對於比特幣來說，這是漫長而奇怪的一年（BTC 2.53％）

對於比特幣來說，這是漫長而奇怪的一年（BTC 2.53％），而且只有三月。這一年從很多大張旗鼓開始

It's been a long, strange year for Bitcoin (BTC 2.53%) -- and it's only March. The year started off with a lot of fanfare, as the cryptocurrency hit a new all-time high of $109,000 on Jan. 20. But it soon fell below $100,000. Then $90,000. And recently, it was below $80,000 briefly, before bouncing back just a bit.

對於比特幣來說，這是漫長而奇怪的一年（BTC 2.53％），而且只有三月。這一年從1月20日的加密貨幣達到了109,000美元的新歷史最高點，但很快下降到100,000美元以下。然後$ 90,000。最近，短暫的彈跳只是低於80,000美元。

But there's no time to panic. In fact, it might be time to buy the dip, and here's why.

但是沒有時間驚慌。實際上，可能是時候購買蘸醬了，這就是原因。

The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to the rescue?

戰略性比特幣保留救援？

The potential big catalyst for Bitcoin, of course, is the recent announcement of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. With an executive order from President Trump, the U.S. government has now moved to consolidate its holdings of Bitcoin. It will no longer be selling. That's a big move, given that the U.S. currently holds approximately 200,000 bitcoins.

當然，比特幣的潛在大催化劑是最近宣布戰略比特幣儲備的消息。根據特朗普總統的行政命令，美國政府現在已開始鞏固其比特幣的持股。它將不再出售。鑑於美國目前擁有約200,000比特幣，這是一個很大的舉動。

But the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is underwhelming in many respects. It does not directly commit the U.S. government to buying it, which was what the whole idea of the reserve was supposed to be. As originally planned, the U.S. government was supposed to buy 200,000 bitcoins per year for the next five years, giving it a very substantial hoard at the end of that time period.

但是在許多方面，戰略性比特幣儲備都令人難以置信。它並不直接承諾美國政府購買它，這是儲備金的整個想法。按照原本計劃，美國政府本應在未來五年內每年購買200,000比特幣，在該時期結束時給它帶來了非常重大的ho積。

So it's understandable that many crypto investors are disappointed about the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. After briefly spiking higher on the news, the digital coin began to sell off.

因此，可以理解的是，許多加密投資者對戰略比特幣儲備感到失望。在新聞中短暫地提高了這一消息之後，數字硬幣開始賣出。

Adding insult to injury, The Wall Street Journal editorial board called the reserve "fool's gold." That was particularly stinging, given that Bitcoin has typically been referred to as "digital gold."

華爾街日報編輯委員會稱其為“愚人的黃金”。鑑於比特幣通常被稱為“數字黃金”，這尤其令人震驚。

From my perspective, the U.S. government is going to find a budget-neutral way (i.e., no taxpayer funds used) to buy new tokens, even if it means using some creative accounting moves. One methodology, according to Bloomberg, calls for the government to revalue its current gold holdings. Doing so could give it new leeway to buy Bitcoin. Others have suggested that any DOGE cost savings could be used to load up on Bitcoin.

從我的角度來看，美國政府將找到一種預算中立的方式（即，沒有納稅人資金）來購買新令牌，即使這意味著使用一些創意會計動作。根據彭博社的說法，一種方法要求政府重估其目前的黃金持有量。這樣做可以給購買比特幣的新余地。其他人建議可以節省任何Doge成本，以加載比特幣。

The downside of being a mainstream asset

成為主流資產的缺點

For much of its history, Bitcoin was largely uncorrelated with any other asset. That was part of its appeal: It could zig when other assets zagged. And it meant that Bitcoin could continue to go up, regardless of the overall economy. This made it a very special type of asset.

在其大部分歷史上，比特幣與任何其他資產都在很大程度上不相關。這是其吸引力的一部分：當其他資產降低時，它可能會鋸齒。這意味著無論總體經濟如何，比特幣都可以繼續上升。這使其成為一種非常特殊的資產。

Image source: Getty Images.

圖像來源：蓋蒂圖像。

But something very important happened in January of last year. That was when the new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were launched, immediately making buying it as easy as buying a tech stock.

但是去年1月發生了一些非常重要的事情。那時，新的現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的推出，立即使購買與購買科技股一樣容易。

The product launch was wildly successful, and over $100 billion has flowed into these spot Bitcoin ETFs. Some of the biggest buyers were hedge funds, Wall Street investment banks, and investment management firms.

產品發布非常成功，超過1000億美元流入了這些現貨比特幣ETF。一些最大的買家是對沖基金，華爾街投資銀行和投資管理公司。

But there is a downside from going mainstream. It also makes the crypto much more susceptible to the daily ebbs and flows of macroeconomic news. The same people deciding which stocks to buy are also deciding which cryptos to buy. If there's news about tariffs, for example, that's going to affect Bitcoin. If there's news about a potential recession, then it is going to do the same.

但是，主流有一個缺點。這也使加密貨幣更容易受到宏觀經濟新聞的潮起潮落和流動。同一位決定購買哪些股票的人也決定要購買哪些加密貨幣。例如，如果有關於關稅的消息，那將影響比特幣。如果有關於潛在衰退的消息，那麼它將做同樣的事情。

The one factor that I'm watching right now is how much money is flowing into (and out of) the spot Bitcoin ETFs. These figures are reported by CoinShares every week and are easy to track.

我現在正在觀看的一個因素是，有多少錢流入了比特幣ETF（脫離）。這些數字每週都會由Coinshares報告，並且易於跟踪。

If there are significant outflows, it's a pretty good bet that the crypto's price is going to have a hard time moving upward. And, conversely, if there are significant inflows, it suggests that Bitcoin will rebound soon. Right now, there have been four straight weeks of outflows, so things need to turn around fast.

如果出現大量流出，那麼一個很好的選擇，加密貨幣的價格將很難上升。而且，相反，如果有大量流入，它表明比特幣將很快反彈。目前，已經連續四個星期的流出了，所以事情需要快速轉身。

Where will Bitcoin be at the end of 2025?

比特幣在2025年底會在哪裡？

Some investors continue to cling to overly optimistic price estimates, confident that catalysts such as the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve are going to send the digital coin to the moon. They are fully expecting it to hit $150,000, and maybe even $200,000 this year. After all, it delivered triple-digit returns in 2023 and 2024 against a backdrop of economic weakness, so why not in 2025 as well?

一些投資者繼續堅持過度樂觀的價格估計，確信諸如戰略比特幣儲備等催化劑將使數字硬幣送到月球。他們完全期望它達到150,000美元，甚至今年甚至可能達到200,000美元。畢竟，它在2023年和2024年在經濟弱點的背景下帶來了三位數的回報，那麼為什麼不在2025年也不呢？

The only problem is that the likelihood of it soaring to new all-time highs continues to decline. Right now, if you look at what online prediction sites are telling us, there is only a 27% chance of Bitcoin hitting $150,000 this year, and only a 17% chance of hitting $20

唯一的問題是，它飆升至新歷史高潮的可能性繼續下降。目前，如果您查看在線預測網站告訴我們的內容，今年只有27％的比特幣達到150,000美元的機會，只有17％的機會可以達到20美元