黑莓时代结束了。 BlackBerry曾经是一家高飞技术巨头，在移动设备革命中发挥了关键作用，BlackBerry未能在快速发展的消费技术市场中进行创新，并最终失败了。

现在，Cardano创建者查尔斯·霍斯金森（Charles Hoskinson）警告说，以太坊可能几乎失败。霍斯金森（Hoskinson）认为，随着用户迁移到其他区块链和设计缺陷，世界第二大加密货币将无法在未来10至15年内生存。

BlackBerry era is over. Once a high-flying tech giant that played a key role in the mobile device revolution, BlackBerry failed to innovate in a rapidly evolving consumer technology market and eventually failed spectacularly.

黑莓时代结束了。 BlackBerry曾经是一家高飞技术巨头，在移动设备革命中发挥了关键作用，BlackBerry未能在快速发展的消费技术市场中进行创新，并最终失败了。

Now, Cardano creator Charles Hoskinson warns that Ethereum could be next to fail. Hoskinson believes the world’s second-largest crypto will not survive over the next 10 to 15 years as users migrate to other blockchains and design flaws persist.

现在，Cardano创建者查尔斯·霍斯金森（Charles Hoskinson）警告说，以太坊可能几乎失败。霍斯金森（Hoskinson）认为，随着用户迁移到其他区块链和设计缺陷，世界第二大加密货币将无法在未来10至15年内生存。

In a recent AMA session, Charles Hoskinson claimed that Ethereum’s accounting model, virtual machine, and consensus model are badly designed — a triad of architectural flaws that he thinks are a bane for the blockchain network’s survival.

在最近的AMA会议上，查尔斯·霍斯金森（Charles Hoskinson）声称，以太坊的会计模型，虚拟机和共识模型的设计良好 - 他认为这是区块链网络生存的祸根的三合一。

“People told them not to do it, they did it, and they got where they needed to go,” he said, before warning that the fixes adopted so far “put in all these weird slashing economics and layer twos and other things,” whose unintentional outcomes are starting to bite.

他说：“人们告诉他们不要这样做，他们做到了，他们得到了需要去的地方。”他警告说，到目前为止采用的修复程序“投入了所有这些奇怪的经济学，两层二人的两者和其他事物”，他们的无意结局开始咬人。

“I don’t think Ethereum will survive…more than 10 years to 15 years,” Hoskinson asserted.

霍斯金森断言：“我认为以太坊不会生存……超过10年至15年。”

Hoskinson, who helped co-create Ethereum in 2014 before leaving to launch Cardano two years later, emphasized that Ethereum needs first to solve its technological issues, pointing specifically to its proof-of-stake system as something the network “needs to wean itself off,” as it is not built for long-term success.

霍斯金森（Hoskinson）于2014年帮助共同创造了以太坊，然后两年后离开了卡尔达诺（Cardano），他强调，以太坊首先需要解决其技术问题，专门指向其销售证明系统，因为网络“需要脱离断奶”，因为它没有为长期成功而建立。

“They’re going to have to solve the technological issues and they’re going to have to put in a good on-chain governance system so they can make the hard decisions and adjust the system parameters accordingly,” he said.

他说：“他们将不得不解决技术问题，并且必须提出一个良好的链子治理系统，以便他们做出艰难的决定并相应地调整系统参数。”

Hoskinson also slammed Ethereum’s layer-2s, which are driving activity away from the main chain. He described these L2s as “parasitic”, predicting that they will continue to suck all the alpha out of the main chain.

霍斯金森还抨击了以太坊的第2层，这些以太坊的2层正在从主链中推动活动。他将这些L2s描述为“寄生”，预测它们将继续将所有alpha从主链中吸出。

In his opinion, Ethereum does not have a good on-chain governance system that would help solve the aforementioned issues.

他认为，以太坊没有良好的链子治理体系，可以帮助解决上述问题。

“People will start fighting, and it’ll get harder and harder for Vitalik to be able to hold it together through sheer force of will, and users will gradually migrate to other places, and then they’re going to get eclipsed by Bitcoin DeFi,” the Cardano founder added.

Cardano创始人补充说：“人们将开始战斗，而Vitalik能够通过意志的纯粹力量将其固定在一起，并且用户将逐渐迁移到其他地方，然后他们将被比特币Defi黯然失色。”

He conceded that Ethereum is a “brilliant project,” but like Myspace and BlackBerry, the crypto could fade into oblivion as newer, more efficient systems take over.

他承认以太坊是一个“出色的项目”，但是像Myspace和Blackberry一样，加密货币可能会随着更新，更有效的系统接管而逐渐消失。

“It’s just a victim of its own success, like Myspace or any of these other things that have a lot of network effect and momentum. Blackberry is another example,” he stated. “And the other thing is they’re eaten alive by Solana.”

他说：“这只是其自身成功的受害者，例如Myspace或其他具有很大网络效果和动力的其他事物。黑莓就是另一个例子。” “另一件事是他们被索拉纳（Solana）活着吃。”