如果日本銀行（BOJ）延遲QT並在其6月會議的風險資產中重新啟動QE

全球市場正在密切關注日本銀行（BOJ）即將舉行的貨幣政策會議，該政策將於6月16日至17日舉行。

Global markets are closely watching the Bank of Japan (BOJ)s upcoming monetary policy meeting, which is set to take place on 16-17 June.

全球市場正在密切關注日本銀行（BOJ）即將舉行的貨幣政策會議，該政策將於6月16日至17日舉行。

After keeping interest rates at an ultra-low level for a prolonged period and initiating a program to reduce government bond holdings earlier this year, speculation is growing that the central bank may shift towards a more accommodative position, potentially reintroducing quantitative easing (QE) measures.

在將利率保持在長時間的超低水平上，並啟動了一項計劃以減少今年早些時候政府債券持有的計劃之後，人們越來越多地猜測中央銀行可能會轉向更寬容的立場，並有可能重新引入定量寬鬆（QE）措施。

According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, a shift in Japan’s monetary policy could significantly help Bitcoin [BTC] and other cryptocurrencies.

根據Bitmex和Maelstrom CIO的聯合創始人Arthur Hayes的說法，日本貨幣政策的轉變可能會大大幫助比特幣[BTC]和其他加密貨幣。

If the BOJ delays QT, and restarts selected QE at its June meeting risk assets are going to fly.

如果BOJ延遲了QT，並且在6月的會議風險資產中重新啟動了QE，則將飛行。

For context, Japan’s latest economic data has presented a mixed picture for policymakers. In May, the country’s wholesale inflation slowed notably, with the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) rising by 3.2% year-over-year. This is the weakest pace since September and follows April’s 4.0% increase.

在上下文中，日本的最新經濟數據為決策者帶來了混雜的情況。 5月，該國的批發通貨膨脹率顯著放緩，公司商品價格指數（CGPI）同比增長3.2％。這是自9月以來最弱的速度，隨後4月的4.0％增加。

The deceleration, largely driven by declining import costs for raw materials, may reduce the urgency for the BOJ to adjust interest rates. However, rising prices in categories like food and beverages suggest that companies are still passing on higher input costs to consumers, despite uncertain global conditions and subdued domestic demand.

減速主要是由於原材料進口成本下降而驅動的，可能會降低棚屋的緊迫性調整利率。但是，諸如食品和飲料之類的類別價格上漲表明，儘管全球條件不確定並減輕了國內需求，但公司仍在向消費者傳遞更高的投入成本。

This portion of the report focused on the broader economic backdrop and the central bank’s upcoming decision on whether to maintain or pivot its current monetary stance.

該報告的這一部分集中於更廣泛的經濟背景以及中央銀行即將決定是否維持還是樞紐其目前的貨幣立場。

As wholesale inflation slows, consumer prices will also come under downward pressure with a lag. The BOJ may have lost the opportunity to raise interest rates because inflation will have slowed significantly by the time the fog hanging over Japan’s tariff talks (with the U.S.) clears.

隨著通貨膨脹率的減慢，消費者價格也將在下降壓力下落後。棚屋可能已經失​​去了提高利率的機會，因為到霧中懸掛在日本的關稅會談上（與美國）的清算時，通貨膨脹將大大放緩。

Additionally, Japan’s deepening bond market crisis is casting a shadow over its broader financial stability, as yields on long-term government bonds hit record highs and liquidity concerns are emerging, reminiscent of the 2008 meltdown.

此外，日本的加深債券市場危機對其更廣泛的財務穩定性產生了陰影，因為長期政府債券的收益率創下了創紀錄的高潮，並且流動性問題正在出現，這讓人聯想到2008年的崩潰。

Despite these challenges, the country’s crypto sector has continued to expand, with 32 registered crypto exchanges as of late April, showcasing the growing interest in digital assets among Japanese investors.

儘管面臨這些挑戰，但該國的加密貨幣部門仍在繼續擴展，截至4月下旬，有32次註冊的加密交易所進行了註冊的加密交易所，展示了日本投資者對數字資產的日益增長的興趣。

This contrast is a sign of shifting investor sentiment, as more market participants view Bitcoin as a potential hedge against the traditional financial system’s vulnerabilities, especially amid rising inflation and geopolitical tensions.

這種對比是轉移投資者情緒的跡象，因為越來越多的市場參與者將比特幣視為對傳統金融體系脆弱性的潛在對沖，尤其是在通貨膨脹和地緣政治緊張局勢的上升。

Moreover, with the yen carry trade weakening and economic uncertainties mounting, digital assets like BTC are emerging as safer or higher-yield alternatives in Japan’s evolving financial landscape.

此外，隨著日元的貿易貿易削弱和經濟不確定性的越來越多，像BTC這樣的數字資產在日本不斷發展的金融景觀中成為更安全或更高收益的替代品。

A falling yen often means economic instability or loose monetary policy in Japan, prompting investors to seek safer or higher-yield alternatives. In this environment, Bitcoin could gain appeal as a hedge against currency devaluation and financial uncertainty.

日元下降通常意味著日本的經濟不穩定或鬆散的貨幣政策，促使投資者尋求更安全或更高收益的替代方案。在這種環境中，比特幣可以作為對沖貨幣貶值和財務不確定性的對沖。

Altogether, a weakening yen could act as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin in both local and global contexts.

總的來說，日元可能會在本地和全球環境中充當比特幣的看漲催化劑。