加密貨幣市場的明顯平靜可能會破碎。

受到威脅：本週五超過80億美元的比特幣和以太坊期權到期，這是一年中最大的銷量之一。

A calm crypto market could be quickly disturbed. On Friday, over 8 billion dollars in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired, one of the largest volumes of the year.

平靜的加密市場可能會很快受到干擾。週五，超過80億美元的比特幣和以太坊期權到期，這是一年中最大的銷量之一。

Each expiry sparks volatility. However, this time, the gaps between current prices and pain points could cause unexpected twists. In a climate of macroeconomic hesitation, this massive expiration could precipitate a new underlying movement.

每個到期都會引起波動。但是，這次，當前價格和痛點之間的差距可能會引起意外的扭曲。在宏觀經濟猶豫的氣氛中，這種巨大的到期可能會促成新的基礎運動。

A Colossal Expiry Under Surveillance

監視下的巨大到期

This Friday saw the expiration of 77,642 Bitcoin options contracts, representing a notional value of 7.24 billion dollars. On the Ethereum side, 458,926 options, or 808.3 million dollars, expired.

本週五，有77,642個比特幣期權合約到期，概念價值為72.4億美元。在以太坊方面，有458,926個期權或80830萬美元到期。

These figures establish one of the largest expiration volumes of the year. The element to watch is the positioning of current prices relative to the maximum pain points (max pain price). These indicators help estimate the zone where losses for options sellers are highest.

這些數字確定了一年中最大的到期量之一。要注意的要素是相對於最大疼痛點（最大疼痛價格）的當前價格定位。這些指標有助於估計銷售商損失最高的區域。

The situation is mixed. Indeed, Bitcoin is currently trading above its pain point, suggesting that many contracts could be exercised profitably. This situation would thus increase pressure on the market.

情況好壞參半。實際上，比特幣目前正在超過其痛點的交易，這表明許多合同可以盈利。因此，這種情況將增加市場壓力。

Conversely, Ethereum is trading below its critical threshold, which reduces the influence of its options on immediate movements.

相反，以太坊的交易低於其關鍵閾值，這降低了其選擇對即時運動的影響。

This asymmetry between the two assets could introduce performance gaps in the coming days and influence traders’ behavior, especially those engaged in inter-market strategies.

這兩個資產之間的這種不對稱性可能會在未來幾天引入績效差距，並影響交易者的行為，尤其是從事市場間策略的行為。

Traders’ Bullish Bets and Their Time Horizon

商人的看漲賭注和他們的時間範圍

Beyond the immediate impact of this expiry on prices, longer-term open positions provide valuable insight into investors’ expectations. A clear trend emerges: many traders continue to sell cash-covered options, a typical strategy of a bullish crypto market, while targeting high price levels on more distant expirations.

除了這種到期對價格的直接影響之外，長期的開放頭寸還提供了對投資者期望的寶貴見解。出現了一個明顯的趨勢：許多交易者繼續出售現金覆蓋的期權，這是看漲加密市場的典型策略，同時以更遙遠的到期為目標。

Call options with a strike at 110,000 dollars for BTC are thus actively traded for an expiration scheduled for mid-2025. This illustrates lasting confidence in market progress, despite a more uncertain short-term situation.

因此，BTC以110,000美元的罷工期權進行了積極交易，以預定於2025年中期的到期。儘管短期局勢不確定，但這說明了對市場進步的持久信心。

Such positioning fits into a dynamic where participants seem to bet on a post-expiry volatility lull. Thus, this massive volume could absorb some of the speculative pressure, at least temporarily.

這種定位適合一個動態，參與者似乎押注了興奮後的波動率。因此，這種龐大的體積至少可以暫時吸收一些投機壓力。

Open interest on upcoming option series, combined with positions taken at increasingly higher levels, confirms an optimistic view, at least on the derivatives markets. This interpretation should of course be tempered by the reaction of spot markets in the hours and days following this technical expiry.

至少在衍生品市場上，對即將到來的期權系列的開放興趣，再加上越來越高的職位。當然，這種解釋應在此技術到期後的幾個小時和幾天內對現貨市場的反應進行緩解。

In the short term, price behavior around pain points could cause frictions, even erratic movements. However, in the medium term, it is the long positions on options and hedging strategies put in place that will set the tempo. The coexistence of structural optimism and situational volatility creates a two-speed situation where crypto traders must operate between tactical caution and strategic conviction.

在短期內，疼痛點周圍的價格行為可能導致摩擦，甚至不穩定的動作。但是，在中期，制定了節奏的是選擇和對沖策略的長位置。結構樂觀和情境波動的共存創造了兩速情況，加密貨幣交易者必須在戰術謹慎和戰略信念之間運作。