是时候建立可持续的区块链生态系统了

多年来，该行业在没有建立真正的商业模式的情况下创造了价值，也失去了价值。是时候证明我们正在将区块链和基于其构建的应用程序转变为真正的业务了

For years, the blockchain industry has created and lost value without establishing real business models. However, as we enter the next phase — where blockchain is taken seriously by regulators and major businesses worldwide — it’s crucial to demonstrate that we’re on the path to turning blockchains and the applications built on them into real, sustainable businesses. By doing so, builders, users, and investors can finally reap rewards in a way that fosters a healthy and lasting blockchain ecosystem.

多年来，区块链行业在没有建立真正的商业模式的情况下创造了价值，也失去了价值。然而，当我们进入下一阶段时——区块链受到全球监管机构和主要企业的认真对待——至关重要的是要证明我们正在将区块链和基于区块链构建的应用程序转变为真正的、可持续的业务。通过这样做，建设者、用户和投资者最终可以以培育健康、持久的区块链生态系统的方式获得回报。

Even in the midst of what many consider a bull run — Bitcoin up 126% and Ethereum up 53% year-over-year — retail investors are feeling a sense of stagnation in the token markets. Earlier in the year, memecoins stole the spotlight, but as the dust settles, it's clear that only a small fraction of investors actually profited. Now, with even the most hyped infrastructure projects showing declining charts, the question looms: where should retail investors put their money next?

即使在许多人认为的牛市中——比特币同比上涨 126%，以太坊同比上涨 53%——散户投资者仍感受到代币市场的停滞感。今年早些时候，模因币抢尽风头，但随着尘埃落定，很明显只有一小部分投资者真正获利。现在，即使是最受炒作的基础设施项目也出现了下滑，问题浮出水面：散户投资者接下来应该把钱投向哪里？

The answer lies in identifying blockchain ecosystems that offer builders the tools to build, launch, and scale real companies with sustainable valuations — opportunities with genuine long-term potential, rather than just another meme-driven gamble. One that will start to resemble an actual stock market of sorts.

答案在于确定区块链生态系统，为构建者提供工具来构建、启动和扩展具有可持续估值的真实公司——具有真正长期潜力的机会，而不仅仅是另一场迷因驱动的赌博。它将开始类似于某种实际的股票市场。

In the current Web3 landscape, the consensus is clear: people are growing weary of yet another infrastructure company raising funds; instead, they're eagerly awaiting the next big consumer application. While defining what a "consumer application" entails could be an article in itself, it's crucial first to understand why venture capitalists (VCs) continue to pour money into infrastructure. The reality is that venture capital is driven by the pursuit of a 100x return — like finding the next Solana. Many large VCs hedge their bets by diversifying their portfolios, hoping that one big win will offset the losses from those that didn't pan out. However, even among VCs, there's a growing recognition that infrastructure investments won't yield returns if there's no surge in applications building on them.

在当前的 Web3 格局中，共识很明确：人们越来越厌倦又一家基础设施公司筹集资金；相反，他们热切地等待下一个大型消费者应用程序。虽然定义“消费者应用程序”本身可能需要一篇文章，但首先要理解为什么风险投资家 (VC) 继续向基础设施投入资金，这一点至关重要。现实情况是，风险投资是为了追求 100 倍的回报而驱动的——就像寻找下一个 Solana。许多大型风险投资公司通过投资组合多元化来对冲他们的赌注，希望一次大的胜利能够抵消那些失败的损失。然而，即使在风险投资公司中，人们也越来越认识到，如果基于基础设施的应用程序没有激增，基础设施投资就不会产生回报。

A common criticism of venture capitalists is that they aren't willing to invest in consumer applications, but that’s not entirely accurate. If we look back to 2021, after Axie Infinity’s success, nearly every VC funneled billions into the GameFi industry, hoping to replicate that success. While it’s likely that little of that money will ever be returned to investors as profits, it's clear those investments were aimed at consumer applications — or at least, attempts at them. Even if most of these GameFi projects were essentially DeFi applications disguised as games with Ponzi-style tokenomics, they were still consumer-facing efforts.

对风险投资家的一个常见批评是他们不愿意投资消费者应用程序，但这并不完全准确。如果我们回顾 2021 年，在 Axie Infinity 取得成功之后，几乎所有风投都向 GameFi 行业投入了数十亿美元，希望复制这一成功。虽然这些钱可能很少会作为利润返还给投资者，但很明显，这些投资是针对消费者应用的——或者至少是针对消费者应用的尝试。即使这些 GameFi 项目中的大多数本质上是伪装成庞氏式代币经济学游戏的 DeFi 应用程序，但它们仍然是面向消费者的努力。

VCs will invest in consumer applications once they spot a winner. For instance, we've seen 40 replicas of Polymarket (my estimate) since its recent success. The main takeaway here is that, despite the expectation that VCs should have contrarian views to generate returns for their investors, they often resort to being copycat investors, playing a financial version of "follow the leader.” Who those leaders are tends to coincide with who has the most money.

一旦发现赢家，风险投资公司就会投资消费者应用程序。例如，自从 Polymarket 最近取得成功以来，我们已经看到了 40 个复制品（我的估计）。这里的主要结论是，尽管人们期望风险投资家应该有逆向观点来为投资者创造回报，但他们经常成为模仿投资者，扮演金融版的“跟随领导者”。这些领导人往往与最有钱的人一致。

This brings us to the concept of actual applications being built on a robust blockchain infrastructure within a healthy ecosystem of apps and users. While some envision a future with a billion users, others argue that the technology isn’t ready to scale, and skeptics dismiss the entire space as a bubble waiting to burst. Rather than getting caught up in speculation, it’s more productive to consider what a truly thriving community of blockchain applications might look like. The specific blockchain isn’t the key factor here — no single chain has emerged as the clear leader. Much like how telecom companies have found regional success worldwide, we’ll likely see multiple blockchains thriving in parallel.

这让我们想到了实际应用程序的概念，即在健康的应用程序和用户生态系统中构建在强大的区块链基础设施上。虽然一些人展望了拥有十亿用户的未来，但另一些人则认为该技术尚未准备好扩展，怀疑论者将整个领域视为等待破裂的泡沫。与其陷入猜测，不如考虑一个真正繁荣的区块链应用社区可能是什么样子，这样会更有成效。特定的区块链并不是这里的关键因素——没有任何一条链成为明显的领导者。就像电信公司在全球范围内取得区域性成功一样，我们可能会看到多个区块链并行蓬勃发展。

So, assuming the ideal blockchain infrastructure is in place, what would it mean for tens or even hundreds of millions of users to seamlessly interact on-chain in the future? And, crucially, how does this scenario create opportunities for retail investors and even VCs to achieve returns on their investments?

那么，假设理想的区块链基础设施已经到位，未来数千万甚至数亿用户在链上无缝交互意味着什么？更重要的是，这种情况如何为散户投资者甚至风险投资创造获得投资回报的机会？

In a market like this, builders from around the world would have the freedom to choose their preferred blockchain based on their specific needs and the resources those blockchains offer. From there, these builders would ideate on the companies they want to launch, start building, and eventually bring their products to market. Ideally, they would then raise venture capital to scale their operations once they gain traction. After proving their model, they might launch a token on exchanges to grow their treasury, using those funds to fuel further growth according to their tokenomics.

在这样的市场中，来自世界各地的构建者可以根据自己的具体需求和区块链提供的资源自由选择自己喜欢的区块链。从那里，这些建设者将构思他们想要创办的公司，开始建设，并最终将他们的产品推向市场。理想情况下，一旦获得关注，他们就会筹集风险资本来扩大业务规模。在证明他们的模型之后，他们可能会在交易所推出代币来增加他们的资金，根据他们的代币经济学，利用这些资金来推动进一步的增长。

Importantly, these companies would likely be raising money at more realistic valuations, as they would need to demonstrate they are building genuine businesses with sustainable revenue models. In this model, the blockchain would generate revenue from the blockspace used by these products, builders would profit as the value of the tokens they own increases, venture capitalists would see returns through token unlocks, and centralized

重要的是，这些公司可能会以更现实的估值筹集资金，因为他们需要证明他们正在建立具有可持续收入模式的真正业务。在这个模型中，区块链将从这些产品使用的区块空间中产生收入，建设者将随着他们拥有的代币价值的增加而获利，风险资本家将通过代币解锁获得回报，并且集中化