亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）預測，BTC可能達到20萬美元，預計將在2028年中斷100萬美元

亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）是比特幣早期的標誌性人物。他在2014年共同創立了離岸交易所Bitmex，後來遇到了法律問題

Arthur Hayes, a co-founder of the offshore exchange BitMEX and a Bitcoin bull, predicts that the flagship cryptocurrency could hit $200,000 in the short term and is expected to break $1 million in 2028.

Arthur Hayes是離岸交易所Bitmex和Bitcoin Bull的聯合創始人，他預測，旗艦加密貨幣可能會在短期內達到200,000美元，預計2028年將損失100萬美元。

During an interview with Fortune contributing writer Anna Tutova at Token-2049 in Dubai, Hayes, who is currently managing his family fund Maelstrom, shared his views on the current market.

在接受《財富》撰稿人安娜·圖托瓦（Anna Tutova）在迪拜的Token-2049的採訪中，海耶斯（Hayes）目前正在管理他的家庭基金Maelstrom，他對當前市場分享了他的看法。

The interview has been condensed and edited for clarity.

採訪已被凝結和編輯，以清晰。

Q1: About the real deficit of the United States

問題1：關於美國的真正赤字

Anna: You called the U.S. Treasury’s recent lending operations a “smoke screen.” Why?

安娜：您將美國財政部最近的貸款業務稱為“煙幕”。為什麼？

Arthur: The Treasury has been draining its "checking account" (Treasury General Account, TGA) and using "special measures" (underfunded government projects) to circumvent borrowing limits, resulting in a drop in TGA from $750 billion to $450 billion this quarter, which means that $300 billion in spending was not achieved through new debt, and the actual borrowing scale far exceeded the official data.

亞瑟（Arthur）：財政部一直在排水“支票帳戶”（財政部總帳戶，TGA），並使用“特殊措施”（資金資金不足的政府項目）來規避借貸限制，從而使TGA從本季度下降了7500億美元降至45000億美元，這意味著在企業方面的3000億美元不超過了新的債務範圍，並截止了債務範圍，並越來越多。

This is very confusing. Because we are in a debt ceiling period, in theory the U.S. government cannot borrow more on a net basis, but they use various accounting tricks to maintain spending without breaking the ceiling. From January to March 2025, the Treasury borrowed 22% more than the same period last year, and the deficit is actually expanding.

這很令人困惑。因為我們處於債務上限時期，從理論上講，美國政府不能在淨基礎上借更多，但是他們使用各種會計技巧來維持支出而不會破壞上限。從2025年1月到2025年3月，財政部比去年同期多22％，而且赤字實際上正在擴大。

Q2: About market liquidity

問題2：關於市場流動性

Anna: What does this mean for Bitcoin?

安娜：這對比特幣意味著什麼？

Arthur: I think the actual borrowing needs of the U.S. government are much greater than the public data shows, so Treasury Secretary Bessent will have to issue more debt and will need to provide maximum leverage to these debts through the banking system. The end result is a further flood of global dollar liquidity because the U.S. government is increasing spending.

亞瑟：我認為，美國政府的實際借貸需求比公共數據顯示的要大得多，因此財政部長Bessent將不得不發行更多的債務，並且需要通過銀行製度為這些債務提供最大的槓桿作用。最終結果是全球美元的流動性進一步氾濫，因為美國政府正在增加支出。

That, in a nutshell, is what the repo operation is all about and why I believe it will increase market liquidity. Based on this, I believe Bitcoin bottomed on April 9 and will continue to rise sharply as the government continues to borrow and Bessent secures low-cost funding.

簡而言之，這就是回購業務的全部內容，以及為什麼我認為這會增加市場流動性。基於此，我相信比特幣將於4月9日觸底，並且隨著政府繼續借貸和持續的資金，比特幣將繼續急劇上升。

Q3: About the Shanzhai Season

Q3：關於Shanzhai季節

Anna: So how high does Bitcoin need to rise to start the altcoin market? What are the key factors that drive the altcoin season?

安娜：那麼，比特幣需要上升才能開始替代幣市場？推動山寨幣季節的關鍵因素是什麼？

Arthur: I think Bitcoin needs to break through $110,000 and continue to rise in volume to the $150,000–200,000 range. I expect this to happen in the summer or early third quarter, and then funds will start to rotate into various altcoins.

亞瑟（Arthur）：我認為比特幣需要突破110,000美元，並繼續增加數量，達到150,000–200,000美元。我希望這會在夏季或第三季度發生，然後資金將開始旋轉成各種山寨幣。

Q4: Expected increase in bull market

問題4：預計牛市

Anna: Do you think the next altcoin market will see a crazy super-cycle surge like in 2021? Or will it only rebound slightly?

安娜：您認為下一個Altcoin市場會像2021年一樣看到瘋狂的超級循環激增嗎？還是只能稍微反彈？

Arthur: It is unlikely that the grand event of 2021, where all coins skyrocketed 100 times, will be repeated. New narrative hotspots will emerge in the market, and some coins may rise wildly, but there is a reason why those long-term stagnant "dinosaur coins" in your holdings do not rise. Many projects have inflated valuations, low circulation, lack of real users and revenue, and rely solely on exchanges to hype up their coins. Now the price has fallen by 95%. I don't think they will have a bright performance in the next cycle.

亞瑟：2021年的盛大事件不太可能重複100次猛增100次。新的敘事熱點將出現在市場上，有些硬幣可能會瘋狂地上升，但是有一個原因，為什麼您的股份中那些長期停滯的“恐龍硬幣”不會上升。許多項目的估值，低流通，缺乏真正的用戶和收入，僅依靠交換來炒作硬幣。現在，價格下跌了95％。我認為他們不會在下一個週期中表現出色。

Q5: Regarding personal income expectations

問題5：關於個人收入期望

Anna: What is your expected rate of return in this round of market? What is the target price and rate of return you usually set?

安娜：您在這一輪市場中的預期收益率是多少？您通常設定的目標價格和收益率是多少？

Arthur: At least it has to outperform the rise of Bitcoin. If we decide to allocate funds, the underlying assets must be able to exceed the return of Bitcoin.

亞瑟：至少它必須勝過比特幣的興起。如果我們決定分配資金，那麼基礎資產必須能夠超過比特幣的退貨。

Q6: About Trump

問題6：關於特朗普

Anna: What are your expectations for Trump’s encryption policy?

安娜：您對特朗普的加密政策有何期望？

Arthur: His team should introduce policies that are favorable to crypto, but this does not mean that the specific projects you hold will definitely appreciate, nor does it mean that the policies will proceed according to your expected schedule.

亞瑟：他的團隊應該介紹有利於加密貨幣的政策，但這並不意味著您持有的特定項目肯定會欣賞，也不意味著政策將根據您的預期時間表進行。

The market's expectations are so high that some even believe that crypto policy will be Trump's top priority. But don't forget that Trump is a politician and he has too many higher priority matters to deal with. We need to be patient.

市場的期望如此之高，以至於有些人甚至認為加密政策將是特朗普的重中之重。但是不要忘記特朗普是一名政治家，他有太多的優先事項要處理。我們需要耐心等待。

Q7: About gold

問題7：關於黃金

Anna: We have seen a sharp rise in gold amidst the backdrop of heightened market uncertainty. Do you have an allocation to gold assets, or are you completely focused on cryptocurrencies?

安娜：在市場不確定性增長的背景下，我們看到了黃金的急劇上升。您是否對黃金資產分配，還是完全專注於加密貨幣？

Arthur: I am a long-term holder of gold, with physical gold bars in my vault, and I also own a lot of gold mining stocks - these are still undervalued given the surge in gold prices. I think gold still has a lot of room to rise because central banks are continuing to increase their holdings.

亞瑟：我是黃金的長期持有者，擁有物理金條，我的金庫中也擁有許多黃金開採股 - 鑑於黃金價格上漲，這些股票仍然被低估。我認為黃金仍然有很大的上升空間，因為中央銀行正在繼續增加其持股。