2021 年 5 月式的比特币崩盘即将来临吗？

比特币价格已跌破 60,000 美元的关键支撑位，触及 57,914 美元的低点。自周二以来，比特币进一步下跌7%

Bitcoin (BTC) price has fallen below the critical support level of $60,000, reaching a low of $57,914. This marks a further 7% decline since Tuesday, reinforcing the ongoing downward trend.

比特币（BTC）价格已跌破 60,000 美元的关键支撑位，触及 57,914 美元的低点。这标志着自周二以来进一步下跌 7%，强化了持续的下降趋势。

Currently, market sentiment is shifting markedly towards the bearish side.

目前，市场情绪明显转向看跌。

Is A May 2021-Style Bitcoin Crash Looming?

2021 年 5 月式的比特币崩盘即将来临吗？

Co-founder of Mechanism Capital, Andrew Kang, has raised significant concerns regarding the pattern emerging in the Bitcoin market, which is reminiscent of the conditions that led to the dramatic crash of May 2021.

Mechanism Capital 联合创始人 Andrew Kang 对比特币市场出现的模式表示严重担忧，这让人想起导致 2021 年 5 月剧烈崩盘的情况。

In a detailed analysis shared via X (formerly Twitter), Kang highlighted a critical aspect that is being overlooked by most market participants.

在通过 X（以前称为 Twitter）分享的详细分析中，Kang 强调了大多数市场参与者忽视的一个关键方面。

“Most market participants are not appreciating the significance of a potential loss of a 4-month range on Bitcoin. The closest parallel we can draw is to that of the range of May 2021 where we also came off a parabolic rally of BTC and alts.”

“大多数市场参与者并没有意识到比特币 4 个月范围内潜在损失的重要性。我们可以得出的最接近的相似之处是 2021 年 5 月的区间，当时我们也经历了 BTC 和山寨币的抛物线反弹。”

He noted the similarities in market conditions, particularly in terms of leveraged positions, which currently exceed $50 billion. “This figure does not include the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which is higher, but compounded by the fact that in this scenario we have ranged even longer (18 weeks vs. 13), and we have not had extreme washouts yet while we had a few in the middle of the 2020-2021 bull market,” Kang elaborated.

他指出了市场状况的相似之处，特别是在杠杆头寸方面，目前杠杆头寸超过 500 亿美元。 “这个数字不包括芝加哥商品交易所 (CME)，它的价格更高，但更复杂的是，在这种情况下，我们的波动范围更长（18 周 vs. 13 周），而且我们还没有遇到极端的冲刷，而我们在 2020 年至 2021 年牛市中期有一些，”康解释道。

Kang also adjusted his projections for Bitcoin’s bottom, suggesting a steeper fall than earlier anticipated: “It’s likely that my initial estimates of low $50ks were too conservative and we see a more extreme reset to $40k.” He warned that such a pullback could significantly damage the market, necessitating a few months of consolidation and a downtrend before any reversal to an upward trend might be conceivable.

Kang 还调整了他对比特币底部的预测，表明比特币的跌幅比之前预期的要大：“我对 5 万美元低点的最初估计可能过于保守，我们看到更极端的重置为 4 万美元。”他警告说，这种回调可能会严重损害市场，需要几个月的盘整和下降趋势，然后才能逆转上升趋势。

In a dialogue with Alex Krüger, a well-known macro and crypto analyst, the discussion explored the intricacies of open interest (OI) in the derivatives market, a crucial aspect of understanding market sentiment and directional biases. Krüger pointed out, “Much of that OI is not directional though,” suggesting a more complex market behavior than straightforward long and short positions.

在与著名宏观和加密货币分析师 Alex Krüger 的对话中，讨论探讨了衍生品市场中未平仓合约 (OI) 的复杂性，这是理解市场情绪和方向偏差的一个重要方面。克鲁格指出，“不过，大部分 OI 都不是方向性的”，这表明市场行为比简单的多头和空头头寸更为复杂。

Responding, Kang clarified the composition of OI, saying, “Each unit of OI is one long + one short. Even if there are basis trade shorts on the short leg, there’s a directional long on the other end. So yes… less directional shorts.” The conversation further delved into whether derivatives traders are delta neutral, which affects market stability.

对此，康澄清了OI的构成，他说：“OI的每个单元是一长+一短。即使空头有基差交易空头，另一端也有定向多头。所以是的……减少定向短裤。”谈话进一步深入探讨了衍生品交易者是否保持德尔塔中性，这会影响市场的稳定性。

Krüger queried about market maker positions, and Kang responded, “I can assure you that there are not many market makers in the OI that are delta neutral long perps and short spot paying funding/borrow on both ends for a negative carry trade.”

Krüger 询问了做市商头寸的情况，Kang 回答说：“我可以向您保证，OI 中没有多少做市商是 Delta 中性多头永续合约和空头现货，两端都为负利差交易支付资金/借款。”

What Happened In May 2021?

2021 年 5 月发生了什么？

This ongoing discussion among experts reflects a deepening concern over the potential for a repeat of the May 2021 crash. During that period, Bitcoin’s price plummeted dramatically following a peak of around $64,000 in mid-April 2021. By the end of June, it had lost about 56% of its value.

专家之间正在进行的讨论反映出人们对 2021 年 5 月崩盘可能重演的担忧日益加深。在此期间，比特币的价格在 2021 年 4 月中旬达到 64,000 美元左右的峰值后急剧下跌。到 6 月底，其价值已损失约 56%。

This crash was precipitated by a mix of factors, including regulatory crackdowns in China, environmental concerns voiced by influential figures like Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and a resulting cascade of panic selling among both retail and institutional investors.

这次崩盘是由多种因素促成的，包括中国的监管打压、特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克等有影响力人物表达的环境担忧，以及由此引发的散户和机构投资者的恐慌性抛售。

In retrospect, the May 2021 downturn was characterized by a rapid shift in investor sentiment, driven by external shocks and exacerbated by the high levels of leverage in the market. Today, similar conditions could be forming according to Kang, with high leverage and extended periods without significant price corrections, suggesting that the market may be on the brink of another severe downturn.

回想起来，2021年5月的经济低迷的特点是投资者情绪在外部冲击的推动下迅速转变，并因市场高杠杆水平而加剧。康表示，如今，类似的情况可能正在形成，杠杆率很高，而且价格长期没有大幅调整，这表明市场可能正处于另一次严重下滑的边缘。

At press time, BTC traded at $58,736.

截至发稿时，BTC 交易价格为 58,736 美元。