New Covid XEC variant predicted to become dominant strain by winter 2024

Prof Francois Balloux, director of the Genetics Institute at University College London, told BBC News that XEC has a "slight transmission advantage" over other

A new Covid variant is set to become the dominant strain in the UK by winter 2024, experts have predicted.

The XEC strain was first identified in Germany in June but has since been found in other countries including the UK and USA.

Prof Francois Balloux, director of the Genetics Institute at University College London, told BBC News that XEC has a "slight transmission advantage" over other recent Covid variants, but vaccines should still provide good protection.

"The vaccines are regularly updated, and a version specifically targeting XEC, which evolved from earlier Omicron subvariants, has not yet been released.

"However, the UK Health Security Agency advises that it's worth getting one if you're eligible.

“As we move into autumn, protection from any earlier Covid-19 vaccination you may have had will be starting to wane.

"For those who are more likely to become seriously ill from Covid-19, the NHS offers a free vaccine in the autumn, previously known as the 'Autumn Booster'.

"Current vaccines provide good protection against severe disease and hospitalisation.

“UKHSA surveillance data relating to last autumn's programme shows that those who received a vaccine were around 45% less likely to be admitted to hospital with Covid-19 from 2 weeks following vaccination, compared to those who remained unvaccinated. Protection lasts for around 4 months.

"Vaccination continues to help protect against severe illness, hospitalisations and deaths arising from Covid-19.

“Between November, December and January over 38,000 people were admitted to hospital with the virus."

There are several key groups who do still qualify for the autumn Covid-19 vaccination on the NHS.

The eligibility is the same across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

The vaccine should usually be offered no earlier than around six months after the last vaccine dose.

If you are eligible, you can get protection from an autumn Covid-19 vaccination even if you have not taken up a Covid-19 vaccine offer in the past.

Those eligible for the autumn Covid-19 vaccination include:

People aged 50 and over

Pregnant women

Those in a care home

Those who are immunosuppressed

Those who are housebound

Those who have learning disabilities

Those who are autistic

Those who are living with someone who has a weakened immune system

Those who are frontline health and social care workers

Those who are over 16 and have a long-term health condition

Those who are over 16 and are a carer, either paid or unpaid

Those who are over 16 and live with someone who is more likely to get seriously ill from Covid-19

Those who are over 16 and are pregnant

Those who are over 16 and have a weakened immune system

Those who are over 16 and are in a care home

Those who are over 16 and are frontline health and social care workers

Those who are over 16 and have learning disabilities

Those who are over 16 and are autistic

Those who are over 16 and are living with someone who has a weakened immune system

Those who are over 16 and are pregnant

Those who are over 16 and have a long-term health condition

Those who are over 16 and are a carer, either paid or unpaid

Those who are over 16 and live with someone who is more likely to get seriously ill from Covid-19

Those who are over 16 and are in a care home

Those who are over 16 and are frontline health and social care workers

Those who are over 16 and have learning disabilities

Those who are over 16 and are autistic

Those who are over 16 and are living with someone who has a weakened immune system

Those who are over 16 and are pregnant

Those who are over 16 and have a long-term health condition

Those who are over 16 and are a carer, either paid or unpaid

Those who are over 16 and live with someone who is more likely to get seriously ill from Covid-19

Those who are over 16 and are in a care home

Those who are over 16 and are frontline health and social care workers

Those who are over 16 and have learning disabilities

Those who are over 16 and are autistic

Those who are over 16 and are living with someone who has a weakened immune system