亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）警告比特幣（BTC）貿易商，將全球市場的艱難水域支撐，因為全球市場支撐了另一輪經濟緊張局勢

隨著唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）期望在未來幾週內重新引入單方面關稅，海耶斯（Hayes）認為，這種政策轉變可能會引發加密貨幣的新易變率。

The dust has settled on an eventful week for crypto markets, but already, there are rumblings of fresh turbulence brewing.

塵埃已經在一個充滿加密市場的一周中定居，但已經有新鮮的湍流釀造的隆隆聲。

As global markets prepare for another round of economic tension, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is advising traders to "get ready for some rough waters."

隨著全球市場為另一回合的經濟緊張做準備，Bitmex聯合創始人Arthur Hayes建議交易者“為一些粗糙的水域做好準備”。

The former derivatives exec, known for his bullish outcall on Bitcoin to $138,000 by December, believes the threat of Donald Trump reintroducing unilateral tariffs in the coming weeks could spark renewed volatility in crypto.

這位前衍生工具的執行官以其在比特幣上的看漲比特幣的看漲期權而聞名，到12月的$ 138,000，他認為唐納德·特朗普在未來幾週內重新引入單方面關稅的威脅可能會引發加密貨幣的重新波動。

Bitcoin's recent momentum stalled just below $110,000 despite a U.S.-China trade deal and a softer-than-expected inflation print. Neither development managed to ignite the bullish push needed for a breakout, suggesting broader uncertainty still weighs heavily on risk assets.

儘管美國 - 中國貿易協議和超過預期的通貨膨脹印刷品，比特幣最近的動力卻低於110,000美元。這兩個發展都無法點燃突破所需的看漲推動力，這表明更廣泛的不確定性仍然嚴重影響風險資產。

"Perhaps we can rally FOMO-style to new highs if we get a few WTI [oil futures] closes above $90 and/or U.S. futures hubris-driven all-time highs," said Hayes. "But don't count on it."

海斯說：“也許如果我們獲得一些WTI（石油期貨）收盤超過90美元和/或美國期貨自負的歷史高高，也許我們可以將FOMO風格升級到新的高點。” “但是不要指望它。”

He advised market participants not to panic but remain alert, citing macro headwinds including the potential tariff wave and stagnant Fed policy.

他建議市場參與者不要驚慌，而要保持警惕，理由是包括潛在的關稅浪潮和停滯的美聯儲政策在內。

While Hayes has previously argued the U.S. central bank would need to shift back to monetary easing, the latest inflation data has dampened hopes for imminent rate cuts.

儘管海耶斯此前曾認為，美國中央銀行需要轉移到貨幣寬鬆，但最新的通貨膨脹數據削弱了對即將降低利率的希望。

"I am not expecting the Fed to cut rates at the September meeting," he said. "The market is pricing in a 50% chance of a rate cut this year, but I personally assign a 15% probability."

他說：“我沒想到美聯儲在9月的會議上降低利率。​​” “市場的價格為今年的50％的機會降低了50％，但我個人分配了15％的概率。”

Trump's renewed tariff rhetoric has already spooked traditional markets. Equity futures have dipped in both the U.S. and Europe, the dollar weakened, and investors are rotating into safe havens like gold and treasuries.

特朗普的重新關稅言論已經嚇到了傳統市場。股票期貨在美國和歐洲都下降了，美元削弱了，投資者正在旋轉到諸如黃金和國庫之類的避風港。

Behind the scenes, Trump's team is also said to be pursuing bilateral trade deals with countries like India and Japan—moves that could further reshape global trade dynamics.

在幕後，據說特朗普的團隊正在與印度和日本等國家達成雙邊貿易協定，這些交易可能會進一步重塑全球貿易動力。

With economic policy in flux and Bitcoin itself stuck below a key technical resistance zone, the market's next moves may less hinge on technicals and more on geopolitics.

隨著通量經濟政策和比特幣本身陷入關鍵技術抵抗區以下，市場的下一步行動可能會減少對技術的關鍵，而更多地涉及地緣政治。

"The technical picture will sort itself out if the macroeconomic wind shifts," said Hayes. "But until then, we are in no man's land."

海耶斯說：“如果宏觀經濟風轉移，技術圖片將使自己整理出來。” “但是直到那時，我們在沒有人的土地上。”