伯恩斯坦分析师预测比特币 ETF 暂停，牛市将恢复

尽管现货比特币 ETF 流入放缓，但 Bernstein 分析师仍维持对比特币的看涨前景，预计在 2025 年恢复至 15 万美元目标之前会出现“短暂暂停”。他们认为，放缓是暂时的，将其归因于“减半”和ETF的推出拉动回报。分析师强调，比特币需要时间才能获得投资认可，平台也需要时间来建立 ETF 产品的合规性。他们还预见到，如果 SEC 拒绝以太坊 ETF 现货交易，可能会引发诉讼，这可能会导致人们重新关注以太坊并推动其优异表现，从而有利于 Layer 2 代币和质押机会。除了比特币和以太坊之外，分析师还发现了 Solana、DeFi、加密游戏和代币化现实世界资产的增长潜力，预测加密货币总市值将增长两倍，达到 7.5 万亿美元。

Bitcoin ETFs: Bernstein Analysts Predict Pause Before Resumption of Bull Run

比特币 ETF：伯恩斯坦分析师预测牛市恢复前将暂停

Bernstein, a prominent research and brokerage firm, has dismissed concerns over the recent slowdown in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, dubbing it a "short-term pause." The firm's analysts remain optimistic, anticipating that Bitcoin will resume its bullish trajectory towards a projected price target of $150,000 by the end of 2025.

著名的研究和经纪公司伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）驳回了人们对近期比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）现货流入放缓的担忧，称其为“短期暂停”。该公司的分析师仍然乐观，预计到 2025 年底，比特币将恢复看涨轨迹，达到 15 万美元的预计价格目标。

ETF Slowdown Deemed Transitory

ETF 放缓被认为是暂时的

In a recent note to clients, Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra explained that the slowdown in Bitcoin ETF flows was expected following the asset's significant gains in the year-to-date, as a result of the halving event and the successful launch of ETFs. They believe that this slowdown is merely a brief intermission before ETFs become more widely integrated into the platforms utilized by private banks, wealth advisors, and brokerages.

Gautam Chhugani 和 Mahika Sapra 在最近给客户的一份报告中解释说，由于减半事件和 ETF 的成功推出，比特币 ETF 流量今年迄今大幅上涨，预计将放缓。他们认为，这种放缓只是 ETF 更广泛地融入私人银行、财富顾问和经纪公司使用的平台之前的短暂间歇。

Time Required for Acceptance

受理所需时间

The analysts acknowledged that it may take time for Bitcoin to gain widespread acceptance as a recommended portfolio allocation and for platforms to develop the necessary compliance frameworks to distribute ETF products. However, they maintained their bullish outlook, citing the substantial $12 billion in net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs to date.

分析师承认，比特币可能需要时间才能作为推荐的投资组合配置获得广泛接受，平台也可能需要时间来开发必要的合规框架来分销 ETF 产品。然而，他们维持看涨前景，理由是迄今为止已有 120 亿美元的资金净流入现货比特币 ETF。

Healthy Miner Landscape

健康的矿工景观

Post-halving, leading Bitcoin miners are in a robust financial position, benefiting from a combination of market consolidation and transaction fees normalizing around 10% of miner revenues. This favorable environment further bolsters the analysts' belief in Bitcoin's potential for sustained growth.

减半后，领先的比特币矿商处于稳健的财务状况，受益于市场整合和交易费用正常化约占矿商收入的 10%。这种有利的环境进一步增强了分析师对比特币持续增长潜力的信心。

Technical Analysis and Momentum

技术分析和动力

Since late February, Bitcoin has been contained within a range of $62,000 to $72,000, devoid of clear momentum. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $62,557.

自2月底以来，比特币一直被控制在62,000美元至72,000美元的区间内，缺乏明显的动力。截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格为 62,557 美元。

Spot Ethereum ETF Denial Could Boost Ether

现货以太坊 ETF 被拒绝可能会提振以太币

Bernstein's analysts speculated that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) might reject spot Ethereum ETFs by the deadline of May 23, citing concerns over the reliability of the correlation between spot and futures markets. However, they believe that such a decision could be contested and overturned in court, similar to the case of Grayscale Bitcoin ETF.

Bernstein 的分析师推测，美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 可能会在 5 月 23 日截止日期之前拒绝现货以太坊 ETF，理由是担心现货和期货市场之间相关性的可靠性。然而，他们认为这样的决定可能会在法庭上受到质疑并被推翻，类似于灰度比特币 ETF 的案例。

Alternatively, the SEC could deny approval based on the classification of Ethereum as a security. Such a move would create an incongruous situation with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which classifies Ethereum as a commodity, and would also undermine the trading of Ethereum futures on the CME without any security implications.

或者，美国证券交易委员会可以根据以太坊作为证券的分类拒绝批准。此举将与商品期货交易委员会产生不一致的情况，该委员会将以太坊归类为商品，并且还会破坏芝加哥商品交易所的以太坊期货交易，而不会产生任何安全影响。

Regardless of the SEC's decision, Chhugani and Sapra predict that a denial would likely initiate litigation and shift the market narrative back towards Ethereum. They argue that Ethereum's underperformance relative to Bitcoin makes it an attractive risk-reward proposition. Any outperformance by Ethereum would also revitalize Layer 2 tokens such as Arbitrum, Optimism, and Polygon.

无论 SEC 的决定如何，Chhugani 和 Sapra 预测，否认可能会引发诉讼，并将市场叙事重新转向以太坊。他们认为，以太坊相对于比特币的表现不佳使其成为一个有吸引力的风险回报主张。以太坊的任何出色表现也将重振 Arbitrum、Optimism 和 Polygon 等 Layer 2 代币。

Ether Staking and EigenLayer

以太坊质押和 EigenLayer

The analysts also view ether staking through Lido as a high-growth opportunity. Additionally, EigenLayer's restaking economy and the potential launch of the Eigen token could further incentivize and accelerate the adoption of this crypto niche.

分析师还认为通过 Lido 进行以太坊质押是一个高增长的机会。此外，EigenLayer 的重新抵押经济和 Eigen 代币的潜在推出可能会进一步激励和加速这一加密利基市场的采用。

Broader Crypto Market Outlook

更广泛的加密货币市场前景

Beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, Bernstein's analysts identified several other crypto niches and projects with significant growth potential. These include:

除了比特币和以太坊之外，伯恩斯坦的分析师还发现了其他几个具有巨大增长潜力的加密货币利基市场和项目。这些包括：

• Solana, with its dominant market share in USDC stablecoin volumes, reflecting its increasing prevalence in crypto payments, and promising integrations with Visa, Shopify, and Stripe.
• DeFi sector proxies, including Uniswap, GMX, and Synthetix.
• Ronin blockchain, with its 11 new games and a monthly active user base of approximately 3 million, as a crypto gaming proxy.

Growing Real-World Asset Market

Solana 在 USDC 稳定币交易量中占据主导市场份额，这反映出其在加密支付领域的日益普及，并有望与 Visa、Shopify 和 Stripe.DeFi 行业代理（包括 Uniswap、GMX 和 Synthetix.Ronin 区块链）集成，其 11 个新区块链作为加密货币游戏代理，每月活跃用户数约为 300 万。不断增长的现实世界资产市场

The analysts also highlighted the burgeoning real-world asset market, with established financial institutions such as BlackRock and Franklin Templeton managing over $700 million in tokenized money market funds. Tokenized U.S. Treasuries account for $1.3 billion on-chain. Chainlink's data oracle and tokenization platform are seen as key components of this niche's infrastructure.

分析师还强调了新兴的现实世界资产市场，贝莱德和富兰克林邓普顿等老牌金融机构管理着超过 7 亿美元的代币化货币市场基金。代币化美国国债在链上的价值为 13 亿美元。 Chainlink 的数据预言机和代币化平台被视为该利基基础设施的关键组成部分。

Triple Growth Predicted for Crypto Market Cap

加密货币市值预计将增长三倍

Overall, Bernstein's analysts reiterated their bullish outlook for the broader crypto market, projecting a threefold increase in its total market capitalization to $7.5 trillion over the next 18 to 24 months.

总体而言，伯恩斯坦的分析师重申了他们对更广泛的加密货币市场的看涨前景，预计未来 18 至 24 个月内其总市值将增长三倍，达到 7.5 万亿美元。