Louisville's weather forecast is looking damp this week. Will it rain during the Kentucky Derby?

Showers and thunderstorms are possible starting Tuesday, but will it rain Saturday during the Kentucky Derby? Here's what we know.

Louisville's weather forecast is looking damp this week, with showers and thunderstorms possible starting Tuesday. But will it rain Saturday during the Kentucky Derby?

Historically speaking, it's a near coin-flip.

Out of the past 150 Kentucky Derbies, 72 have experienced rain at some point during the day — that's 48%, according to historical records maintained by the National Weather Service. The wettest day on record happened May 5, 2018, when 3.15 inches of precipitation fell in the city.

Here's what we know about rain chances at this year's race.

Kentucky Derby 2023 weather forecast

As of Monday, meteorologists with the National Weather Service in Louisville predict it will be a warm and sunny day for the Kentucky Derby.

"The Derby this weekend looks really good," meteorologist Samantha Wilson told the Courier Journal Monday morning. "We're looking to have high pressure over the region, which will help give us sunny skies, dry weather and pretty mild temperatures."

The track will be wet after the rainfall we are expected to get throughout the week, but it should be dry before the Derby on Saturday, Wilson said.

The extended weather forecast for Louisville, Kentucky, is as follows:

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 86.

Monday night: Mostly clear, with a low around 69.

Tuesday: A 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 84.

Tuesday night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 8 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64.

Wednesday: A 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80.

Wednesday night: A 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65.

Thursday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday night: Showers likely and a possible thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy with a low around 60. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 73. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday night: A slight chance of thunderstorms before 8 p.m. Mostly clear, with a low around 49. Chance of precipitation is 10%.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high of 69 and a low around 47.