亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）警告比特币（BTC）贸易商，将全球市场的艰难水域支撑，因为全球市场支撑了另一轮经济紧张局势

随着唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）期望在未来几周内重新引入单方面关税，海耶斯（Hayes）认为，这种政策转变可能会引发加密货币的新易变率。

The dust has settled on an eventful week for crypto markets, but already, there are rumblings of fresh turbulence brewing.

尘埃已经在一个充满加密市场的一周中定居，但已经有新鲜的湍流酿造的隆隆声。

As global markets prepare for another round of economic tension, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is advising traders to "get ready for some rough waters."

随着全球市场为另一回合的经济紧张做准备，Bitmex联合创始人Arthur Hayes建议交易者“为一些粗糙的水域做好准备”。

The former derivatives exec, known for his bullish outcall on Bitcoin to $138,000 by December, believes the threat of Donald Trump reintroducing unilateral tariffs in the coming weeks could spark renewed volatility in crypto.

这位前衍生工具的执行官以其在比特币上的看涨比特币的看涨期权而闻名，到12月的$ 138,000，他认为唐纳德·特朗普在未来几周内重新引入单方面关税的威胁可能会引发加密货币的重新波动。

Bitcoin's recent momentum stalled just below $110,000 despite a U.S.-China trade deal and a softer-than-expected inflation print. Neither development managed to ignite the bullish push needed for a breakout, suggesting broader uncertainty still weighs heavily on risk assets.

尽管美国 - 中国贸易协议和超过预期的通货膨胀印刷品，比特币最近的动力却低于110,000美元。这两个发展都无法点燃突破所需的看涨推动力，这表明更广泛的不确定性仍然严重影响风险资产。

"Perhaps we can rally FOMO-style to new highs if we get a few WTI [oil futures] closes above $90 and/or U.S. futures hubris-driven all-time highs," said Hayes. "But don't count on it."

海斯说：“也许如果我们获得一些WTI（石油期货）收盘超过90美元和/或美国期货自负的历史高高，也许我们可以将FOMO风格升级到新的高点。” “但是不要指望它。”

He advised market participants not to panic but remain alert, citing macro headwinds including the potential tariff wave and stagnant Fed policy.

他建议市场参与者不要惊慌，而要保持警惕，理由是包括潜在的关税浪潮和停滞的美联储政策在内。

While Hayes has previously argued the U.S. central bank would need to shift back to monetary easing, the latest inflation data has dampened hopes for imminent rate cuts.

尽管海耶斯此前曾认为，美国中央银行需要转移到货币宽松，但最新的通货膨胀数据削弱了对即将降低利率的希望。

"I am not expecting the Fed to cut rates at the September meeting," he said. "The market is pricing in a 50% chance of a rate cut this year, but I personally assign a 15% probability."

他说：“我没想到美联储在9月的会议上降低利率。​​” “市场的价格为今年的50％的机会降低了50％，但我个人分配了15％的概率。”

Trump's renewed tariff rhetoric has already spooked traditional markets. Equity futures have dipped in both the U.S. and Europe, the dollar weakened, and investors are rotating into safe havens like gold and treasuries.

特朗普的重新关税言论已经吓到了传统市场。股票期货在美国和欧洲都下降了，美元削弱了，投资者正在旋转到诸如黄金和国库之类的避风港。

Behind the scenes, Trump's team is also said to be pursuing bilateral trade deals with countries like India and Japan—moves that could further reshape global trade dynamics.

在幕后，据说特朗普的团队正在与印度和日本等国家达成双边贸易协定，这些交易可能会进一步重塑全球贸易动力。

With economic policy in flux and Bitcoin itself stuck below a key technical resistance zone, the market's next moves may less hinge on technicals and more on geopolitics.

随着通量经济政策和比特币本身陷入关键技术抵抗区以下，市场的下一步行动可能会减少对技术的关键，而更多地涉及地缘政治。

"The technical picture will sort itself out if the macroeconomic wind shifts," said Hayes. "But until then, we are in no man's land."

海耶斯说：“如果宏观经济风转移，技术图片将使自己整理出来。” “但是直到那时，我们在没有人的土地上。”