比特币（BTC）达到97900美元，但期货定价显示做市商对持续的集会并不自信

由于机构投资者的需求飙升，BTC达到了97900美元，但期货定价表明，交易者对持续的集会并不自信。

Bitcoin (BTC) broke out of a tight trading range between $93,000 and $95,600 on May 1, following six days of limited movement. As the crypto hit its highest price in ten weeks at $97,930 on May 1, derivatives indicators showed neutral sentiment.

在移动有限的六天之后，5月1日，比特币（BTC）的交易范围在93,000至95,600美元之间。 5月1日，加密货币的价格最高，售价为97,930美元，衍生品指标表现出中性情绪。

This price action follows significant net inflows into US spot exchange-traded Bitcoin (BTC) funds (ETFs), with $3.6 billion flowing into the products over the past two weeks. However, traders have displayed some disappointment as the macroeconomic outlook remains uncertain and global trade tensions are heating up again.

这种价格行动是在美国现货交易所贸易币（BTC）基金（ETF）的大量净流入之后，在过去的两周中，该产品流入了36亿美元。但是，由于宏观经济前景仍然不确定，而且全球贸易紧张局势再次加剧，但交易者表现出一些失望。

Bitcoin traders are wary that despite the growing interest from institutional investors, fears of an economic recession could hamper BTC's performance, reducing the chances of it reaching $110,000 or higher in 2025.

比特币交易员谨慎的是，尽管机构投资者的兴趣日益增加，但对经济衰退的担忧可能会阻碍BTC的表现，从而减少了2025年其$ 110,000或更高的机会。

To put this in perspective, the annualized premium for Bitcoin's two-month futures has remained between 6% and 7% over the past week, staying within the neutral range of 5% to 10%. In January, when Bitcoin was trading near $95,000, the futures premium was above 10%.

考虑到这一点，比特币的两个月期货的年度溢价在过去一周中保持在6％至7％之间，中性范围在5％至10％的范围内。一月份，当比特币交易接近95,000美元时，期货保费超过10％。

Bankless: Bitcoin derivative data: a complete guide to futures premiums, options and more

无堤：比特币衍生数据：期货保费，期权等的完整指南

This data, together with the lack of conviction in further price gains toward $100,000 and above, suggests less optimism, or at least less conviction.

这些数据，加上在100,000美元及以上的进一步价格上涨的信念上，这表明其乐观情绪较小，或者至少信念较少。

Some market participants are also noting gold's 20% rally, which saw prices rise from $2,680 to $3,220. This compares to Bitcoin's modest gains and marks a significant move for the world's most valuable asset.

一些市场参与者还指出，黄金的20％拉力赛，价格从2,680美元上涨至3,220美元。相比之下，比特币的谦虚收益标志着世界上最有价值的资产的重大举措。

Investors are concerned that Bitcoin's strong correlation with the stock market has diminished the appeal of its "digital gold" narrative.

投资者担心比特币与股票市场的密切相关性降低了其“数字黄金”叙事的吸引力。

There is also the possibility that the $3.6 billion in net inflows to US spot ETFs over the past two weeks are being driven by delta-neutral strategies. In this scenario, the flows reflect Bitcoin holders moving to listed products or using derivatives for hedging.

在过去的两周中，有可能由三角中不良策略驱动美国ETF的36亿美元净流入净流入。在这种情况下，流量反映了比特币持有者移动到列出的产品或使用衍生产品进行对冲。

If so, the direct impact on price would be limited, which aligns with Bitcoin's 5% gain during this period.

如果是这样，对价格的直接影响将受到限制，在此期间，这与比特币的5％增长一致。

To ascertain whether professional traders are comfortable with Bitcoin around $97,500, it's useful to examine the BTC options market.

为了确定专业贸易商是否适合比特币约97,500美元，检查BTC期权市场很有用。

The BTC options 25% delta skew metric is currently at its lowest level since Feb. 15, indicating that whales and market makers are assigning higher odds to further upside from here. This marks a sharp reversal from three weeks ago, when put (sell) options traded at a premium.

自2月15日以来，BTC选项25％Delta偏斜度量指标目前处于最低水平，这表明鲸鱼和做市商的几率从这里分配了更高的几率。这标志着三周前的急剧逆转（出售）期权以溢价交易。

Overall, Bitcoin derivatives indicate moderate optimism. Traders generally expect further price gains, but bulls are refraining from using leverage. Some might argue that this creates the ideal conditions for a surprise rally, especially since the retest of $74,500 on April 9 did not significantly affect BTC derivatives.

总体而言，比特币衍生物表明中度乐观。交易者通常期望进一步的价格上涨，但公牛避免使用杠杆。有人可能会争辩说，这创造了令人惊讶的集会的理想条件，尤其是因为4月9日的74,500美元的重新测试并没有显着影响BTC衍生产品。

The most important factor influencing Bitcoin's performance remains the commercial relationship between the US and China. As long as the trade war continues, Bitcoin is likely to continue tracking the S&P 500 movements. While this environment may prevent Bitcoin from reaching a new all-time high in the near term, BTC derivatives are currently leaning slightly in favor of the bulls.

影响比特币绩效的最重要因素仍然是美国和中国之间的商业关系。只要贸易战继续进行，比特币可能会继续跟踪标准普尔500指数。尽管这种环境可能会阻止比特币在短期内达到新的历史最高水平，但BTC衍生品目前略有支持公牛。