伯恩斯坦分析師預測比特幣 ETF 暫停，多頭市場將恢復

儘管現貨比特幣ETF 流入放緩，但Bernstein 分析師仍維持對比特幣的看漲前景，預計在2025 年恢復至15 萬美元目標之前會出現「短暫暫停」。其歸因於「減半」和ETF的推出拉動回報。分析師強調，比特幣需要時間才能獲得投資認可，平台也需要時間來建立 ETF 產品的合規性。他們還預見到，如果 SEC 拒絕以太坊 ETF 現貨交易，可能會引發訴訟，這可能會導致人們重新關注以太坊並推動其優異表現，從而有利於 Layer 2 代幣和質押機會。除了比特幣和以太坊之外，分析師還發現了 Solana、DeFi、加密遊戲和代幣化現實世界資產的成長潛力，預測加密貨幣總市值將成長兩倍，達到 7.5 兆美元。

Bitcoin ETFs: Bernstein Analysts Predict Pause Before Resumption of Bull Run

比特幣 ETF：伯恩斯坦分析師預測牛市恢復前將暫停

Bernstein, a prominent research and brokerage firm, has dismissed concerns over the recent slowdown in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, dubbing it a "short-term pause." The firm's analysts remain optimistic, anticipating that Bitcoin will resume its bullish trajectory towards a projected price target of $150,000 by the end of 2025.

著名的研究和經紀公司伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）駁回了人們對近期比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）現貨流入放緩的擔憂，稱其為「短期暫停」。該公司的分析師仍然樂觀，預計到 2025 年底，比特幣將恢復看漲軌跡，達到 15 萬美元的預期價格目標。

ETF Slowdown Deemed Transitory

ETF 放緩被認為是暫時的

In a recent note to clients, Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra explained that the slowdown in Bitcoin ETF flows was expected following the asset's significant gains in the year-to-date, as a result of the halving event and the successful launch of ETFs. They believe that this slowdown is merely a brief intermission before ETFs become more widely integrated into the platforms utilized by private banks, wealth advisors, and brokerages.

Gautam Chhugani 和 Mahika Sapra 在最近給客戶的報告中解釋說，由於減半事件和 ETF 的成功推出，比特幣 ETF 流量今年迄今大幅上漲，預計將放緩。他們認為，這種放緩只是 ETF 更廣泛地融入私人銀行、財富顧問和經紀公司使用的平台之前的短暫間歇。

Time Required for Acceptance

受理所需時間

The analysts acknowledged that it may take time for Bitcoin to gain widespread acceptance as a recommended portfolio allocation and for platforms to develop the necessary compliance frameworks to distribute ETF products. However, they maintained their bullish outlook, citing the substantial $12 billion in net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs to date.

分析師承認，比特幣可能需要時間才能作為推薦的投資組合配置而廣受接受，平台也可能需要時間來開發必要的合規框架來分銷 ETF 產品。然而，他們維持看漲前景，理由是迄今為止已有 120 億美元的資金淨流入現貨比特幣 ETF。

Healthy Miner Landscape

健康的礦工景觀

Post-halving, leading Bitcoin miners are in a robust financial position, benefiting from a combination of market consolidation and transaction fees normalizing around 10% of miner revenues. This favorable environment further bolsters the analysts' belief in Bitcoin's potential for sustained growth.

減半後，領先的比特幣礦商處於穩健的財務狀況，受益於市場整合和交易費用正常化約佔礦商收入的 10%。這種有利的環境進一步增強了分析師對比特幣持續成長潛力的信心。

Technical Analysis and Momentum

技術分析和動力

Since late February, Bitcoin has been contained within a range of $62,000 to $72,000, devoid of clear momentum. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $62,557.

自2月底以來，比特幣一直被控制在62,000美元至72,000美元的區間內，缺乏明顯的動力。截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格為 62,557 美元。

Spot Ethereum ETF Denial Could Boost Ether

現貨以太坊 ETF 被拒絕可能會提振以太幣

Bernstein's analysts speculated that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) might reject spot Ethereum ETFs by the deadline of May 23, citing concerns over the reliability of the correlation between spot and futures markets. However, they believe that such a decision could be contested and overturned in court, similar to the case of Grayscale Bitcoin ETF.

Bernstein 的分析師推測，美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 可能會在 5 月 23 日截止日期之前拒絕現貨以太坊 ETF，理由是擔心現貨和期貨市場之間相關性的可靠性。然而，他們認為這樣的決定可能會在法庭上受到質疑並被推翻，類似於灰階比特幣 ETF 的案例。

Alternatively, the SEC could deny approval based on the classification of Ethereum as a security. Such a move would create an incongruous situation with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which classifies Ethereum as a commodity, and would also undermine the trading of Ethereum futures on the CME without any security implications.

或者，美國證券交易委員會可以根據以太坊作為證券的分類來拒絕批准。此舉將與商品期貨交易委員會產生不一致的情況，該委員會將以太坊歸類為商品，並且還會破壞芝加哥商品交易所的以太坊期貨交易，而不會產生任何安全影響。

Regardless of the SEC's decision, Chhugani and Sapra predict that a denial would likely initiate litigation and shift the market narrative back towards Ethereum. They argue that Ethereum's underperformance relative to Bitcoin makes it an attractive risk-reward proposition. Any outperformance by Ethereum would also revitalize Layer 2 tokens such as Arbitrum, Optimism, and Polygon.

無論 SEC 的決定如何，Chhugani 和 Sapra 預測，否認可能會引發訴訟，並將市場敘事重新轉向以太坊。他們認為，以太坊相對於比特幣的表現不佳使其成為一個有吸引力的風險回報主張。以太坊的任何出色表現也將重振 Arbitrum、Optimism 和 Polygon 等 Layer 2 代幣。

Ether Staking and EigenLayer

以太坊質押和 EigenLayer

The analysts also view ether staking through Lido as a high-growth opportunity. Additionally, EigenLayer's restaking economy and the potential launch of the Eigen token could further incentivize and accelerate the adoption of this crypto niche.

分析師也認為透過 Lido 進行以太坊質押是一個高成長的機會。此外，EigenLayer 的重新抵押經濟和 Eigen 代幣的潛在推出可能會進一步激勵和加速這個加密利基市場的採用。

Broader Crypto Market Outlook

更廣泛的加密貨幣市場前景

Beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, Bernstein's analysts identified several other crypto niches and projects with significant growth potential. These include:

除了比特幣和以太坊之外，伯恩斯坦的分析師還發現了其他幾個具有巨大成長潛力的加密貨幣利基市場和專案。這些包括：

• Solana, with its dominant market share in USDC stablecoin volumes, reflecting its increasing prevalence in crypto payments, and promising integrations with Visa, Shopify, and Stripe.
• DeFi sector proxies, including Uniswap, GMX, and Synthetix.
• Ronin blockchain, with its 11 new games and a monthly active user base of approximately 3 million, as a crypto gaming proxy.

Growing Real-World Asset Market

Solana 在USDC 穩定幣交易量中佔據主導市場份額，反映出其在加密支付領域的日益普及，並有望與Visa、Shopify 和Stripe.DeFi 行業代理（包括Uniswap、GMX 和Synthetix.Ronin 區塊鏈）集成，其11 個新區塊鏈作為加密貨幣遊戲代理，每月活躍用戶數約為 300 萬。

The analysts also highlighted the burgeoning real-world asset market, with established financial institutions such as BlackRock and Franklin Templeton managing over $700 million in tokenized money market funds. Tokenized U.S. Treasuries account for $1.3 billion on-chain. Chainlink's data oracle and tokenization platform are seen as key components of this niche's infrastructure.

分析師也強調了新興的現實世界資產市場，貝萊德和富蘭克林鄧普頓等老牌金融機構管理著超過 7 億美元的代幣化貨幣市場基金。代幣化美國國債在鏈上的價值為 13 億美元。 Chainlink 的數據預言機和代幣化平台被視為該利基基礎設施的關鍵組成部分。

Triple Growth Predicted for Crypto Market Cap

加密貨幣市值預計將成長三倍

Overall, Bernstein's analysts reiterated their bullish outlook for the broader crypto market, projecting a threefold increase in its total market capitalization to $7.5 trillion over the next 18 to 24 months.

總體而言，伯恩斯坦的分析師重申了他們對更廣泛的加密貨幣市場的看漲前景，預計未來 18 至 24 個月內其總市值將增長三倍，達到 7.5 兆美元。