Spot ETH ETFs: Approval Unlikely, Limited Returns Expected

Despite the potential SEC approval of spot ETH ETFs, investors should consider total return ETH investment products to maximize gains. Total return products offer both staking rewards and underlying asset growth, unlike ETFs which currently lack a staking component. By investing in private funds that stake ETH, accredited investors can access total return exposure without the limitations and tracking errors associated with unstaked assets.

Spot ETH ETFs: Limited Returns and Unlikely Approval

Amidst the recent regulatory approval and successful launch of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the possibility of similar approval for spot ether (ETH) ETFs has garnered considerable attention. However, experts believe that such approval is improbable under the current regulatory landscape. Furthermore, even if approved, ETH ETFs would initially lack a crucial component: staking rewards.

Normalization of Crypto Investing vs. Return Limitations

While crypto ETFs contribute to the normalization of cryptocurrency investing for traditional finance allocators, their return characteristics fall short compared to total return options. As of this writing, staking ETH yields an annual reward of over 3% according to CESR, the benchmark composite Ether staking rate. An investor in an ETH ETF would thus be at a disadvantage compared to one who invests in a staking product, which has historically generated rewards as high as 8% per annum.

Liquidity Mismatch and Structural Underperformance

Staking ETH inherently reduces liquidity due to the entry and exit queues for validators. In 2023, the entry queue surged to 45 days, highlighting the liquidity challenges posed by staking. Given the immense liquidity demands of ETFs, issuers may struggle to deliver both liquidity and the full return on ETH, including staking rewards.

Moreover, passively holding unstaked ETH resembles holding fiat currency in a demand deposit account with zero interest for extended periods. This approach leads to structural underperformance and persistent negative tracking error when compared to a total return benchmark.

Private Fund Solution for Accredited Investors

For accredited investors, private funds offer an effective solution to gain total return ETH exposure. Structured as private funds, these entities avoid the regulatory challenges associated with staking ETH. Fund managers can also tailor the fund's liquidity to match the staking and unstaking needs of investors. With proper operational setup, private funds provide benefits such as auditing, benchmarking, and qualified custody.

Disclaimer

Methodic Capital Management has partnered with CoinDesk Indices, an affiliate of CoinDesk, on a private fund that utilizes the CoinDesk Ether Total Return Index. This index combines the CoinDesk Ether Price Index (ETX) and the Composite Ether Staking Rate (CESR), calculated by CoinDesk Indices and administered by CoinFund.

About the Authors

Jason Hall is the CEO of Methodic Capital Management.

John McNiff is the CEO of Theia and COO of Methodic Capital.

Glossary

• Spot ETH ETFs: Exchange-traded funds that directly track the spot price of ether without leverage or derivatives.
• Staking: A process in which individuals contribute their ETH to support the Ethereum network's security and earn rewards.
• Total Return: A calculation that includes both the price appreciation of an asset and any income generated, such as staking rewards.
• Accredited Investor: An individual or entity that meets certain financial qualifications, allowing them to invest in private funds.