机构推动比特币飙升，零售交易员落后

比特币的最新涨势缺乏散户投资者的热情，而正是这种热情推动了 2021 年的飙升，Coinbase 报告称，消费者交易量大幅下降。尽管零售兴趣刚刚复苏，但仍远低于之前的高点。市场的制度化、对过去崩盘造成损失的恐惧以及替代加密货币的出现导致了散户投资者的撤退。他们是否以及何时回归仍不确定，因为市场正在经历波动并寻求重新点燃投机的催化剂。

Retail Traders: A Diminished Force in Bitcoin's Ascent

零售交易者：比特币上涨的力量减弱

Amidst the recent surge in Bitcoin's value, a noticeable departure has emerged: the dwindling presence of retail traders who once fueled the cryptocurrency's meteoric rise.

在近期比特币价值飙升的过程中，出现了一个明显的背离：曾经推动加密货币飞速上涨的散户交易员的数量正在减少。

Coinbase, a prominent crypto exchange, reported a mere $56 billion in consumer trading volumes during the first quarter of 2024, a period that witnessed Bitcoin scaling unprecedented heights near $74,000. While this figure indicates a nascent recovery in retail interest, doubling the volume observed in the final quarter of 2023, it pales in comparison to the $133.75 billion quarterly average witnessed during the comparable rally in 2021.

著名的加密货币交易所 Coinbase 报告称，2024 年第一季度的消费者交易量仅为 560 亿美元，而在此期间，比特币创下了接近 74,000 美元的前所未有的高度。虽然这一数字表明零售兴趣刚刚复苏，2023 年最后一个季度的交易量翻了一番，但与 2021 年同期反弹期间 1,337.5 亿美元的季度平均水平相比，显得相形见绌。

In stark contrast to the frenzy of 2021, the latest rally has been marked by a more measured and institutionalized approach, driven primarily by the introduction of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States.

与 2021 年的狂热形成鲜明对比的是，最近的反弹以更加谨慎和制度化的方式为标志，这主要是由美国引入比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 推动的。

"The burning question in crypto right now is: when will retail traders make their comeback?" remarked Michael Rinko, an analyst at Delphi Digital.

“目前加密货币领域最紧迫的问题是：散户交易者何时会卷土重来？”德尔福数字公司 (Delphi Digital) 分析师迈克尔·林科 (Michael Rinko) 说道。

Google Trends data provides further evidence of the retail retreat, revealing that search inquiries for "Bitcoin" in March were a mere fraction of the peak levels achieved in 2021.

谷歌趋势数据提供了零售业衰退的进一步证据，显示 3 月份“比特币”的搜索查询量仅是 2021 年峰值水平的一小部分。

Contributing to the diminished participation of retail investors is the lasting impact of the protracted crypto winter from 2020 to 2022, during which Bitcoin languished within a narrow range between $20,000 and $30,000. Furthermore, the implosion of prominent crypto firms such as Three Arrows Capital, Celsius Network, and FTX, whose founder Sam Bankman-Fried was recently sentenced to 25 years in prison for fraud, has resulted in billions of customer funds being frozen.

2020 年至 2022 年漫长的加密货币寒冬的持久影响导致散户投资者的参与度下降，在此期间，比特币在 20,000 美元至 30,000 美元的窄幅区间内徘徊。此外，三箭资本 (Three Arrows Capital)、Celsius Network 和 FTX 等著名加密货币公司的崩溃，导致数十亿客户资金被冻结，其创始人 Sam Bankman-Fried 最近因欺诈被判处 25 年监禁。

"The reduced activity is primarily attributable to the lessons learned during the tumultuous year that was 2022," said Vetle Lunde, an analyst at K33 Research. "The contagion and collapse of numerous retail-oriented lending platforms laid bare the significant risks lurking behind the allure of high yields."

K33 Research 分析师 Vetle Lunde 表示：“活动减少主要归因于 2022 年动荡的一年中吸取的教训。” “众多零售导向型贷款平台的蔓延和崩溃暴露了高收益诱惑背后潜藏的重大风险。”

Market observers speculate that Bitcoin, which comprises over half of the $2.26 trillion digital asset market capitalization, could face a period of rotation as investors capitalize on the coin's gains and seek refuge in riskier altcoins such as Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.

市场观察人士推测，比特币占 2.26 万亿美元数字资产市值的一半以上，随着投资者利用比特币的收益并寻求风险较高的山寨币（如市值第二大加密货币 Ether）的庇护，比特币可能会面临一段时期的轮换。 。

Ether, in particular, has lagged behind Bitcoin and has yet to surpass its 2021 peak. "Instead of mindlessly investing in the latest crypto craze, individuals are now prioritizing the security and stability of their investments," observed John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at crypto lending platform Ledn.

尤其是以太币，其表现落后于比特币，尚未超过 2021 年的峰值。加密借贷平台 Ledn 的首席投资官约翰·格洛弗 (John Glover) 表示：“个人现在不再盲目地投资最新的加密货币热潮，而是优先考虑投资的安全性和稳定性。”

The return of speculative crypto traders remains an open question. Currently, Bitcoin's descent to $62,809, a 15% drop from its mid-March peak, serves as a sobering reminder of the volatility and inherent risk associated with the asset class.

投机性加密货币交易者的回归仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。目前，比特币跌至 62,809 美元，较 3 月中旬的峰值下跌 15%，这清醒地提醒人们该资产类别的波动性和固有风险。

"The prevailing sentiment in crypto is that Bitcoin needs to reach $100,000 to entice the return of retail traders," stated Rinko of Delphi Digital. "Whether that specific figure will be the catalyst is uncertain, but we undoubtedly require a number that will ignite widespread FOMO."

Delphi Digital 的 Rinko 表示：“加密货币界普遍认为，比特币需要达到 10 万美元才能吸引散户回归。” “这个具体数字是否会成为催化剂还不确定，但我们无疑需要一个能够引发广泛的 FOMO 的数字。”