比特币与股票市场的脱离

4月，许多加密市场观察家正在撰写有关比特币与股票的持续分离或差异的撰写，这意味着比特币价格的轨迹与股票和股票相比，比特币的轨迹迈出了不同的方向。

In April, many crypto market observers were writing about an ongoing decoupling or divergence of Bitcoin from equities, meaning that the trajectory of Bitcoin’s price took a different direction compared to stocks and equities. Bitcoin and Gold are up, while the American dollar and stocks are down. However, opinions among market experts on whether the Bitcoin and equities markets have truly diverged vary.

4月，许多加密市场观察家正在撰写有关比特币与股票的持续分离或差异的撰写，这意味着比特币价格的轨迹与股票和股票相比，比特币的轨迹迈出了不同的方向。比特币和黄金已经上升，而美元和股票下跌。但是，市场专家对比特币和股票市场是否真正分歧的看法有所不同。

Some enthusiastically proclaim that Bitcoin has decoupled from risk assets and joined Gold as a safe haven. The reason is not hard to see: lately, Bitcoin and Gold have been the only major assets with positive price movements. On April 21, 2025, the price of Gold crossed the $3,400 mark for the first time. This unprecedented rally is widely seen as a response to growing uncertainty among investors, stocks and altcoins went through a wave of liquidations and some of the strongest declines in years, prompting a shift toward Gold.

一些人热情地宣布，比特币已经与风险资产脱钩，并加入了黄金作为避风港。原因不难看到：最近，比特币和黄金是唯一具有正价变动的主要资产。 2025年4月21日，黄金的价格首次超过了3,400美元。这种前所未有的集会被广泛认为是对投资者，股票和山寨币之间不确定性日益确定的反应，多年来经历了清算浪潮，有些人最强的下降，促使人们向黄金迈出了转变。

For most of the 2020s, the gold price fluctuated between $1,800 and $2,000, only starting to climb in the fall of 2023. MacroTrends points to a correlation between the price of gold and global economic uncertainty. Another correlation is the alignment of gold prices with the level of U.S. national debt.

在2020年代的大部分时间里，黄金价格在$ 1,800到2,000美元之间波动，仅在2023年秋天才开始攀升。另一个关联是黄金价格与美国国债水平的一致。

Gold is traditionally seen as a safe haven. Bitcoin has a similar reputation among many investors. However, an influx of institutional investors buying Bitcoin led to a relative alignment of BTC’s price with stocks. Some viewed Bitcoin as an extension of the stock market, but with higher price amplitude. The chart below clearly shows that over the past three years, Bitcoin has mirrored Nasdaq movements closely, mimicking its ups and downs with sharper swings.

传统上，黄金被视为避风港。比特币在许多投资者中享有类似的声誉。但是，购买比特币的机构投资者的涌入导致BTC的价格与股票的相对一致。一些人将比特币视为股票市场的扩展，但价格幅度更高。下图清楚地表明，在过去的三年中，比特币紧密地反映了纳斯达克的动作，模仿了其跌宕起伏的动作。

Experts remain divided on this. For instance, in March 2025, BlackRock’s Robbie Mitchnick stated that Bitcoin is still yet to consistently move in line with Wall Street, although he anticipates it will happen as more TradFi investors start trading Bitcoin.

专家对此仍然有分歧。例如，在2025年3月，贝莱德（Blackrock）的罗比·米奇尼克（Robbie Mitchnick）表示，比特币仍未与华尔街保持一致，尽管他预计这会发生，随着越来越多的tradfi投资者开始交易比特币。

Did Bitcoin really decouple from stocks?

比特币真的从股票中解散了吗？

The second half of April saw Bitcoin and Gold rise, while major assets including stocks and the USD dropped. On April 22 alone, Bitcoin gained 7%, while risk assets ended the day in negative territory.

4月下半年，比特币和黄金上升，而包括股票和美元在内的主要资产下降了。仅在4月22日，比特币上涨了7％，而风险资产在负面的领土上结束了。

Many in the crypto community quickly reacted, declaring that Bitcoin was undergoing a decoupling from stocks. Bitcoin and Gold seemed to confirm their roles as safe havens, while other assets appeared increasingly risky and vulnerable amid political and economic turmoil.

加密货币社区中的许多人迅速做出了反应，宣布比特币正在与股票脱钩。比特币和黄金似乎证实了它们作为避风港的作用，而在政治和经济动荡的情况下，其他资产似乎越来越冒险和脆弱。

Some commenters attributed the Bitcoin rally to increased liquidity, encouraging investors to “ignore the noise.” They argue that Bitcoin can surge thanks to technical triggers even when news sentiment is mixed. Others pointed to macro headlines as a major driver of the demand for Bitcoin, including comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggesting a possible de-escalation between the U.S. and China. Meanwhile, headlines reported that India was considering sanctions against China, and China itself urged countries to reject collaboration with the U.S.

一些评论者将比特币集会归因于增加的流动性，鼓励投资者“忽略噪音”。他们认为，即使是新闻情绪，比特币也会激发技术触发因素。其他人则指出，宏观标题是对比特币需求的主要驱动力，其中包括美国财政部长斯科特·贝斯特（Scott Bessent）的评论，表明美国和中国之间可能会降低。同时，头条新闻报道说，印度正在考虑对中国的制裁，中国本身敦促各国拒绝与美国的合作

In this light, it appears that Bitcoin’s rally was at least partly news-driven. Such major economic shake-ups don’t happen often, suggesting that the current decoupling may be more extraordinary than permanent. Bitcoin could realign with the stock market once the trade tensions subside.

据此，看来比特币的集会至少部分是新闻驱动的。这种重大的经济改动不会经常发生，这表明当前的去耦可能比永久性更为非凡。一旦贸易紧张局势消退，比特币可能会与股票市场重新分配。

Why is decoupling important?

为什么解耦很重要？

We asked our market analyst and trader, Ekta Mourya, to enlighten our readers on this topic. Here’s what she replied to why decoupling is important and whether she sees the current decoupling as a temporary or a long-term phase:

我们要求我们的市场分析师和交易员Ekta Mourya启发我们的读者有关此主题的启发。这是她回答为什么解耦为何重要的原因，以及她是否将当前的脱钩视为临时或长期阶段：

“Bitcoin’s decoupling comes at a time when the largest cryptocurrency’s correlation with Gold rises. BTC’s outperformance against the Nasdaq during Trump’s tariff crisis marked a pivotal shift in Bitcoin’s price this cycle, bringing back the ‘digital Gold’ narrative.

“比特币的脱钩是在当时最大的加密货币与黄金的相关性。在特朗普的关税危机期间，BTC对纳斯达克的表现超出了纳斯达克的表现，这标志着比特币价格这个周期的关键转移，从而恢复了“数字黄金”的叙述。

Bitcoin’s 30-day Pearson correlation coefficient with Gold is up from -0.7 in March 2025 to 0.45 and rising as of April 2025. For traders, this signals an opportunity to enter long positions; it opens doors for Bitcoin’s re-test of the $109K all-time high and likely price discovery.

比特币与黄金的30天Pearson相关系数从2025年3月的-0.7增加到0.45，截至2025年4月。对于交易者来说，这标志着有机会进入长位位置；它为比特币的重新测试打开了109K $ 109,000的价格发现。

Bitcoin’s divergence from the stock market feels more like a temporary blip than a permanent shift. Market volatility, tariff tensions, and weak earnings are rattling U.S. equities, while Bitcoin is catching a bid as a safe haven for traders’ capital. However, structurally, BTC has always stood apart; it is a high-beta asset with a growing appeal for portfolio diversification. Both retail and institutional traders should watch Bitcoin for its evolving risk/reward profile and gains.”

比特币与股票市场的分歧更像是暂时的碎片，而不是永久性的转变。市场波动，关税紧张局势和疲软的收入使美国的股票震撼，而比特币则是竞标作为交易者资本的避风港。但是，从结构上讲，BTC总是脱颖而出。这是一种高β资产，对投资组合多元化的吸引力越来越大。零售和机构交易者都应观看比特币的不断发展的风险/回报概况和收益。”