套利主导比特币 ETF 格局

最近的分析表明，流入比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的很大一部分资金是由套利策略驱动的

Recent analyses suggest that a significant portion of the capital flow into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is driven by arbitrage strategies rather than direct investment from retail traders.

最近的分析表明，流入比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的很大一部分资金是由套利策略驱动的，而不是来自散户交易者的直接投资。

Particularly, Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision, has highlighted this trend based on data concerning these funds’ ownership and trading patterns.

特别是，Real Vision 首席执行官 Raoul Pal 根据这些基金的所有权和交易模式的数据强调了这一趋势。

Institutional Involvement And Market Movements

机构参与和市场走势

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal highlighted the predominance of arbitrage activities in the current Bitcoin spot ETF environment. His observations are backed by analyses indicating that around two-thirds of the net inflows can be attributed to arbitrage trading, particularly among the top institutional holders of these funds.

Real Vision 首席执行官 Raoul Pal 强调了当前比特币现货 ETF 环境中套利活动的主导地位。他的观察得到了分析的支持，分析表明约三分之二的净流入可归因于套利交易，尤其是这些基金的顶级机构持有者。

Upon examining the behaviors of the largest holders of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States, it’s clear that hedge funds and large institutional investors play a pivotal role.

通过研究美国比特币现货 ETF 最大持有者的行为，可以明显看出对冲基金和大型机构投资者发挥着关键作用。

Data shared by Tom Dauvley, a managing partner at MV Capital, shows that the top 80 holders, primarily hedge funds, manage assets amounting to approximately $10.26 billion of the total $15.42 billion in net inflows, representing a significant concentration of market power.

MV Capital管理合伙人Tom Dauvley分享的数据显示，前80名持有人（主要是对冲基金）管理的资产在154.2亿美元净流入总额中约为102.6亿美元，代表着市场力量的高度集中。

Millennium Management is the largest single holder, with investments spread across multiple ETF issuers, including prominent names like Bitwise, Grayscale, Fidelity, BlackRock, ARK, and 21Shares.

Millennium Management 是最大的单一持有人，其投资分布在多个 ETF 发行人中，包括 Bitwise、Grayscale、Fidelity、BlackRock、ARK 和 21Shares 等知名公司。

According to Pal, the nature of these inflows points predominantly towards arbitrage. Arbitrage in ETFs involves capitalizing on the price discrepancies between the ETF’s net asset value and the underlying Bitcoin price.

帕尔表示，这些资金流入的性质主要指向套利。 ETF 套利涉及利用 ETF 资产净值与基础比特币价格之间的价格差异。

Despite these observations, there is debate about how arbitrage influences overall ETF flows. Some market participants, like Joseph B., a crypto trader, argue that arbitrage might constitute less than 15% of total flows when considering the broader spectrum of US Bitcoin ETFs, which collectively manage over $42 billion in assets.

尽管有这些观察结果，但关于套利如何影响整体 ETF 流量仍存在争议。加密货币交易员 Joseph B. 等一些市场参与者认为，考虑到更广泛的美国比特币 ETF（这些基金总共管理着超过 420 亿美元的资产），套利可能只占总流量的不到 15%。

Hmmmmm don’t necessarily agree. Excl GBTC, there is 605,000 BTC ($42 Billion)in ETFs

嗯嗯，不一定同意。不包括 GBTC，ETF 中有 605,000 BTC（420 亿美元）

Short interest on the CME (The only place institutions would be doing their basis trade?) has about 91,000 in BTC ($6 Billion) shorts.

CME 的空头利息（机构进行基差交易的唯一场所？）大约有 91,000 个 BTC（60 亿美元）空头头寸。

The recent inflows could certainly be attributed to the…

最近的资金流入肯定可以归因于……

— Joseph B (@Packin_Sats) June 11, 2024

— Joseph B (@Packin_Sats) 2024 年 6 月 11 日

Bitcoin ETF Landscape Shows Arbitrage Dominance

比特币 ETF 格局显示套利主导地位

Currently, BTC is priced at $69,523, having increased by 3.5% in the last 24 hours after a recent CPI report indicating a slowing down in inflation in the US. Notably, this performance from BTC marks a recovery from a week-long decline in value.

目前，BTC 价格为 69,523 美元，在最近的 CPI 报告表明美国通胀放缓后，过去 24 小时内上涨了 3.5%。值得注意的是，比特币的这一表现标志着其价值从为期一周的下跌中恢复过来。

Before this price move, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw significant net outflows, with a total of $200 million withdrawn on Tuesday, concluding a period of net outflows earlier this week that halted a streak of net inflows.

在此次价格变动之前，美国现货比特币 ETF 出现大幅净流出，周二共撤资 2 亿美元，结束了本周早些时候的净流出期，并终止了连续净流入。

Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) experienced the highest withdrawals of roughly $121 million, while Ark Invest’s ARKB reported $56 million in net outflows.

Grayscale 的比特币信托 (GBTC) 的提款额最高，约为 1.21 亿美元，而 Ark Invest 的 ARKB 报告净流出 5600 万美元。

Data from SoSoValue also shows that Bitwise’s BTC ETF (BITB) saw a $12 million exit, and both Fidelity and VanEck noted smaller outflows in the single digits. Meanwhile, BlackRock’s IBIT did not report any net flows that day.

SoSoValue 的数据还显示，Bitwise 的 BTC ETF (BITB) 退出金额为 1200 万美元，Fidelity 和 VanEck 都指出，资金流出规模较小，仅为个位数。与此同时，贝莱德的 IBIT 当天没有报告任何净流量。

So far, the streak of continuous net inflows into the 11 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs concluded on Monday after 19 days, resulting in outflows of nearly $65 million. From their inception in January, these ETFs have cumulatively amassed net inflows totaling $15.42 billion.

至此，美国11只现货比特币ETF的持续净流入在19天后于周一结束，导致资金流出近6500万美元。自 1 月份推出以来，这些 ETF 已累计净流入总额达 154.2 亿美元。

The featured image was generated using DALL-E, and the chart is from TradingView.

特色图片是使用 DALL-E 生成的，图表来自 TradingView。