Visa报告：超过90%的稳定币交易可能是假的

Visa Inc. 和 Allium Labs 的稳定币交易量数据表明，超过 90% 的交易量可能并非来自真实用户，这让人对其作为支付方式的广泛采用产生怀疑。由于重复计算，准确跟踪稳定币交易具有挑战性，这凸显了改进数据监控方法的必要性。尽管 PayPal 和 Stripe 等金融科技巨头对此很感兴趣，但稳定币在采用方面仍然面临障碍，包括缺乏用户友好性，需要进一步开发和增强以提高其可访问性。

Stablecoins: Unmasking the Truth Behind Transaction Volumes and the Road to Widespread Adoption

稳定币：揭示交易量背后的真相和广泛采用之路

In the realm of digital currencies, stablecoins have emerged as a promising solution for mitigating the volatility associated with traditional cryptocurrencies. Pegged to underlying assets such as fiat currencies or precious metals, stablecoins aim to provide a stable and reliable alternative for payments and value transfer. However, a recent metric developed by Visa Inc. and Allium Labs has shed light on a disconcerting truth: a vast majority of stablecoin transaction volumes may not be driven by genuine user activity. This revelation challenges the widespread belief that stablecoins are on the cusp of widespread adoption as a payment method.

在数字货币领域，稳定币已成为减轻传统加密货币相关波动性的有前途的解决方案。稳定币与法定货币或贵金属等基础资产挂钩，旨在为支付和价值转移提供稳定可靠的替代方案。然而，Visa Inc. 和 Allium Labs 最近开发的一项指标揭示了一个令人不安的事实：绝大多数稳定币交易量可能不是由真正的用户活动驱动的。这一发现挑战了人们普遍认为稳定币即将被广泛采用作为一种支付方式的观点。

Unveiling the True Nature of Stablecoin Transactions

揭开稳定币交易的真实本质

The Visa-Allium Labs metric analyzed approximately $2.2 trillion worth of stablecoin transactions in April 2023 and found that only a paltry $149 billion, or roughly 6.8%, could be attributed to "organic payments activity." This implies that the remaining 93.2% of transactions may have been generated by bots, large-scale traders, or other non-genuine sources.

Visa-Allium Labs 指标分析了 2023 年 4 月价值约 2.2 万亿美元的稳定币交易，发现只有区区 1,490 亿美元（约 6.8%）可归因于“有机支付活动”。这意味着其余 93.2% 的交易可能是由机器人、大型交易者或其他非真实来源生成的。

This finding has sent shockwaves through the industry, raising questions about the authenticity of stablecoin transaction volumes and their true potential as a payment mechanism. While proponents of stablecoins have touted their potential for disrupting the payments landscape with fast, low-cost transactions, the data suggests that the widespread adoption of stablecoins as a means of payment is still a distant reality.

这一发现震惊了整个行业，引发了人们对稳定币交易量的真实性及其作为支付机制的真正潜力的质疑。尽管稳定币的支持者吹捧其通过快速、低成本交易颠覆支付格局的潜力，但数据表明，广泛采用稳定币作为支付手段仍然是一个遥远的现实。

Challenges in Tracking Stablecoin Transactions

跟踪稳定币交易的挑战

Accurately tracking the real value and volume of stablecoin transactions poses a unique set of challenges. Unlike traditional financial transactions, which are often recorded on centralized platforms, stablecoin transactions can occur across multiple platforms and exchanges, leading to potential double-counting and inflated transaction volumes. For instance, if $100 of USDC (Circle Internet Financial Ltd.'s stablecoin) is converted to PYUSD (PayPal's stablecoin) on a decentralized exchange like Uniswap, the on-chain recording could show a total stablecoin volume of $200. This highlights the need for improved methods of tracking stablecoin transactions accurately to gain a more realistic understanding of their true usage.

准确跟踪稳定币交易的实际价值和交易量提出了一系列独特的挑战。与通常记录在中心化平台上的传统金融交易不同，稳定币交易可以跨多个平台和交易所进行，从而导致潜在的重复计算和交易量膨胀。例如，如果在 Uniswap 等去中心化交易所将 100 美元的 USDC（Circle Internet Financial Ltd. 的稳定币）转换为 PYUSD（PayPal 的稳定币），则链上记录可能会显示稳定币的总交易量为 200 美元。这凸显了需要改进准确跟踪稳定币交易的方法，以便更现实地了解其真实用途。

Implications for the Payments Industry

对支付行业的影响

The revelation of the low percentage of genuine user transactions in stablecoins has significant implications for the payments industry. Visa, as a major player in the payments landscape, could face potential losses if stablecoins were to gain widespread acceptance. Analysts at Bernstein predict that the total value of all stablecoins in circulation could reach $2.8 trillion by 2028, an almost 18-fold increase from the current combined circulation. However, if the majority of these transactions are not driven by genuine users, the actual impact on the payments industry may be considerably lower.

稳定币真实用户交易比例较低的事实对支付行业具有重大影响。如果稳定币获得广泛接受，Visa 作为支付领域的主要参与者，可能会面临潜在的损失。 Bernstein 分析师预测，到 2028 年，所有流通中的稳定币总价值可能达到 2.8 万亿美元，比目前的总流通量增长近 18 倍。然而，如果这些交易大部分不是由真实用户驱动的，那么对支付行业的实际影响可能会小得多。

Prominent Players Embrace Stablecoins, but User-Friendliness Remains a Hurdle

知名玩家拥抱稳定币，但用户友好性仍然是一个障碍

Despite the challenges, prominent payment providers such as PayPal and Stripe have made notable strides in adopting stablecoins within their platforms. PayPal launched its own stablecoin, PYUSD, to facilitate instant and lower-cost transfers, while Stripe now allows merchants on its platform to accept stablecoins for online transactions. However, despite these developments, the demand for stablecoin-based payment solutions remains tepid, with many users perceiving the technology as lacking in user-friendliness.

尽管面临挑战，PayPal 和 Stripe 等知名支付提供商在其平台内采用稳定币方面取得了显着进展。 PayPal 推出了自己的稳定币 PYUSD，以促进即时且低成本的转账，而 Stripe 现在允许其平台上的商家接受稳定币进行在线交易。然而，尽管取得了这些进展，对基于稳定币的支付解决方案的需求仍然不温不火，许多用户认为该技术缺乏用户友好性。

The sluggish adoption of stablecoins in the market is exemplified by the fact that a significant percentage of business payments in the United States are still made using checks. This highlights the need for further improvement in user experience and the importance of ensuring that existing payment systems work effectively.

稳定币在市场上的采用缓慢的一个例子是，美国很大一部分企业付款仍然使用支票进行。这凸显了进一步改善用户体验的必要性以及确保现有支付系统有效运行的重要性。

The Future of Stablecoins and the Payments Landscape

稳定币的未来和支付格局

While stablecoins hold long-term potential as a more stable and reliable alternative to cryptocurrencies for payments and value transfer, the data presented by Visa's metric serves as a wake-up call, prompting the need for continued development and improvement. The path toward widespread adoption of stablecoins as a means of payment lies in addressing issues of user-friendliness and ensuring the reliability and efficiency of existing payment infrastructure.

虽然稳定币作为加密货币支付和价值转移的更稳定、更可靠的替代品具有长期潜力，但 Visa 指标提供的数据敲响了警钟，促使需要持续开发和改进。广泛采用稳定币作为支付手段的途径在于解决用户友好性问题并确保现有支付基础设施的可靠性和效率。

As the market evolves and technology advances, stablecoins may play a more significant role in reshaping the global payments landscape. However, it is crucial to approach their adoption with a measured perspective, focusing on enhancing existing payment rails and addressing user concerns.

随着市场的发展和技术的进步，稳定币可能在重塑全球支付格局方面发挥更重要的作用。然而，至关重要的是要以审慎的视角来对待它们的采用，重点是增强现有的支付轨道并解决用户的担忧。

Conclusion

结论

The recent metric co-developed by Visa Inc. and Allium Labs has revealed a sobering truth about the state of stablecoin transaction volumes, challenging the widespread belief that stablecoins are on the verge of revolutionizing the payments industry. Accurate tracking of stablecoin transactions, improving user-friendliness, and addressing the challenges associated with their integration into existing payment infrastructure are key factors that need to be addressed for stablecoins to reach their long-term potential. While stablecoins hold promise as a more stable and reliable alternative to cryptocurrencies for payments and value transfer, their journey to mainstream adoption requires further development and refinement before they can truly disrupt the payments landscape.

Visa Inc. 和 Allium Labs 最近共同开发的指标揭示了有关稳定币交易量状况的一个发人深省的事实，挑战了人们普遍认为稳定币即将彻底改变支付行业的观点。准确跟踪稳定币交易、提高用户友好性以及解决与现有支付基础设施集成相关的挑战是稳定币发挥其长期潜力需要解决的关键因素。虽然稳定币有望成为支付和价值转移方面加密货币更稳定、更可靠的替代品，但它们走向主流的过程需要进一步的发展和完善，才能真正颠覆支付格局。