亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）预测，BTC可能达到20万美元，预计将在2028年中断100万美元

亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）是比特币早期的标志性人物。他在2014年共同创立了离岸交易所Bitmex，后来遇到了法律问题

Arthur Hayes, a co-founder of the offshore exchange BitMEX and a Bitcoin bull, predicts that the flagship cryptocurrency could hit $200,000 in the short term and is expected to break $1 million in 2028.

Arthur Hayes是离岸交易所Bitmex和Bitcoin Bull的联合创始人，他预测，旗舰加密货币可能会在短期内达到200,000美元，预计2028年将损失100万美元。

During an interview with Fortune contributing writer Anna Tutova at Token-2049 in Dubai, Hayes, who is currently managing his family fund Maelstrom, shared his views on the current market.

在接受《财富》撰稿人安娜·图托瓦（Anna Tutova）在迪拜的Token-2049的采访中，海耶斯（Hayes）目前正在管理他的家庭基金Maelstrom，他对当前市场分享了他的看法。

The interview has been condensed and edited for clarity.

采访已被凝结和编辑，以清晰。

Q1: About the real deficit of the United States

问题1：关于美国的真正赤字

Anna: You called the U.S. Treasury’s recent lending operations a “smoke screen.” Why?

安娜：您将美国财政部最近的贷款业务称为“烟幕”。为什么？

Arthur: The Treasury has been draining its "checking account" (Treasury General Account, TGA) and using "special measures" (underfunded government projects) to circumvent borrowing limits, resulting in a drop in TGA from $750 billion to $450 billion this quarter, which means that $300 billion in spending was not achieved through new debt, and the actual borrowing scale far exceeded the official data.

亚瑟（Arthur）：财政部一直在排水“支票帐户”（财政部总帐户，TGA），并使用“特殊措施”（资金资金不足的政府项目）来规避借贷限制，从而使TGA从本季度下降了7500亿美元降至45000亿美元，这意味着在企业方面的3000亿美元不超过了新的债务范围，并截止了债务范围，并越来越多。

This is very confusing. Because we are in a debt ceiling period, in theory the U.S. government cannot borrow more on a net basis, but they use various accounting tricks to maintain spending without breaking the ceiling. From January to March 2025, the Treasury borrowed 22% more than the same period last year, and the deficit is actually expanding.

这很令人困惑。因为我们处于债务上限时期，从理论上讲，美国政府不能在净基础上借更多，但是他们使用各种会计技巧来维持支出而不会破坏上限。从2025年1月到2025年3月，财政部比去年同期多22％，而且赤字实际上正在扩大。

Q2: About market liquidity

问题2：关于市场流动性

Anna: What does this mean for Bitcoin?

安娜：这对比特币意味着什么？

Arthur: I think the actual borrowing needs of the U.S. government are much greater than the public data shows, so Treasury Secretary Bessent will have to issue more debt and will need to provide maximum leverage to these debts through the banking system. The end result is a further flood of global dollar liquidity because the U.S. government is increasing spending.

亚瑟：我认为，美国政府的实际借贷需求比公共数据显示的要大得多，因此财政部长Bessent将不得不发行更多的债务，并且需要通过银行制度为这些债务提供最大的杠杆作用。最终结果是全球美元的流动性进一步泛滥，因为美国政府正在增加支出。

That, in a nutshell, is what the repo operation is all about and why I believe it will increase market liquidity. Based on this, I believe Bitcoin bottomed on April 9 and will continue to rise sharply as the government continues to borrow and Bessent secures low-cost funding.

简而言之，这就是回购业务的全部内容，以及为什么我认为这会增加市场流动性。基于此，我相信比特币将于4月9日触底，并且随着政府继续借贷和持续的资金，比特币将继续急剧上升。

Q3: About the Shanzhai Season

Q3：关于Shanzhai季节

Anna: So how high does Bitcoin need to rise to start the altcoin market? What are the key factors that drive the altcoin season?

安娜：那么，比特币需要上升才能开始替代币市场？推动山寨币季节的关键因素是什么？

Arthur: I think Bitcoin needs to break through $110,000 and continue to rise in volume to the $150,000–200,000 range. I expect this to happen in the summer or early third quarter, and then funds will start to rotate into various altcoins.

亚瑟（Arthur）：我认为比特币需要突破110,000美元，并继续增加数量，达到150,000–200,000美元。我希望这会在夏季或第三季度发生，然后资金将开始旋转成各种山寨币。

Q4: Expected increase in bull market

问题4：预计牛市

Anna: Do you think the next altcoin market will see a crazy super-cycle surge like in 2021? Or will it only rebound slightly?

安娜：您认为下一个Altcoin市场会像2021年一样看到疯狂的超级循环激增吗？还是只能稍微反弹？

Arthur: It is unlikely that the grand event of 2021, where all coins skyrocketed 100 times, will be repeated. New narrative hotspots will emerge in the market, and some coins may rise wildly, but there is a reason why those long-term stagnant "dinosaur coins" in your holdings do not rise. Many projects have inflated valuations, low circulation, lack of real users and revenue, and rely solely on exchanges to hype up their coins. Now the price has fallen by 95%. I don't think they will have a bright performance in the next cycle.

亚瑟：2021年的盛大事件不太可能重复100次猛增100次。新的叙事热点将出现在市场上，有些硬币可能会疯狂地上升，但是有一个原因，为什么您的股份中那些长期停滞的“恐龙硬币”不会上升。许多项目的估值，低流通，缺乏真正的用户和收入，仅依靠交换来炒作硬币。现在，价格下跌了95％。我认为他们不会在下一个周期中表现出色。

Q5: Regarding personal income expectations

问题5：关于个人收入期望

Anna: What is your expected rate of return in this round of market? What is the target price and rate of return you usually set?

安娜：您在这一轮市场中的预期收益率是多少？您通常设定的目标价格和收益率是多少？

Arthur: At least it has to outperform the rise of Bitcoin. If we decide to allocate funds, the underlying assets must be able to exceed the return of Bitcoin.

亚瑟：至少它必须胜过比特币的兴起。如果我们决定分配资金，那么基础资产必须能够超过比特币的退货。

Q6: About Trump

问题6：关于特朗普

Anna: What are your expectations for Trump’s encryption policy?

安娜：您对特朗普的加密政策有何期望？

Arthur: His team should introduce policies that are favorable to crypto, but this does not mean that the specific projects you hold will definitely appreciate, nor does it mean that the policies will proceed according to your expected schedule.

亚瑟：他的团队应该介绍有利于加密货币的政策，但这并不意味着您持有的特定项目肯定会欣赏，也不意味着政策将根据您的预期时间表进行。

The market's expectations are so high that some even believe that crypto policy will be Trump's top priority. But don't forget that Trump is a politician and he has too many higher priority matters to deal with. We need to be patient.

市场的期望如此之高，以至于有些人甚至认为加密政策将是特朗普的重中之重。但是不要忘记特朗普是一名政治家，他有太多的优先事项要处理。我们需要耐心等待。

Q7: About gold

问题7：关于黄金

Anna: We have seen a sharp rise in gold amidst the backdrop of heightened market uncertainty. Do you have an allocation to gold assets, or are you completely focused on cryptocurrencies?

安娜：在市场不确定性增长的背景下，我们看到了黄金的急剧上升。您是否对黄金资产分配，还是完全专注于加密货币？

Arthur: I am a long-term holder of gold, with physical gold bars in my vault, and I also own a lot of gold mining stocks - these are still undervalued given the surge in gold prices. I think gold still has a lot of room to rise because central banks are continuing to increase their holdings.

亚瑟：我是黄金的长期持有者，拥有物理金条，我的金库中也拥有许多黄金开采股 - 鉴于黄金价格上涨，这些股票仍然被低估。我认为黄金仍然有很大的上升空间，因为中央银行正在继续增加其持股。