如果日本银行（BOJ）延迟QT并在其6月会议的风险资产中重新启动QE

全球市场正在密切关注日本银行（BOJ）即将举行的货币政策会议，该政策将于6月16日至17日举行。

Global markets are closely watching the Bank of Japan (BOJ)s upcoming monetary policy meeting, which is set to take place on 16-17 June.

全球市场正在密切关注日本银行（BOJ）即将举行的货币政策会议，该政策将于6月16日至17日举行。

After keeping interest rates at an ultra-low level for a prolonged period and initiating a program to reduce government bond holdings earlier this year, speculation is growing that the central bank may shift towards a more accommodative position, potentially reintroducing quantitative easing (QE) measures.

在将利率保持在长时间的超低水平上，并启动了一项计划以减少今年早些时候政府债券持有的计划之后，人们越来越多地猜测中央银行可能会转向更宽容的立场，并有可能重新引入定量宽松（QE）措施。

According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, a shift in Japan’s monetary policy could significantly help Bitcoin [BTC] and other cryptocurrencies.

根据Bitmex和Maelstrom CIO的联合创始人Arthur Hayes的说法，日本货币政策的转变可能会大大帮助比特币[BTC]和其他加密货币。

If the BOJ delays QT, and restarts selected QE at its June meeting risk assets are going to fly.

如果BOJ延迟了QT，并且在6月的会议风险资产中重新启动了QE，则将飞行。

For context, Japan’s latest economic data has presented a mixed picture for policymakers. In May, the country’s wholesale inflation slowed notably, with the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) rising by 3.2% year-over-year. This is the weakest pace since September and follows April’s 4.0% increase.

在上下文中，日本的最新经济数据为决策者带来了混杂的情况。 5月，该国的批发通货膨胀率显着放缓，公司商品价格指数（CGPI）同比增长3.2％。这是自9月以来最弱的速度，随后4月的4.0％增加。

The deceleration, largely driven by declining import costs for raw materials, may reduce the urgency for the BOJ to adjust interest rates. However, rising prices in categories like food and beverages suggest that companies are still passing on higher input costs to consumers, despite uncertain global conditions and subdued domestic demand.

减速主要是由于原材料进口成本下降而驱动的，可能会降低棚屋的紧迫性调整利率。但是，诸如食品和饮料之类的类别价格上涨表明，尽管全球条件不确定并减轻了国内需求，但公司仍在向消费者传递更高的投入成本。

This portion of the report focused on the broader economic backdrop and the central bank’s upcoming decision on whether to maintain or pivot its current monetary stance.

该报告的这一部分集中于更广泛的经济背景以及中央银行即将决定是否维持还是枢纽其目前的货币立场。

As wholesale inflation slows, consumer prices will also come under downward pressure with a lag. The BOJ may have lost the opportunity to raise interest rates because inflation will have slowed significantly by the time the fog hanging over Japan’s tariff talks (with the U.S.) clears.

随着通货膨胀率的减慢，消费者价格也将在下降压力下落后。棚屋可能已经失去了提高利率的机会，因为到雾中悬挂在日本的关税会谈上（与美国）的清算时，通货膨胀将大大放缓。

Additionally, Japan’s deepening bond market crisis is casting a shadow over its broader financial stability, as yields on long-term government bonds hit record highs and liquidity concerns are emerging, reminiscent of the 2008 meltdown.

此外，日本的加深债券市场危机对其更广泛的财务稳定性产生了阴影，因为长期政府债券的收益率创下了创纪录的高潮，并且流动性问题正在出现，这让人联想到2008年的崩溃。

Despite these challenges, the country’s crypto sector has continued to expand, with 32 registered crypto exchanges as of late April, showcasing the growing interest in digital assets among Japanese investors.

尽管面临这些挑战，但该国的加密货币部门仍在继续扩展，截至4月下旬，有32次注册的加密交易所进行了注册的加密交易所，展示了日本投资者对数字资产的日益增长的兴趣。

This contrast is a sign of shifting investor sentiment, as more market participants view Bitcoin as a potential hedge against the traditional financial system’s vulnerabilities, especially amid rising inflation and geopolitical tensions.

这种对比是转移投资者情绪的迹象，因为越来越多的市场参与者将比特币视为对传统金融体系脆弱性的潜在对冲，尤其是在通货膨胀和地缘政治紧张局势的上升。

Moreover, with the yen carry trade weakening and economic uncertainties mounting, digital assets like BTC are emerging as safer or higher-yield alternatives in Japan’s evolving financial landscape.

此外，随着日元的贸易贸易削弱和经济不确定性的越来越多，像BTC这样的数字资产在日本不断发展的金融景观中成为更安全或更高收益的替代品。

A falling yen often means economic instability or loose monetary policy in Japan, prompting investors to seek safer or higher-yield alternatives. In this environment, Bitcoin could gain appeal as a hedge against currency devaluation and financial uncertainty.

日元下降通常意味着日本的经济不稳定或松散的货币政策，促使投资者寻求更安全或更高收益的替代方案。在这种环境中，比特币可以作为对冲货币贬值和财务不确定性的对冲。

Altogether, a weakening yen could act as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin in both local and global contexts.

总的来说，日元可能会在本地和全球环境中充当比特币的看涨催化剂。