比特幣（BTC）現在顯示出一些非常有趣的行為。它甚至可能正在證實其投資論文

股票市場正在與唐納德·特朗普總統的關稅計劃相關的恐懼和樂觀浪潮。

The stock market is riding the waves of fear and optimism related to President Donald Trump's tariff plans. Further downside may be in the cards in the short term as well as in the long term if the tariffs bring on a recession or exacerbate inflation.

股票市場正在與唐納德·特朗普總統的關稅計劃相關的恐懼和樂觀浪潮。如果關稅帶來衰退或加劇通貨膨脹，則可能在短期內以及長期內的弊端。

But Bitcoin (BTC -0.19%) is showing some very interesting behavior at the moment. It might even be confirming a hypothesized part of its investment thesis that wasn't fully supported by the evidence before. And if that is indeed what it's doing, it's another reason to load up on the coin.

但是比特幣（BTC -0.19％）目前顯示出一些非常有趣的行為。它甚至可能證實了其投資論文的一個假設的一部分，以前沒有得到證據的完全支持。如果確實是它在做什麼，那是加載硬幣的另一個原因。

Is this the proof of the coin being a safe asset?

這是硬幣是安全資產的證明嗎？

One of the main ideas in favor of buying Bitcoin is that it's an asset that isn't tightly correlated with the traditional financial sector. While it's questionable whether that's actually true, given that many major banks now hold Bitcoin, the point is that if it isn't correlated, it shouldn't go up or down based on what's happening in the stock market or the global economy. Therefore, it could be an effective hedge against problems in the markets or turbulence in the world.

支持購買比特幣的主要思想之一是，這是一種與傳統金融部門密切相關的資產。雖然鑑於許多主要銀行現在擁有比特幣，但這是值得懷疑的，但要點是，如果不相關，則不應根據股票市場或全球經濟中的情況來上升或下降。因此，這可能是針對市場問題或世界動蕩的有效對沖。

On the face of it, the idea could work. Bitcoin isn't tied directly to economic fundamentals, and its value is pretty much exclusively derived from its inherent scarcity, as well as the fact that there's an army of die-hard evangelists who are prepared to buy it at practically any price. But, at least until recently, the historical data was shaky.

從表面上看，這個想法可以起作用。比特幣並非直接與經濟基本面有關，其價值幾乎完全來自其固有的稀缺性，以及有一支頑固的傳教士大軍準備以任何價格購買它。但是，至少直到最近，歷史數據都搖搖欲墜。

In its lifetime, Bitcoin has experienced numerous dramatic declines that shaved off 80% of its value, or even more. Recovering and powering beyond those troughs took at least a few years on average. Nobody would consider that a safe asset to hold when times get rough. That paradigm might be changing, though.

比特幣在其一生中經歷了許多戲劇性的下降，削減了其價值的80％，甚至更多。恢復和動力超出這些槽，平均至少需要幾年。沒有人會認為當時代變得艱難時可以持有的安全資產。但是，這種範式可能正在改變。

Consider this chart depicting Bitcoin's performance against exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the major stock market indexes since March 22:

考慮此圖表，描繪了比特幣對交易所交易基金（ETF）的業績，該基金跟踪自3月22日以來的主要股票市場指數：

Notice anything? While every major grouping of stocks was getting hammered by the news of looming tariffs, Bitcoin's price actually recovered stronger after a deeper initial dip. It didn't collapse as one would expect of a speculative asset during the period of peak pessimism, and that's one key factor that warrants further exploration.

注意什麼？雖然每一個主要的股票都被迫在眉睫的關稅的消息所困擾，但比特幣的價格在更深層次的初始下降後實際上恢復了強勁。它並沒有崩潰，因為人們期望在悲觀高峰時期對投機資產的期望，這是需要進一步探索的關鍵因素。

For now, consider this next chart looking at moves since the presidential election.

目前，考慮下一個圖表，研究以來總統大選以來的舉動。

Bitcoin continued to gain value during the period of anxiety starting after the election and leading up to the confirmation of the market's worst expectations about the trade war in April. But what does that mean, and why is it so important in the bigger scheme of why the coin is worth buying and holding?

從選舉開始後，比特幣在焦慮期間繼續獲得價值，並導致了市場對四月份貿易戰的最糟糕期望。但是，這是什麼意思，為什麼在更大的計劃中如此重要，為什麼硬幣值得購買和持有？

In short, if Bitcoin holds up when everything else is struggling, it means there's some meat on the bone of the argument that it's an uncorrelated asset relative to the traditional financial system. In other words, it could be finally showing its capability as a safe asset, and to live up to the digital-gold moniker that's long been more of an aspiration than a fact. Until now, aside from times when its price was being driven upward primarily by its own supply dynamics, the coin appeared to be highly correlated with the broader market during periods of decline, like during the 2022 bear market for instance.

簡而言之，如果比特幣在其他一切都在掙扎時堅持下去，這意味著與傳統金融體系相對於傳統金融體系，這是一個不相關的資產。換句話說，它最終可以表現出其作為安全資產的能力，並辜負數字金牌的綽號，而數字金牌綽號長期以來是一種願望，而不是事實。直到現在，除了其價格主要由其自身供應動態推動的時期外，硬幣似乎與較低的下降時期的廣泛市場高度相關，例如在2022年的熊市中。

There's a clear action to take

有明確的行動要採取

The real test for Bitcoin's safety is still on the way. There might be a lot more turbulence in the markets coming soon, especially if the tariffs have damaging economic effects around the world.

比特幣安全性的真正測試仍在途中。市場上可能會有更多的動盪，尤其是當關稅在世界範圍內具有破壞性的經濟影響時。

If there's a recession caused by the tariffs in the U.S. or elsewhere, it's inevitable that some holders will need to liquidate their Bitcoin to pay the bills. The question is whether they would do so as one of the first assets they sell, or as one of the last. It isn't possible to answer that question with certainty at the moment, and it won't be possible until there is more data.

如果美國或其他地方的關稅造成了衰退，則不可避免的是，一些持有人需要清算其比特幣以支付賬單。問題是他們是作為他們出售的第一批資產之一還是最後一個資產之一。目前不可能確定地回答這個問題，直到有更多數據之前，才有可能。

But even in that bearish scenario, it's important to note that there can only ever be 21 million Bitcoin mined. And the difficulty of mining it will increase over time, with an ever-increasing amount of effort yielding lower and lower returns. So, the core value-generating mechanism of scarcity is going to grind onward even if the price suffers during a tough economy. It's worth buying today at its current price to get the upside from its long move toward being in shorter supply.

但是，即使在看跌的情況下，重要的是要注意，只能開採2100萬比特幣。而且開采的困難將隨著時間的流逝而增加，並且努力不斷增加的努力會產生較低和較低的回報。因此，即使在艱難的經濟中的價格受到損失，稀缺的核心價值產生機制也會磨損。今天值得以目前的價格購買，從而從較短的供應中獲得上漲。

But imagine if Bitcoin passes through a general rout of the financial markets while retaining most of its value or perhaps even continuing to appreciate against major assets. While it isn't guaranteed on the basis of its preliminary performance so far, if the trend continues, it would confirm its characteristics as a fairly safe investment and, if anything, generate even more demand for the coin. In such a situation, it would make sense to buy even more than before.

但是，想像一下，如果比特幣通過金融市場的一般潰敗，同時保留其大部分價值，甚至繼續對主要資產進行欣賞。儘管迄今為止尚未根據其初步性能來保證，但如果趨勢繼續下去，它將確認其特徵是相當安全的投資，如果有的話，對硬幣的需求更大。在這種情況下，購買比以前更多是有意義的。

No matter what scenario occurs, you can buy Bitcoin with confidence

無論發生哪種情況，您都可以自信地購買比特幣