Investor optimism for an XRP ETF has climbed sharply

Based on Polymarket's data, the odds of a green light sit at 83%. That figure comes even as the US Securities and Exchange Commission keeps pushing decisions back.

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Investor optimism for a spot XRP ETF has climbed sharply. Based on Polymarket’s data, the odds of a green light sit at 83%. That figure comes even as the US Securities and Exchange Commission keeps pushing decisions back. Some industry watchers say the regulator is simply using its full review window.

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Analyst Predictions And Timeline

According to Bloomberg’s James Seyffart, the SEC often takes the full 240 days to process 19b-4 filings. He pointed out that the agency asked for an extra 45 days on May 20 to rule on Bitwise’s Ether staking change, moving the deadline to May 22.

Based on his posts on X, almost all spot ETF bids now face final due dates in October. That makes any early summer approvals highly unlikely.

Spot Versus Futures Products

On May 19, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rolled out an XRP futures contract for the first time. A few days later, Volatility Shares listed the XRPI futures ETF on Nasdaq. Then Tectrium added a 2x Long Daily XRP ETF for those seeking more leverage.

These products allow traders to bet on XRP’s future price in a regulated setting. They are not the same as a spot ETF, but they signal growing interest among major investors.

Institutional Access Through ETFs

In a recent podcast, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse discussed why ETFs are essential for broader institutional participation in crypto. He explained that ETFs permit large-scale investors to gain exposure to cryptocurrencies without needing to personally engage with exchanges or manage private wallets.

He noted that the Bitcoin ETF quickly hit $1 billion in assets, becoming one of the fastest-growing ETFs in history, and later reached a record-high $10 billion. This success story, he argued, sets the stage for similar products tied to XRP.

According to SEC filings and industry conversations, it’s common for the commission to use its full 4-6 month window to review 19b-4 filings for new exchange-traded products.

Investors should be aware that odds in prediction markets can fluctuate significantly. An 83% chance today could change if the SEC has more questions or requests another comment period.

With several key ETF decisions still pending, investors will be following the calendar closely as we approach the October maturity of 19b-4 filings.

Excitement over an XRP spot ETF has reached new highs, with investor optimism pushing the odds of approval to 83%, according to Polymarket.

Despite this anticipation, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has repeatedly delayed its decision on the product, currently juggling requests for both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

Some industry watchers say the regulator is simply using its full review window for the 19b-4 filings.

According to Bloomberg's James Seyffart, the SEC often takes the 240-day window to process these filings, which are used for new exchange-traded products.

He explained that the agency asked for an extra 45 days on May 20 to rule on Bitwise’s Ether staking change, moving the deadline to May 22.

Based on his posts on X, almost all spot ETF bids now face final due dates in October, making any early summer approvals highly unlikely.

Earlier this month, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launched an XRP futures contract for the first time. A few days later, Volatility Shares listed the XRPI futures ETF on Nasdaq, and then Tectrium added a 2x Long Daily XRP ETF for those seeking more leverage.

These products allow traders to bet on XRP’s future price in a regulated setting. While they are not the same as a spot ETF, they signal growing interest among major investors in products linked to the token.

In a recent podcast, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse discussed why ETFs are essential for broader institutional participation in crypto.

He explained that ETFs permit large-scale investors to gain exposure to cryptocurrencies without needing to personally engage with exchanges or manage private wallets.

He noted that the Bitcoin ETF quickly hit $1 billion in assets, becoming one of the fastest-growing ETFs in history, and later reached a record-high $10 billion. This success story, he argued, sets the stage for similar products tied to XRP.

According to SEC filings and industry chatter, it’s common for the commission to use its full 4-6 month window to review 19b-4 filings.

However, analysts warn that odds in prediction markets can shift wildly. An 83% chance today