾500指數。儘管這種環境可能會阻止比特幣在短期內達到新的歷史最高水平，但BTC衍生品目前略有支持公牛。