威利·沃说，比特币（BTC）的增长正在放缓 - 这是一件好事。

在最近在比特币信徒中引起了反思和现实的帖子中，链分析师威利·沃（Willy Woo）挑战了比特币（BTC）是一种无休止的指数资产的普遍看法。

In a recent post that sparked both reflection and a touch of sadness among Bitcoin believers, on-chain analyst Willy Woo broached a subject that may make some feel a pang of nostalgia: Bitcoin’s growth is slowing down.

在最近的一篇文章引发了比特币信徒的反思和悲伤的感觉中，链链分析师威利·沃（Willy Woo）提出了一个可能使人感到怀旧的主题：比特币的成长正在放缓。

As shared by Woo, updates on CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) highlight a long-term trend of declining returns, which may be a natural maturation process for Bitcoin as it transitions into a new phase.

正如Woo所共有的那样，关于比特币过渡到新阶段的比特币的自然成熟过程可能是回报下降的长期趋势。

From Moonshots to Macro Maturity

从月经到宏观成熟

While Bitcoin’s CAGR used to exceed 100% annually, particularly during the explosive growth phase leading up to and following 2017, those days are now a distant memory.

尽管比特币的复合年增长率过去每年超过100％，尤其是在2017年爆炸性增长阶段，但这些日子现在是遥远的记忆。

“We are well past the 2017 year where we’d see many 100s of percent growth,” said Woo, adding that the key inflection point was 2020, when institutional investors, corporations, and sovereign entities began accumulating BTC in earnest.

吴说：“我们已经超过了2017年的增长百分比。”他补充说，关键的拐点是2020年，当时机构投资者，公司和主权实体开始认真地积累BTC。

This marked a shift from retail-driven hype cycles to a more macroeconomic-driven adoption phase, impacting the pace of Bitcoin’s price appreciation.

这标志着从零售驱动的炒作周期转变为更宏观经济驱动的采用阶段，从而影响了比特币价格升值的速度。

CAGR Compressing: From 100%+ to 30–40%, Heading to 8%?

CAGR压缩：从100％+到30–40％，降至8％？

As shown in Woo’s Bitcoin Annualised Returns chart, Bitcoin’s 4-year average annual return has steadily declined. However, even with CAGR compressing from over 100% to the 30–40% range, and now settling around 17%, it’s still vastly outperforming traditional assets like the S&P 500 (7.8%).

如Woo的比特币年度回报图所示，比特币的4年平均年收益稳步下降。但是，即使CAGR从100％以上到30–40％的范围都有大约100％的范围，现在达到了17％的量，它仍然超过了传统资产，例如标准普尔500指数（7.8％）。

Predicting that Bitcoin’s CAGR may ultimately stabilize around 8%, aligning more closely with traditional capital markets, Woo combines several factors:

Woo预测比特币的复合年增长率可能会稳定在8％左右，与传统的资本市场更加紧密地保持一致，Woo结合了几个因素：

“BTC is now traded as the newest macro asset in 150 years. It’ll continue to absorb capital until it reaches equilibrium.”

“ BTC现在被交易为150年来最新的宏观资产。它将继续吸收资本，直到达到平衡为止。”

Even with declining growth, no other publicly investable product over the past 15–20 years can match Bitcoin’s performance in that timeframe, rendering it the “best-performing asset.”

即使增长下降，在过去的15 - 20年中，没有其他可公开投资的产品可以与比特币在该时间范围内的性能相匹配，从而使其成为“表现最佳的资产”。

Investors are advised to enjoy the ride, as capital gains will still be generated, albeit at a slower pace.

建议投资者享受这次旅行，因为仍然会产生资本收益，尽管速度较慢。

Final Thoughts

最后的想法

Bitcoin’s transition from a hyper-growth asset to a globally recognized macro store of value might reduce volatility and speculative frenzy, but that’s exactly what long-term capital prefers for making measured and sustained investments.

比特币从超增长资产到全球认可的宏观存储的过渡可能会降低波动性和投机性疯狂，但这正是长期资本更喜欢进行测量和持续的投资。

“Maybe 15–20 years away, almost no publicly investable product can match BTC performance,” added Woo.

Woo补充说：“大概有15 - 20年的历史，几乎没有公共投资的产品可以符合BTC的性能。”

In a world of institutional capital, macro trends, and digital monetary policy, Bitcoin might be slowing down, but it’s also growing up, evolving into a different stage of its technological and economic journey.

在机构资本，宏观趋势和数字货币政策的世界中，比特币可能正在放缓，但它也在成长，发展成为其技术和经济旅程的不同阶段。