微妙而果斷的轉變正在激發全球市場

這種不穩定的環境曾經導致比特幣下降，如今似乎助長了它的上升。

A subtle but decisive shift is stirring the global markets. The traditional pillars of finance are losing their aura, while assets once considered marginal are gaining legitimacy.

微妙但決定性的轉變正在激發全球市場。傳統的金融支柱正在失去其光環，而曾經被認為是邊緣的資產正在獲得合法性。

Indeed, growing distrust towards sovereign debts is shaking the bond market, once a foundation of stability. In this climate of uncertainty, one question arises: Bitcoin, often labeled speculative, might it be establishing itself as a true safe haven?

確實，對主權債務的不信任正在振作債券市場，這是穩定的基礎。在這種不確定性的氣氛中，出現了一個問題：比特幣經常被標記為投機性，它是否可以將自己確立為真正的避風港？

The Bond Divide Challenges the Pillars of Global Finance

債券分裂挑戰了全球金融的支柱

French bonds are losing credibility, in a context where their status as a safe haven is being questioned by the markets.

法國債券正在失去信譽，在市場受到市場質疑的避風港地位的情況下。

This is also the case for the United States and other developed countries. On May 22, the 30-year bond yield reached 5.15 %, a peak since October 2023. Yields are also rising in Japan, global growth is slowing, and US consumer confidence has reached historically low levels.

美國和其他發達國家也是如此。 5月22日，30年期債券收益率達到5.15％，這是2023年10月以來的高峰。日本的收益率也在增加，全球增長正在放緩，美國消費者的信心在歷史上達到了較低的水平。

This unstable context, which would have once caused Bitcoin to fall, today seems to fuel its rise. At the same time, the gap between 5-year and 30-year bonds has exceeded 1 %, an unprecedented level since October 2021.

這種不穩定的環境曾經導致比特幣下降，如今似乎助長了它的上升。同時，自2021年10月以來，5年期和30年期債券之間的差距超過了1％。

This signal reflects a profound revision of economic expectations :

該信號反映了經濟期望的深刻修訂：

The cost of US debt is exploding, with interest costs estimated at 952 billion dollars as early as 2025, on a total debt that has surpassed the 36.8 trillion dollar mark.

美國債務的成本正在爆炸，估計到2025年的利息成本估計為9520億美元，總債務超過了36.8萬億美元的成本。

The situation is all the more worrying as the United States is not alone. Japan, the main foreign holder of US Treasury bonds at 1.13 trillion dollars, also sees its rates rise.

這種情況更加令人擔憂，因為美國並不孤單。日本是美國國庫券的主要外國持有人，價格為1.13萬億美元，也看到其利率上升。

The Bank of Japan raised its key interest rate from -0.1 % to 0.5 % in March 2024, ending decades of ultra-low rate policy. Since then, long-term yields have tightened: the 30-year rate reached 3.1 %, an all-time high, while the 20-year climbed to 2.53 %, a level unseen since 1999.

日本銀行在2024年3月將其關鍵利率從-0.1％提高到0.5％，結束了數十年的超低利率政策。從那時起，長期收益率就增加了：30年的利率達到3.1％，歷史最高，而20年的攀升至2.53％，這是自1999年以來看不見的水平。

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba even declared before parliament that his country’s budgetary situation was “worse than Greece’s,” a heavy statement for a country whose debt reaches 260% of GDP.

日本總理西格魯·伊斯皮邦（Shigeru Ishiba）甚至在議會前宣布，他的國家的預算局勢“比希臘還糟”，這對於一個債務達到GDP的260％的國家來說，這是一個巨大的聲明。

This context nurtures widespread distrust of sovereign debt, including that of the most developed economies.

這種背景會促進對主權債務的普遍不信任，包括最發達經濟體的債務。

Bitcoin Attracts Capital in Search of Neutrality and Resilience

比特幣吸引資本來尋找中立和彈性

While government bonds struggle to fulfill their role as a safe haven, Bitcoin is now drawing massive institutional flows.

儘管政府紐帶努力履行其作為避風港的角色，但比特幣現在正在汲取大量的機構流動。

Contrary to the classic logic that a rise in bond yields penalizes risky assets, BTC continues to advance.

與經典邏輯相反，債券收益率會損害風險資產的經典邏輯，BTC繼續前進。

Traditionally, rising yields were supposed to weigh on risk assets. Yet, stocks and Bitcoin are going up.

傳統上，增加的收益率應該權衡風險資產。但是，股票和比特幣正在上升。

This gap highlights a paradigm shift: investors seem to reject traditional diversification schemes and turn to assets outside the debt-based monetary system.

這一差距強調了一個範式轉變：投資者似乎拒絕傳統的多元化計劃，並轉向基於債務的貨幣體系之外的資產。

The rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs, with assets now exceeding 104 billion dollars according to CoinGlass data, illustrates this trend.

根據Coinglass數據，現貨比特幣ETF的興起現在超過1004億美元，說明了這一趨勢。

This rush to BTC is explained by the search for an asset that is both high-performing and politically neutral.

人們對BTC的這種匆忙進行了解釋，該資產既績效又是政治上立的。

Bitcoin, until now perceived as a speculative asset, is increasingly regarded as a digital equivalent to gold. It appeals due to its independence from monetary policies, its finite supply, and its resilience against macroeconomic instability.

到目前為止，比特幣被視為投機性資產，越來越被視為與黃金相當的數字化。由於其獨立於貨幣政策，有限的供應以及對宏觀經濟不穩定的韌性，因此它吸引人。

The market is beginning to recognize that BTC can embody both a yield asset and a store of value, a dual role that until now seemed contradictory, especially since its volatility is now lower than that of the Nasdaq and S&P 500.

市場開始認識到，BTC可以體現出收益資產和價值存儲，這是偶然的作用，直到現在，它似乎是矛盾的，尤其是因為它的波動性現在低於納斯達克和標準普爾500指數。