Arthur Hayes Predicts BTC Could Reach $200,000 and is Expected to Break $1M in 2028

Arthur Hayes is an iconic figure in the early days of Bitcoin. He co-founded the offshore exchange BitMEX in 2014 and later faced legal problems

Arthur Hayes, a co-founder of the offshore exchange BitMEX and a Bitcoin bull, predicts that the flagship cryptocurrency could hit $200,000 in the short term and is expected to break $1 million in 2028.

During an interview with Fortune contributing writer Anna Tutova at Token-2049 in Dubai, Hayes, who is currently managing his family fund Maelstrom, shared his views on the current market.

The interview has been condensed and edited for clarity.

Q1: About the real deficit of the United States

Anna: You called the U.S. Treasury’s recent lending operations a “smoke screen.” Why?

Arthur: The Treasury has been draining its "checking account" (Treasury General Account, TGA) and using "special measures" (underfunded government projects) to circumvent borrowing limits, resulting in a drop in TGA from $750 billion to $450 billion this quarter, which means that $300 billion in spending was not achieved through new debt, and the actual borrowing scale far exceeded the official data.

This is very confusing. Because we are in a debt ceiling period, in theory the U.S. government cannot borrow more on a net basis, but they use various accounting tricks to maintain spending without breaking the ceiling. From January to March 2025, the Treasury borrowed 22% more than the same period last year, and the deficit is actually expanding.

Q2: About market liquidity

Anna: What does this mean for Bitcoin?

Arthur: I think the actual borrowing needs of the U.S. government are much greater than the public data shows, so Treasury Secretary Bessent will have to issue more debt and will need to provide maximum leverage to these debts through the banking system. The end result is a further flood of global dollar liquidity because the U.S. government is increasing spending.

That, in a nutshell, is what the repo operation is all about and why I believe it will increase market liquidity. Based on this, I believe Bitcoin bottomed on April 9 and will continue to rise sharply as the government continues to borrow and Bessent secures low-cost funding.

Q3: About the Shanzhai Season

Anna: So how high does Bitcoin need to rise to start the altcoin market? What are the key factors that drive the altcoin season?

Arthur: I think Bitcoin needs to break through $110,000 and continue to rise in volume to the $150,000–200,000 range. I expect this to happen in the summer or early third quarter, and then funds will start to rotate into various altcoins.

Q4: Expected increase in bull market

Anna: Do you think the next altcoin market will see a crazy super-cycle surge like in 2021? Or will it only rebound slightly?

Arthur: It is unlikely that the grand event of 2021, where all coins skyrocketed 100 times, will be repeated. New narrative hotspots will emerge in the market, and some coins may rise wildly, but there is a reason why those long-term stagnant "dinosaur coins" in your holdings do not rise. Many projects have inflated valuations, low circulation, lack of real users and revenue, and rely solely on exchanges to hype up their coins. Now the price has fallen by 95%. I don't think they will have a bright performance in the next cycle.

Q5: Regarding personal income expectations

Anna: What is your expected rate of return in this round of market? What is the target price and rate of return you usually set?

Arthur: At least it has to outperform the rise of Bitcoin. If we decide to allocate funds, the underlying assets must be able to exceed the return of Bitcoin.

Q6: About Trump

Anna: What are your expectations for Trump’s encryption policy?

Arthur: His team should introduce policies that are favorable to crypto, but this does not mean that the specific projects you hold will definitely appreciate, nor does it mean that the policies will proceed according to your expected schedule.

The market's expectations are so high that some even believe that crypto policy will be Trump's top priority. But don't forget that Trump is a politician and he has too many higher priority matters to deal with. We need to be patient.

Q7: About gold

Anna: We have seen a sharp rise in gold amidst the backdrop of heightened market uncertainty. Do you have an allocation to gold assets, or are you completely focused on cryptocurrencies?

Arthur: I am a long-term holder of gold, with physical gold bars in my vault, and I also own a lot of gold mining stocks - these are still undervalued given the surge in gold prices. I think gold still has a lot of room to rise because central banks are continuing to increase their holdings.