比特币（BTC）现在显示出一些非常有趣的行为。它甚至可能正在证实其投资论文

股票市场正在与唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税计划相关的恐惧和乐观浪潮。

The stock market is riding the waves of fear and optimism related to President Donald Trump's tariff plans. Further downside may be in the cards in the short term as well as in the long term if the tariffs bring on a recession or exacerbate inflation.

股票市场正在与唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税计划相关的恐惧和乐观浪潮。如果关税带来衰退或加剧通货膨胀，则可能在短期内以及长期内的弊端。

But Bitcoin (BTC -0.19%) is showing some very interesting behavior at the moment. It might even be confirming a hypothesized part of its investment thesis that wasn't fully supported by the evidence before. And if that is indeed what it's doing, it's another reason to load up on the coin.

但是比特币（BTC -0.19％）目前显示出一些非常有趣的行为。它甚至可能证实了其投资论文的一个假设的一部分，以前没有得到证据的完全支持。如果确实是它在做什么，那是加载硬币的另一个原因。

Is this the proof of the coin being a safe asset?

这是硬币是安全资产的证明吗？

One of the main ideas in favor of buying Bitcoin is that it's an asset that isn't tightly correlated with the traditional financial sector. While it's questionable whether that's actually true, given that many major banks now hold Bitcoin, the point is that if it isn't correlated, it shouldn't go up or down based on what's happening in the stock market or the global economy. Therefore, it could be an effective hedge against problems in the markets or turbulence in the world.

支持购买比特币的主要思想之一是，这是一种与传统金融部门密切相关的资产。虽然鉴于许多主要银行现在拥有比特币，但这是值得怀疑的，但要点是，如果不相关，则不应根据股票市场或全球经济中的情况来上升或下降。因此，这可能是针对市场问题或世界动荡的有效对冲。

On the face of it, the idea could work. Bitcoin isn't tied directly to economic fundamentals, and its value is pretty much exclusively derived from its inherent scarcity, as well as the fact that there's an army of die-hard evangelists who are prepared to buy it at practically any price. But, at least until recently, the historical data was shaky.

从表面上看，这个想法可以起作用。比特币并非直接与经济基本面有关，其价值几乎完全来自其固有的稀缺性，以及有一支顽固的传教士大军准备以任何价格购买它。但是，至少直到最近，历史数据都摇摇欲坠。

In its lifetime, Bitcoin has experienced numerous dramatic declines that shaved off 80% of its value, or even more. Recovering and powering beyond those troughs took at least a few years on average. Nobody would consider that a safe asset to hold when times get rough. That paradigm might be changing, though.

比特币在其一生中经历了许多戏剧性的下降，削减了其价值的80％，甚至更多。恢复和动力超出这些槽，平均至少需要几年。没有人会认为当时代变得艰难时可以持有的安全资产。但是，这种范式可能正在改变。

Consider this chart depicting Bitcoin's performance against exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the major stock market indexes since March 22:

考虑此图表，描绘了比特币对交易所交易基金（ETF）的业绩，该基金跟踪自3月22日以来的主要股票市场指数：

Notice anything? While every major grouping of stocks was getting hammered by the news of looming tariffs, Bitcoin's price actually recovered stronger after a deeper initial dip. It didn't collapse as one would expect of a speculative asset during the period of peak pessimism, and that's one key factor that warrants further exploration.

注意什么？虽然每一个主要的股票都被迫在眉睫的关税的消息所困扰，但比特币的价格在更深层次的初始下降后实际上恢复了强劲。它并没有崩溃，因为人们期望在悲观高峰时期对投机资产的期望，这是需要进一步探索的关键因素。

For now, consider this next chart looking at moves since the presidential election.

目前，考虑下一个图表，研究以来总统大选以来的举动。

Bitcoin continued to gain value during the period of anxiety starting after the election and leading up to the confirmation of the market's worst expectations about the trade war in April. But what does that mean, and why is it so important in the bigger scheme of why the coin is worth buying and holding?

从选举开始后，比特币在焦虑期间继续获得价值，并导致了市场对四月份贸易战的最糟糕期望。但是，这是什么意思，为什么在更大的计划中如此重要，为什么硬币值得购买和持有？

In short, if Bitcoin holds up when everything else is struggling, it means there's some meat on the bone of the argument that it's an uncorrelated asset relative to the traditional financial system. In other words, it could be finally showing its capability as a safe asset, and to live up to the digital-gold moniker that's long been more of an aspiration than a fact. Until now, aside from times when its price was being driven upward primarily by its own supply dynamics, the coin appeared to be highly correlated with the broader market during periods of decline, like during the 2022 bear market for instance.

简而言之，如果比特币在其他一切都在挣扎时坚持下去，这意味着与传统金融体系相对于传统金融体系，这是一个不相关的资产。换句话说，它最终可以表现出其作为安全资产的能力，并辜负数字金牌的绰号，而数字金牌绰号长期以来是一种愿望，而不是事实。直到现在，除了其价格主要由其自身供应动态推动的时期外，硬币似乎与较低的下降时期的广泛市场高度相关，例如在2022年的熊市中。

There's a clear action to take

有明确的行动要采取

The real test for Bitcoin's safety is still on the way. There might be a lot more turbulence in the markets coming soon, especially if the tariffs have damaging economic effects around the world.

比特币安全性的真正测试仍在途中。市场上可能会有更多的动荡，尤其是当关税在世界范围内具有破坏性的经济影响时。

If there's a recession caused by the tariffs in the U.S. or elsewhere, it's inevitable that some holders will need to liquidate their Bitcoin to pay the bills. The question is whether they would do so as one of the first assets they sell, or as one of the last. It isn't possible to answer that question with certainty at the moment, and it won't be possible until there is more data.

如果美国或其他地方的关税造成了衰退，则不可避免的是，一些持有人需要清算其比特币以支付账单。问题是他们是作为他们出售的第一批资产之一还是最后一个资产之一。目前不可能确定地回答这个问题，直到有更多数据之前，才有可能。

But even in that bearish scenario, it's important to note that there can only ever be 21 million Bitcoin mined. And the difficulty of mining it will increase over time, with an ever-increasing amount of effort yielding lower and lower returns. So, the core value-generating mechanism of scarcity is going to grind onward even if the price suffers during a tough economy. It's worth buying today at its current price to get the upside from its long move toward being in shorter supply.

但是，即使在看跌的情况下，重要的是要注意，只能开采2100万比特币。而且开采的困难将随着时间的流逝而增加，并且努力不断增加的努力会产生较低和较低的回报。因此，即使在艰难的经济中的价格受到损失，稀缺的核心价值产生机制也会磨损。今天值得以目前的价格购买，从而从较短的供应中获得上涨。

But imagine if Bitcoin passes through a general rout of the financial markets while retaining most of its value or perhaps even continuing to appreciate against major assets. While it isn't guaranteed on the basis of its preliminary performance so far, if the trend continues, it would confirm its characteristics as a fairly safe investment and, if anything, generate even more demand for the coin. In such a situation, it would make sense to buy even more than before.

但是，想象一下，如果比特币通过金融市场的一般溃败，同时保留其大部分价值，甚至继续对主要资产进行欣赏。尽管迄今为止尚未根据其初步性能来保证，但如果趋势继续下去，它将确认其特征是相当安全的投资，如果有的话，对硬币的需求更大。在这种情况下，购买比以前更多是有意义的。

No matter what scenario occurs, you can buy Bitcoin with confidence

无论发生哪种情况，您都可以自信地购买比特币