Arthur Hayes Warns Bitcoin (BTC) Traders to Brace for Rough Waters Ahead as Global Markets Brace for Another Round of Economic Tension

With Donald Trump expected to reintroduce unilateral tariffs in the coming weeks, Hayes believes this policy shift could spark renewed volatility in crypto.

The dust has settled on an eventful week for crypto markets, but already, there are rumblings of fresh turbulence brewing.

As global markets prepare for another round of economic tension, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is advising traders to "get ready for some rough waters."

The former derivatives exec, known for his bullish outcall on Bitcoin to $138,000 by December, believes the threat of Donald Trump reintroducing unilateral tariffs in the coming weeks could spark renewed volatility in crypto.

Bitcoin's recent momentum stalled just below $110,000 despite a U.S.-China trade deal and a softer-than-expected inflation print. Neither development managed to ignite the bullish push needed for a breakout, suggesting broader uncertainty still weighs heavily on risk assets.

"Perhaps we can rally FOMO-style to new highs if we get a few WTI [oil futures] closes above $90 and/or U.S. futures hubris-driven all-time highs," said Hayes. "But don't count on it."

He advised market participants not to panic but remain alert, citing macro headwinds including the potential tariff wave and stagnant Fed policy.

While Hayes has previously argued the U.S. central bank would need to shift back to monetary easing, the latest inflation data has dampened hopes for imminent rate cuts.

"I am not expecting the Fed to cut rates at the September meeting," he said. "The market is pricing in a 50% chance of a rate cut this year, but I personally assign a 15% probability."

Trump's renewed tariff rhetoric has already spooked traditional markets. Equity futures have dipped in both the U.S. and Europe, the dollar weakened, and investors are rotating into safe havens like gold and treasuries.

Behind the scenes, Trump's team is also said to be pursuing bilateral trade deals with countries like India and Japan—moves that could further reshape global trade dynamics.

With economic policy in flux and Bitcoin itself stuck below a key technical resistance zone, the market's next moves may less hinge on technicals and more on geopolitics.

"The technical picture will sort itself out if the macroeconomic wind shifts," said Hayes. "But until then, we are in no man's land."