Solana (SOL) 是否存在清洗交易问题？ VanEck 的分析是这样的

VanEck 数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 周二发表了一份深入分析，将 SOL 的指标与以太坊的指标进行了比较，以提供背景和清晰度。

VanEck’s proposal for a spot Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States has faced scrutiny, particularly over concerns regarding wash trading and the nature of on-chain activity.

VanEck 在美国提出的现货 Solana (SOL) 交易所交易基金 (ETF) 提案面临着审查，特别是出于对清洗交易和链上活动性质的担忧。

In an effort to provide context and clarity, Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, published an in-depth analysis on Tuesday that compares SOL’s metrics with those of Ethereum.

为了提供背景和清晰度，VanEck 数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 于周二发布了一份深入分析，将 SOL 的指标与以太坊的指标进行了比较。

Solana has gained attention for its high throughput and low transaction costs, which have attracted a vast number of users and developers. With approximately 111 million monthly active wallets, Solana far surpasses Ethereum’s 5.4 million. However, skeptics have argued that a large portion of these wallets may be Sybil accounts—fake identities created to manipulate metrics.

Solana 以其高吞吐量和低交易成本而受到关注，吸引了广大用户和开发者。 Solana 每月活跃钱包数量约为 1.11 亿，远远超过以太坊的 540 万。然而，怀疑论者认为，这些钱包的很大一部分可能是 Sybil 账户——为操纵指标而创建的虚假身份。

In his analysis, Sigel acknowledges the difficulty in distinguishing between organic user activity and that stemming from single users controlling multiple wallets. “We do agree that a very large portion of these wallets are not organic,” he states.

在他的分析中，Sigel 承认很难区分自然用户活动和单个用户控制多个钱包的活动。 “我们确实同意这些钱包很大一部分不是有机的，”他表示。

The analysis reveals that memecoin and non-fungible token (NFT) activities constitute a significant portion of Solana’s revenue. In the current year, approximately 34.3% of Solana’s revenues are derived from these sources, compared to 6.6% for Ethereum and 20.3% for Ethereum during its peak memecoin activity between July and October 2021.

分析显示，memecoin 和不可替代代币 (NFT) 活动构成了 Solana 收入的重要组成部分。今年，Solana 约 34.3% 的收入来自这些来源，而以太坊的收入为 6.6%，以太坊在 2021 年 7 月至 10 月 memecoin 活动高峰期的收入为 20.3%。

When assessing wash trading—a practice where traders buy and sell the same asset to artificially inflate volumes—Solana’s figures are notably higher. An estimated 41.4% of memecoin and NFT volume on Solana is attributed to wash trading. In contrast, Ethereum’s wash trading for these assets stands at 28.9% in 2024 and was 44.4% during its 2021 peak.

在评估清洗交易（交易者买卖同一资产以人为抬高交易量的做法）时，Solana 的数字明显更高。据估计，Solana 上 41.4% 的 memecoin 和 NFT 交易量归因于清洗交易。相比之下，以太坊这些资产的清洗交易在 2024 年为 28.9%，在 2021 年峰值期间为 44.4%。

“Putting it together, we assess that 14.2% of Solana revenues come directly from wash trading compared to 2% for Ethereum in 2024 and 9% in mid-2021,” Sigel notes. He adds a crucial caveat: the analysis assumes that memecoin wash trading generates miner extractable value (MEV) in line with normal trading. Without MEV on these trades, the estimates would fall by 50%.

Sigel 指出：“综上所述，我们评估 Solana 14.2% 的收入直接来自清洗交易，而 2024 年以太坊的这一比例为 2%，2021 年中期为 9%。”他补充了一个重要的警告：分析假设 memecoin 清洗交易会产生与正常交易一致的矿工可提取价值（MEV）。如果这些行业没有 MEV，预估将下降 50%。

To conduct this analysis, the study utilized Dune Analytics queries of both Solana and Ethereum blockchains to accumulate memecoin and NFT activity over specified periods. BothArtemis, Jito, and Flashbots were used to evaluate each chain’s gas fee revenue and MEV. For wash trading identification, the analysis employed a threshold ratio of daily trading volume to a coin’s market capitalization.

为了进行此分析，该研究利用 Solana 和以太坊区块链的 Dune Analytics 查询来累积特定时期内的 memecoin 和 NFT 活动。 Artemis、Jito 和 Flashbots 都被用来评估每条链的 Gas 费收入和 MEV。对于清洗交易识别，该分析采用了每日交易量与代币市值的阈值比率。

Several reasons are cited by Sigel for the elevated levels of memecoin trading and wash trading on Solana. First, SOL’s transaction fees are approximately 1/10,000th of Ethereum’s, reducing the opportunity cost of wash trading. Second, the architecture offers a superior user experience for memecoin trading due to its high throughput and low latency.

Sigel 列举了 Solana 上 memecoin 交易和清洗交易水平升高的几个原因。首先，SOL的交易费用约为以太坊的1/10,000，降低了洗盘交易的机会成本。其次，由于其高吞吐量和低延迟，该架构为 memecoin 交易提供了卓越的用户体验。

Third, platforms like Pump.fun simplify memecoin trading, encouraging higher activity levels. Fourth, the approach to MEV may inadvertently inflate trading volumes. “Solana’s MEV trading is driven by statistics-driven assessments of landing a transaction through submitting many orders for the same trade. Some of these likely land without capturing MEV, and this may juice trading figures higher than on Ethereum,” Sigel explained.

第三，像 Pump.fun 这样的平台简化了 memecoin 交易，鼓励更高的活动水平。第四，MEV 方法可能会无意中增加交易量。 “Solana 的 MEV 交易是由统计驱动的评估驱动的，该评估通过提交同一交易的许多订单来完成交易。其中一些可能在没有捕获 MEV 的情况下着陆，这可能会使交易数据高于以太坊，”Sigel 解释道。

What Does That Mean For A Spot SOL ETF?

这对于现货 SOL ETF 意味着什么？

Sigel draws crucial comparisons between SOL and established companies like Alibaba, DraftKings, and CME Group to provide perspective on speculative trading activities. In Alibaba’s case, there was initial skepticism about package volumes that may have included ’empty packages’ to boost metrics prior to its 2014 IPO. DraftKings and CME Group both derive substantial revenue from speculative trading, often providing incentives like reduced fees or rebates to stimulate activity.

Sigel 对 SOL 与阿里巴巴、DraftKings 和 CME Group 等老牌公司进行了重要比较，以提供对投机交易活动的看法。以阿里巴巴为例，最初有人对包裹数量表示怀疑，因为在 2014 年 IPO 之前，包裹数量可能包括“空包裹”以提高指标。 DraftKings 和 CME 集团都从投机交易中获得大量收入，通常提供降低费用或回扣等激励措施来刺激活动。

By contrast, Solana does not incentivize users in the same manner. Its high activity levels are attributed to its low-cost, high-throughput design. “Solana’s on-chain activity is concentrated mainly in memecoins, making it a hub for speculative assets in the crypto world,” Sigel notes. However, he emphasizes that Solana has the potential to expand beyond speculation into impactful use cases such as decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN) and social media applications.

相比之下，Solana 并没有以同样的方式激励用户。其高活性水平归因于其低成本、高通量设计。 “Solana 的链上活动主要集中在模因币，这使其成为加密世界中投机资产的中心，”Sigel 指出。不过，他强调，Solana 有潜力超越猜测，扩展到有影响力的用例，例如去中心化物理基础设施网络 (DePIN) 和社交媒体应用程序。

While memecoins significantly contribute to the current revenue, its valuation—approximately 250 times forward revenue—reflects investor expectations for future growth in non-speculative applications.

虽然 memecoin 对当前收入做出了巨大贡献，但其估值（约是远期收入的 250 倍）反映了投资者对非投机性应用未来增长的预期。

Notably, the analysis has direct implications for VanEck’s proposed spot SOL ETF in the United States. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has “identified possible sources of fraud and manipulation in the SOL market generally, including, among others, wash trading.”

值得注意的是，该分析对 VanEck 在美国提议的现货 SOL ETF 有直接影响。美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 已“确定了 SOL 市场中可能存在的欺诈和操纵来源，其中包括清洗交易”。

Given that a substantial portion of revenues may be derived from suspicious trading activities, VanEck has included

鉴于很大一部分收入可能来自可疑交易活动，VanEck 包括