套利主導比特幣 ETF 格局

最近的分析表明，流入比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的很大一部分資金是由套利策略驅動的

Recent analyses suggest that a significant portion of the capital flow into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is driven by arbitrage strategies rather than direct investment from retail traders.

最近的分析表明，流入比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的很大一部分資金是由套利策略驅動的，而不是來自散戶交易者的直接投資。

Particularly, Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision, has highlighted this trend based on data concerning these funds’ ownership and trading patterns.

特別是，Real Vision 執行長 Raoul Pal 根據這些基金的所有權和交易模式的數據強調了這一趨勢。

Institutional Involvement And Market Movements

機構參與與市場趨勢

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal highlighted the predominance of arbitrage activities in the current Bitcoin spot ETF environment. His observations are backed by analyses indicating that around two-thirds of the net inflows can be attributed to arbitrage trading, particularly among the top institutional holders of these funds.

Real Vision 執行長 Raoul Pal 強調了當前比特幣現貨 ETF 環境中套利活動的主導地位。他的觀察得到了分析的支持，分析顯示約三分之二的淨流入可歸因於套利交易，尤其是這些基金的頂級機構持有者。

Upon examining the behaviors of the largest holders of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States, it’s clear that hedge funds and large institutional investors play a pivotal role.

透過研究美國比特幣現貨 ETF 最大持有者的行為，可以明顯看出對沖基金和大型機構投資者發揮關鍵作用。

Data shared by Tom Dauvley, a managing partner at MV Capital, shows that the top 80 holders, primarily hedge funds, manage assets amounting to approximately $10.26 billion of the total $15.42 billion in net inflows, representing a significant concentration of market power.

MV Capital管理合夥人Tom Dauvley分享的數據顯示，前80名持有人（主要是對沖基金）管理的資產在154.2億美元淨流入總額中約為102.6億美元，代表著市場力量的高度集中。

Millennium Management is the largest single holder, with investments spread across multiple ETF issuers, including prominent names like Bitwise, Grayscale, Fidelity, BlackRock, ARK, and 21Shares.

Millennium Management 是最大的單一持有人，其投資分佈在多個 ETF 發行人中，包括 Bitwise、Grayscale、Fidelity、BlackRock、ARK 和 21Shares 等知名公司。

According to Pal, the nature of these inflows points predominantly towards arbitrage. Arbitrage in ETFs involves capitalizing on the price discrepancies between the ETF’s net asset value and the underlying Bitcoin price.

帕爾表示，這些資金流入的性質主要指向套利。 ETF 套利涉及利用 ETF 資產淨值與基礎比特幣價格之間的價格差異。

Despite these observations, there is debate about how arbitrage influences overall ETF flows. Some market participants, like Joseph B., a crypto trader, argue that arbitrage might constitute less than 15% of total flows when considering the broader spectrum of US Bitcoin ETFs, which collectively manage over $42 billion in assets.

儘管有這些觀察結果，但關於套利如何影響整體 ETF 流量仍存在爭議。加密貨幣交易員 Joseph B. 等一些市場參與者認為，考慮到更廣泛的美國比特幣 ETF（這些基金總共管理超過 420 億美元的資產），套利可能只佔總流量的不到 15%。

Hmmmmm don’t necessarily agree. Excl GBTC, there is 605,000 BTC ($42 Billion)in ETFs

嗯嗯，不一定同意。不包括 GBTC，ETF 中有 605,000 BTC（420 億美元）

Short interest on the CME (The only place institutions would be doing their basis trade?) has about 91,000 in BTC ($6 Billion) shorts.

CME 的空頭利息（機構進行基差交易的唯一場所？）大約有 91,000 個 BTC（60 億美元）空頭部位。

The recent inflows could certainly be attributed to the…

最近的資金流入肯定可以歸因於…

— Joseph B (@Packin_Sats) June 11, 2024

— Joseph B (@Packin_Sats) 2024 年 6 月 11 日

Bitcoin ETF Landscape Shows Arbitrage Dominance

比特幣 ETF 版圖顯示套利主導地位

Currently, BTC is priced at $69,523, having increased by 3.5% in the last 24 hours after a recent CPI report indicating a slowing down in inflation in the US. Notably, this performance from BTC marks a recovery from a week-long decline in value.

目前，BTC 價格為 69,523 美元，在最近的 CPI 報告顯示美國通膨放緩後，過去 24 小時內上漲了 3.5%。值得注意的是，比特幣的這一表現標誌著其價值從為期一周的下跌中恢復過來。

Before this price move, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw significant net outflows, with a total of $200 million withdrawn on Tuesday, concluding a period of net outflows earlier this week that halted a streak of net inflows.

在此次價格變動之前，美國現貨比特幣 ETF 出現大幅淨流出，週二共撤資 2 億美元，結束了本週早些時候的淨流出期，並終止了連續淨流入。

Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) experienced the highest withdrawals of roughly $121 million, while Ark Invest’s ARKB reported $56 million in net outflows.

Grayscale 的比特幣信託 (GBTC) 的提款額最高，約 1.21 億美元，而 Ark Invest 的 ARKB 報告淨流出 5,600 萬美元。

Data from SoSoValue also shows that Bitwise’s BTC ETF (BITB) saw a $12 million exit, and both Fidelity and VanEck noted smaller outflows in the single digits. Meanwhile, BlackRock’s IBIT did not report any net flows that day.

SoSoValue 的數據還顯示，Bitwise 的 BTC ETF (BITB) 出現了 1,200 萬美元的退出，Fidelity 和 VanEck 都注意到較小的個位數流出。同時，貝萊德的 IBIT 當天沒有報告任何淨流量。

So far, the streak of continuous net inflows into the 11 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs concluded on Monday after 19 days, resulting in outflows of nearly $65 million. From their inception in January, these ETFs have cumulatively amassed net inflows totaling $15.42 billion.

至此，美國11隻現貨比特幣ETF的連續淨流入在19天後於週一結束，導致資金流出近6,500萬美元。自 1 月推出以來，這些 ETF 已累計淨流入總額達 154.2 億美元。

The featured image was generated using DALL-E, and the chart is from TradingView.

特色圖片是使用 DALL-E 產生的，圖表來自 TradingView。