微妙而果断的转变正在激发全球市场

这种不稳定的环境曾经导致比特币下降，如今似乎助长了它的上升。

A subtle but decisive shift is stirring the global markets. The traditional pillars of finance are losing their aura, while assets once considered marginal are gaining legitimacy.

微妙但决定性的转变正在激发全球市场。传统的金融支柱正在失去其光环，而曾经被认为是边缘的资产正在获得合法性。

Indeed, growing distrust towards sovereign debts is shaking the bond market, once a foundation of stability. In this climate of uncertainty, one question arises: Bitcoin, often labeled speculative, might it be establishing itself as a true safe haven?

确实，对主权债务的不信任正在振作债券市场，这是稳定的基础。在这种不确定性的气氛中，出现了一个问题：比特币经常被标记为投机性，它是否可以将自己确立为真正的避风港？

The Bond Divide Challenges the Pillars of Global Finance

债券分裂挑战了全球金融的支柱

French bonds are losing credibility, in a context where their status as a safe haven is being questioned by the markets.

法国债券正在失去信誉，在市场受到市场质疑的避风港地位的情况下。

This is also the case for the United States and other developed countries. On May 22, the 30-year bond yield reached 5.15 %, a peak since October 2023. Yields are also rising in Japan, global growth is slowing, and US consumer confidence has reached historically low levels.

美国和其他发达国家也是如此。 5月22日，30年期债券收益率达到5.15％，这是2023年10月以来的高峰。日本的收益率也在增加，全球增长正在放缓，美国消费者的信心在历史上达到了较低的水平。

This unstable context, which would have once caused Bitcoin to fall, today seems to fuel its rise. At the same time, the gap between 5-year and 30-year bonds has exceeded 1 %, an unprecedented level since October 2021.

这种不稳定的环境曾经导致比特币下降，如今似乎助长了它的上升。同时，自2021年10月以来，5年期和30年期债券之间的差距超过了1％。

This signal reflects a profound revision of economic expectations :

该信号反映了经济期望的深刻修订：

The cost of US debt is exploding, with interest costs estimated at 952 billion dollars as early as 2025, on a total debt that has surpassed the 36.8 trillion dollar mark.

美国债务的成本正在爆炸，估计到2025年的利息成本估计为9520亿美元，总债务超过了36.8万亿美元的成本。

The situation is all the more worrying as the United States is not alone. Japan, the main foreign holder of US Treasury bonds at 1.13 trillion dollars, also sees its rates rise.

这种情况更加令人担忧，因为美国并不孤单。日本是美国国库券的主要外国持有人，价格为1.13万亿美元，也看到其利率上升。

The Bank of Japan raised its key interest rate from -0.1 % to 0.5 % in March 2024, ending decades of ultra-low rate policy. Since then, long-term yields have tightened: the 30-year rate reached 3.1 %, an all-time high, while the 20-year climbed to 2.53 %, a level unseen since 1999.

日本银行在2024年3月将其关键利率从-0.1％提高到0.5％，结束了数十年的超低利率政策。从那时起，长期收益率就增加了：30年的利率达到3.1％，历史最高，而20年的攀升至2.53％，这是自1999年以来看不见的水平。

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba even declared before parliament that his country’s budgetary situation was “worse than Greece’s,” a heavy statement for a country whose debt reaches 260% of GDP.

日本总理西格鲁·伊斯皮邦（Shigeru Ishiba）甚至在议会前宣布，他的国家的预算局势“比希腊还糟”，这对于一个债务达到GDP的260％的国家来说，这是一个巨大的声明。

This context nurtures widespread distrust of sovereign debt, including that of the most developed economies.

这种背景会促进对主权债务的普遍不信任，包括最发达经济体的债务。

Bitcoin Attracts Capital in Search of Neutrality and Resilience

比特币吸引资本来寻找中立和弹性

While government bonds struggle to fulfill their role as a safe haven, Bitcoin is now drawing massive institutional flows.

尽管政府纽带努力履行其作为避风港的角色，但比特币现在正在汲取大量的机构流动。

Contrary to the classic logic that a rise in bond yields penalizes risky assets, BTC continues to advance.

与经典逻辑相反，债券收益率会损害风险资产的经典逻辑，BTC继续前进。

Traditionally, rising yields were supposed to weigh on risk assets. Yet, stocks and Bitcoin are going up.

传统上，增加的收益率应该权衡风险资产。但是，股票和比特币正在上升。

This gap highlights a paradigm shift: investors seem to reject traditional diversification schemes and turn to assets outside the debt-based monetary system.

这一差距强调了一个范式转变：投资者似乎拒绝传统的多元化计划，并转向基于债务的货币体系之外的资产。

The rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs, with assets now exceeding 104 billion dollars according to CoinGlass data, illustrates this trend.

根据Coinglass数据，现货比特币ETF的兴起现在超过1004亿美元，说明了这一趋势。

This rush to BTC is explained by the search for an asset that is both high-performing and politically neutral.

人们对BTC的这种匆忙进行了解释，该资产既绩效又是政治上立的。

Bitcoin, until now perceived as a speculative asset, is increasingly regarded as a digital equivalent to gold. It appeals due to its independence from monetary policies, its finite supply, and its resilience against macroeconomic instability.

到目前为止，比特币被视为投机性资产，越来越被视为与黄金相当的数字化。由于其独立于货币政策，有限的供应以及对宏观经济不稳定的韧性，因此它吸引人。

The market is beginning to recognize that BTC can embody both a yield asset and a store of value, a dual role that until now seemed contradictory, especially since its volatility is now lower than that of the Nasdaq and S&P 500.

市场开始认识到，BTC可以体现出收益资产和价值存储，这是偶然的作用，直到现在，它似乎是矛盾的，尤其是因为它的波动性现在低于纳斯达克和标准普尔500指数。