Altcoin market cap (excluding ETH) gained $126B in Q2, fueling speculation of an altseason

The total altcoin market cap (excluding ETH) gained $126 billion in Q2, fueling speculation of an altseason.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization excluding Ether (ETH) has increased by $126 billion in Q2, sparking enthusiasm from analysts anticipating an altseason.

Analyst Javon Marks, known for his analysis of the TOTAL3 index (total market cap of altcoins excluding Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum) against the US money supply, recently pointed out a breakout on the 4-hour chart.

According to the analyst, this breakout, which occurred after a retest of the breakout level, is a critical indicator.

Likewise, anonymous crypto trader Moustache shared an analysis on X, highlighting a weekly inverse head-and-shoulders pattern in the TOTAL3 chart. Comparing 2021 and 2025, the chart mirrors 2021’s altcoin season when top alts surged 174% against Bitcoin’s 20% during the final leg. The pattern, a bullish reversal indicator, suggests a rally, with the analyst forecasting "much higher levels" for altcoins.

“Altseason” sparks mixed sentiment among analysts

While some analysts are on the altcoin rally bandwagon, others are approaching with caution. Technical analyst Crypto Scient explained that the recent rise in altcoin market cap is yet to reflect a higher time frame (HTF) bullish trend shift. The analyst noted that the TOTAL2 trend remained bearish after hitting resistance at the $1.25 trillion level, and said,

Similarly, Crypto commentator DonaXBT argued that a significant breakdown in Bitcoin’s dominance trendline is essential for altcoins to experience a substantial move. The accompanying chart reveals that Bitcoin dominance is above 60%, with the weekly uptrend still intact.

According to the analyst, a decline below the 60% level, followed by a retest of the support zone between 56% and 58%, could serve as the initial catalyst for a full-fledged altcoin season to emerge.

Related: Warren Buffett exits crypto-friendly Nubank (NYSE:NU) holdings, netting $250M profit

Altcoin spot trading volume is still under $10 billion

Data from CryptoQuant indicates that altcoin spot trading volumes remain low, averaging $3-$5 billion/per day compared to $8-$12 billion/per day in Q4 2024, suggesting that altcoins are in the early stages of a rally. Despite these lower volumes, market observers see this as a precursor to significant growth, suggesting that altcoins have yet to reach their peak momentum.

The Altcoin Season Index, currently at 24, further supports this outlook by confirming that the market is in Bitcoin season, as noted by Blockchaincenter.net. Historically, an index below 25 indicates Bitcoin dominance, which can be a positive setup for altcoins. When the index climbs above 30-40, altcoins experience significant pumps as capital shifts from Bitcoin.

With trading volumes showing signs of recovery and the Altcoin Season Index suggesting a shift, investor optimism for an altcoin rally is increasing.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.