威利·沃說，比特幣（BTC）的增長正在放緩 - 這是一件好事。

在最近在比特幣信徒中引起了反思和現實的帖子中，鏈分析師威利·沃（Willy Woo）挑戰了比特幣（BTC）是一種無休止的指數資產的普遍看法。

In a recent post that sparked both reflection and a touch of sadness among Bitcoin believers, on-chain analyst Willy Woo broached a subject that may make some feel a pang of nostalgia: Bitcoin’s growth is slowing down.

在最近的一篇文章引發了比特幣信徒的反思和悲傷的感覺中，鍊鍊分析師威利·沃（Willy Woo）提出了一個可能使人感到懷舊的主題：比特幣的成長正在放緩。

As shared by Woo, updates on CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) highlight a long-term trend of declining returns, which may be a natural maturation process for Bitcoin as it transitions into a new phase.

正如Woo所共有的那樣，關於比特幣過渡到新階段的比特幣的自然成熟過程可能是回報下降的長期趨勢。

From Moonshots to Macro Maturity

從月經到宏觀成熟

While Bitcoin’s CAGR used to exceed 100% annually, particularly during the explosive growth phase leading up to and following 2017, those days are now a distant memory.

儘管比特幣的複合年增長率過去每年超過100％，尤其是在2017年爆炸性增長階段，但這些日子現在是遙遠的記憶。

“We are well past the 2017 year where we’d see many 100s of percent growth,” said Woo, adding that the key inflection point was 2020, when institutional investors, corporations, and sovereign entities began accumulating BTC in earnest.

吳說：“我們已經超過了2017年的增長百分比。”他補充說，關鍵的拐點是2020年，當時機構投資者，公司和主權實體開始認真地積累BTC。

This marked a shift from retail-driven hype cycles to a more macroeconomic-driven adoption phase, impacting the pace of Bitcoin’s price appreciation.

這標誌著從零售驅動的炒作週期轉變為更宏觀經濟驅動的採用階段，從而影響了比特幣價格升值的速度。

CAGR Compressing: From 100%+ to 30–40%, Heading to 8%?

CAGR壓縮：從100％+到30–40％，降至8％？

As shown in Woo’s Bitcoin Annualised Returns chart, Bitcoin’s 4-year average annual return has steadily declined. However, even with CAGR compressing from over 100% to the 30–40% range, and now settling around 17%, it’s still vastly outperforming traditional assets like the S&P 500 (7.8%).

如Woo的比特幣年度回報圖所示，比特幣的4年平均年收益穩步下降。但是，即使CAGR從100％以上到30–40％的範圍都有大約100％的範圍，現在達到了17％的量，它仍然超過了傳統資產，例如標準普爾500指數（7.8％）。

Predicting that Bitcoin’s CAGR may ultimately stabilize around 8%, aligning more closely with traditional capital markets, Woo combines several factors:

Woo預測比特幣的複合年增長率可能會穩定在8％左右，與傳統的資本市場更加緊密地保持一致，Woo結合了幾個因素：

“BTC is now traded as the newest macro asset in 150 years. It’ll continue to absorb capital until it reaches equilibrium.”

“ BTC現在被交易為150年來最新的宏觀資產。它將繼續吸收資本，直到達到平衡為止。”

Even with declining growth, no other publicly investable product over the past 15–20 years can match Bitcoin’s performance in that timeframe, rendering it the “best-performing asset.”

即使增長下降，在過去的15 - 20年中，沒有其他可公開投資的產品可以與比特幣在該時間範圍內的性能相匹配，從而使其成為“表現最佳的資產”。

Investors are advised to enjoy the ride, as capital gains will still be generated, albeit at a slower pace.

建議投資者享受這次旅行，因為仍然會產生資本收益，儘管速度較慢。

Final Thoughts

最後的想法

Bitcoin’s transition from a hyper-growth asset to a globally recognized macro store of value might reduce volatility and speculative frenzy, but that’s exactly what long-term capital prefers for making measured and sustained investments.

比特幣從超增長資產到全球認可的宏觀存儲的過渡可能會降低波動性和投機性瘋狂，但這正是長期資本更喜歡進行測量和持續的投資。

“Maybe 15–20 years away, almost no publicly investable product can match BTC performance,” added Woo.

Woo補充說：“大概有15 - 20年的歷史，幾乎沒有公共投資的產品可以符合BTC的性能。”

In a world of institutional capital, macro trends, and digital monetary policy, Bitcoin might be slowing down, but it’s also growing up, evolving into a different stage of its technological and economic journey.

在機構資本，宏觀趨勢和數字貨幣政策的世界中，比特幣可能正在放緩，但它也在成長，發展成為其技術和經濟旅程的不同階段。