对于比特币来说，这是漫长而奇怪的一年（BTC 2.53％）

对于比特币来说，这是漫长而奇怪的一年（BTC 2.53％），而且只有三月。这一年从很多大张旗鼓开始

It's been a long, strange year for Bitcoin (BTC 2.53%) -- and it's only March. The year started off with a lot of fanfare, as the cryptocurrency hit a new all-time high of $109,000 on Jan. 20. But it soon fell below $100,000. Then $90,000. And recently, it was below $80,000 briefly, before bouncing back just a bit.

对于比特币来说，这是漫长而奇怪的一年（BTC 2.53％），而且只有三月。这一年从1月20日的加密货币达到了109,000美元的新历史最高点，但很快下降到100,000美元以下。然后$ 90,000。最近，短暂的弹跳只是低于80,000美元。

But there's no time to panic. In fact, it might be time to buy the dip, and here's why.

但是没有时间惊慌。实际上，可能是时候购买蘸酱了，这就是原因。

The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to the rescue?

战略性比特币保留救援？

The potential big catalyst for Bitcoin, of course, is the recent announcement of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. With an executive order from President Trump, the U.S. government has now moved to consolidate its holdings of Bitcoin. It will no longer be selling. That's a big move, given that the U.S. currently holds approximately 200,000 bitcoins.

当然，比特币的潜在大催化剂是最近宣布战略比特币储备的消息。根据特朗普总统的行政命令，美国政府现在已开始巩固其比特币的持股。它将不再出售。鉴于美国目前拥有约200,000比特币，这是一个很大的举动。

But the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is underwhelming in many respects. It does not directly commit the U.S. government to buying it, which was what the whole idea of the reserve was supposed to be. As originally planned, the U.S. government was supposed to buy 200,000 bitcoins per year for the next five years, giving it a very substantial hoard at the end of that time period.

但是在许多方面，战略性比特币储备都令人难以置信。它并不直接承诺美国政府购买它，这是储备金的整个想法。按照原本计划，美国政府本应在未来五年内每年购买200,000比特币，在该时期结束时给它带来了非常重大的ho积。

So it's understandable that many crypto investors are disappointed about the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. After briefly spiking higher on the news, the digital coin began to sell off.

因此，可以理解的是，许多加密投资者对战略比特币储备感到失望。在新闻中短暂地提高了这一消息之后，数字硬币开始卖出。

Adding insult to injury, The Wall Street Journal editorial board called the reserve "fool's gold." That was particularly stinging, given that Bitcoin has typically been referred to as "digital gold."

华尔街日报编辑委员会称其为“愚人的黄金”。鉴于比特币通常被称为“数字黄金”，这尤其令人震惊。

From my perspective, the U.S. government is going to find a budget-neutral way (i.e., no taxpayer funds used) to buy new tokens, even if it means using some creative accounting moves. One methodology, according to Bloomberg, calls for the government to revalue its current gold holdings. Doing so could give it new leeway to buy Bitcoin. Others have suggested that any DOGE cost savings could be used to load up on Bitcoin.

从我的角度来看，美国政府将找到一种预算中立的方式（即，没有纳税人资金）来购买新令牌，即使这意味着使用一些创意会计动作。根据彭博社的说法，一种方法要求政府重估其目前的黄金持有量。这样做可以给购买比特币的新余地。其他人建议可以节省任何Doge成本，以加载比特币。

The downside of being a mainstream asset

成为主流资产的缺点

For much of its history, Bitcoin was largely uncorrelated with any other asset. That was part of its appeal: It could zig when other assets zagged. And it meant that Bitcoin could continue to go up, regardless of the overall economy. This made it a very special type of asset.

在其大部分历史上，比特币与任何其他资产都在很大程度上不相关。这是其吸引力的一部分：当其他资产降低时，它可能会锯齿。这意味着无论总体经济如何，比特币都可以继续上升。这使其成为一种非常特殊的资产。

Image source: Getty Images.

图像来源：盖蒂图像。

But something very important happened in January of last year. That was when the new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were launched, immediately making buying it as easy as buying a tech stock.

但是去年1月发生了一些非常重要的事情。那时，新的现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的推出，立即使购买与购买科技股一样容易。

The product launch was wildly successful, and over $100 billion has flowed into these spot Bitcoin ETFs. Some of the biggest buyers were hedge funds, Wall Street investment banks, and investment management firms.

产品发布非常成功，超过1000亿美元流入了这些现货比特币ETF。一些最大的买家是对冲基金，华尔街投资银行和投资管理公司。

But there is a downside from going mainstream. It also makes the crypto much more susceptible to the daily ebbs and flows of macroeconomic news. The same people deciding which stocks to buy are also deciding which cryptos to buy. If there's news about tariffs, for example, that's going to affect Bitcoin. If there's news about a potential recession, then it is going to do the same.

但是，主流有一个缺点。这也使加密货币更容易受到宏观经济新闻的潮起潮落和流动。同一位决定购买哪些股票的人也决定要购买哪些加密货币。例如，如果有关于关税的消息，那将影响比特币。如果有关于潜在衰退的消息，那么它将做同样的事情。

The one factor that I'm watching right now is how much money is flowing into (and out of) the spot Bitcoin ETFs. These figures are reported by CoinShares every week and are easy to track.

我现在正在观看的一个因素是，有多少钱流入了比特币ETF（脱离）。这些数字每周都会由Coinshares报告，并且易于跟踪。

If there are significant outflows, it's a pretty good bet that the crypto's price is going to have a hard time moving upward. And, conversely, if there are significant inflows, it suggests that Bitcoin will rebound soon. Right now, there have been four straight weeks of outflows, so things need to turn around fast.

如果出现大量流出，那么一个很好的选择，加密货币的价格将很难上升。而且，相反，如果有大量流入，它表明比特币将很快反弹。目前，已经连续四个星期的流出了，所以事情需要快速转身。

Where will Bitcoin be at the end of 2025?

比特币在2025年底会在哪里？

Some investors continue to cling to overly optimistic price estimates, confident that catalysts such as the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve are going to send the digital coin to the moon. They are fully expecting it to hit $150,000, and maybe even $200,000 this year. After all, it delivered triple-digit returns in 2023 and 2024 against a backdrop of economic weakness, so why not in 2025 as well?

一些投资者继续坚持过度乐观的价格估计，确信诸如战略比特币储备等催化剂将使数字硬币送到月球。他们完全期望它达到150,000美元，甚至今年甚至可能达到200,000美元。毕竟，它在2023年和2024年在经济弱点的背景下带来了三位数的回报，那么为什么不在2025年也不呢？

The only problem is that the likelihood of it soaring to new all-time highs continues to decline. Right now, if you look at what online prediction sites are telling us, there is only a 27% chance of Bitcoin hitting $150,000 this year, and only a 17% chance of hitting $20

唯一的问题是，它飙升至新历史高潮的可能性继续下降。目前，如果您查看在线预测网站告诉我们的内容，今年只有27％的比特币达到150,000美元的机会，只有17％的机会可以达到20美元