加密货币市场的明显平静可能会破碎。

受到威胁：本周五超过80亿美元的比特币和以太坊期权到期，这是一年中最大的销量之一。

A calm crypto market could be quickly disturbed. On Friday, over 8 billion dollars in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired, one of the largest volumes of the year.

平静的加密市场可能会很快受到干扰。周五，超过80亿美元的比特币和以太坊期权到期，这是一年中最大的销量之一。

Each expiry sparks volatility. However, this time, the gaps between current prices and pain points could cause unexpected twists. In a climate of macroeconomic hesitation, this massive expiration could precipitate a new underlying movement.

每个到期都会引起波动。但是，这次，当前价格和痛点之间的差距可能会引起意外的扭曲。在宏观经济犹豫的气氛中，这种巨大的到期可能会促成新的基础运动。

A Colossal Expiry Under Surveillance

监视下的巨大到期

This Friday saw the expiration of 77,642 Bitcoin options contracts, representing a notional value of 7.24 billion dollars. On the Ethereum side, 458,926 options, or 808.3 million dollars, expired.

本周五，有77,642个比特币期权合约到期，概念价值为72.4亿美元。在以太坊方面，有458,926个期权或80830万美元到期。

These figures establish one of the largest expiration volumes of the year. The element to watch is the positioning of current prices relative to the maximum pain points (max pain price). These indicators help estimate the zone where losses for options sellers are highest.

这些数字确定了一年中最大的到期量之一。要注意的要素是相对于最大疼痛点（最大疼痛价格）的当前价格定位。这些指标有助于估计销售商损失最高的区域。

The situation is mixed. Indeed, Bitcoin is currently trading above its pain point, suggesting that many contracts could be exercised profitably. This situation would thus increase pressure on the market.

情况好坏参半。实际上，比特币目前正在超过其痛点的交易，这表明许多合同可以盈利。因此，这种情况将增加市场压力。

Conversely, Ethereum is trading below its critical threshold, which reduces the influence of its options on immediate movements.

相反，以太坊的交易低于其关键阈值，这降低了其选择对即时运动的影响。

This asymmetry between the two assets could introduce performance gaps in the coming days and influence traders’ behavior, especially those engaged in inter-market strategies.

这两个资产之间的这种不对称性可能会在未来几天引入绩效差距，并影响交易者的行为，尤其是从事市场间策略的行为。

Traders’ Bullish Bets and Their Time Horizon

商人的看涨赌注和他们的时间范围

Beyond the immediate impact of this expiry on prices, longer-term open positions provide valuable insight into investors’ expectations. A clear trend emerges: many traders continue to sell cash-covered options, a typical strategy of a bullish crypto market, while targeting high price levels on more distant expirations.

除了这种到期对价格的直接影响之外，长期的开放头寸还提供了对投资者期望的宝贵见解。出现了一个明显的趋势：许多交易者继续出售现金覆盖的期权，这是看涨加密市场的典型策略，同时以更遥远的到期为目标。

Call options with a strike at 110,000 dollars for BTC are thus actively traded for an expiration scheduled for mid-2025. This illustrates lasting confidence in market progress, despite a more uncertain short-term situation.

因此，BTC以110,000美元的罢工期权进行了积极交易，以预定于2025年中期的到期。尽管短期局势不确定，但这说明了对市场进步的持久信心。

Such positioning fits into a dynamic where participants seem to bet on a post-expiry volatility lull. Thus, this massive volume could absorb some of the speculative pressure, at least temporarily.

这种定位适合一个动态，参与者似乎押注了兴奋后的波动率。因此，这种庞大的体积至少可以暂时吸收一些投机压力。

Open interest on upcoming option series, combined with positions taken at increasingly higher levels, confirms an optimistic view, at least on the derivatives markets. This interpretation should of course be tempered by the reaction of spot markets in the hours and days following this technical expiry.

至少在衍生品市场上，对即将到来的期权系列的开放兴趣，再加上越来越高的职位。当然，这种解释应在此技术到期后的几个小时和几天内对现货市场的反应进行缓解。

In the short term, price behavior around pain points could cause frictions, even erratic movements. However, in the medium term, it is the long positions on options and hedging strategies put in place that will set the tempo. The coexistence of structural optimism and situational volatility creates a two-speed situation where crypto traders must operate between tactical caution and strategic conviction.

在短期内，疼痛点周围的价格行为可能导致摩擦，甚至不稳定的动作。但是，在中期，制定了节奏的是选择和对冲策略的长位置。结构乐观和情境波动的共存创造了两速情况，加密货币交易者必须在战术谨慎和战略信念之间运作。