零售加密货币市场参与：数据表明什么

加密行业最大的问题之一是零售业是否参与了当前的反弹。零售入口通常标志着欣快感

Bitcoin has rallied by more than 40% over the past two months, putting the world’s largest cryptocurrency within 15% of its record high.

过去两个月，比特币上涨了 40% 以上，距离历史高点仅差 15%。

After bitcoin (BTC) price crashed out of the bull market in March of 2022, a number of analysts and investors began speculating that the bear market would end sometime in the second half of 2023.

2022 年 3 月，比特币 (BTC) 价格从牛市中崩溃后，许多分析师和投资者开始猜测熊市将在 2023 年下半年的某个时候结束。

Now that bitcoin is up 40% year-to-date, some are wondering if the recent rally is signaling that the bull market has returned early.

如今，比特币今年迄今已上涨 40%，一些人想知道最近的反弹是否表明牛市已经提前回归。

While bitcoin price action is certainly exhibiting signs of strength, and a number of analysts are growing increasingly bullish, several on-chain metrics suggest that retail investors are still largely on the sidelines.

虽然比特币价格走势确实显示出走强的迹象，而且许多分析师也越来越看好，但一些链上指标表明，散户投资者仍然在很大程度上保持观望。

Coinbase App Rankings Suggest Lack of Retail Interest

Coinbase 应用排名表明散户缺乏兴趣

One key metric that can indicate the level of retail participation in the market is the ranking of crypto exchange Coinbase’s CCOIN app in the app store.

能够表明市场零售参与水平的一项关键指标是加密货币交易所 Coinbase 的 CCOIN 应用程序在应用商店中的排名。

During the 2017 and 2021 bull markets, Coinbase became the number one downloaded app near those tops, and at bitcoin's recent market peak in March of this year, it ranked in the top 5,, according to @CoinbaseAppRankBot.

据 @CoinbaseAppRankBot 称，在 2017 年和 2021 年牛市期间，Coinbase 成为下载量排名第一的应用程序，在今年 3 月比特币市场达到顶峰时，它跻身前 5 名。

Coinbase App Rankings 2023 vs 2024 - March Peak

Coinbase 应用排名 2023 年与 2024 年 - 三月峰值

This year, however, Coinbase began the year ranked around 200, but slowly slid down to a low of 533 on May 23. Since then, the app has recovered slightly and currently ranks at number 438 in the finance category.

然而今年，Coinbase 年初排名在 200 名左右，但在 5 月 23 日缓慢下滑至 533 名的低点。此后，该应用程序略有回升，目前在金融类别中排名第 438 位。

This recent low in Coinbase app rankings is not far above the all-time low for the year, which is around 500, and also not far from where the app was ranking during the bear market of 2022.

Coinbase 应用程序排名的最新低点与今年的历史最低点（500 左右）相差不远，也与该应用程序在 2022 年熊市期间的排名相差不远。

Coinbase App Rankings 2023 vs 2022 Bear Market

Coinbase 应用排名 2023 年与 2022 年熊市

This continued lack of interest from retail investors is further supported by on-chain data, which shows that bitcoin short-term holders are largely underwater.

散户投资者持续缺乏兴趣得到了链上数据的进一步支持，该数据表明比特币短期持有者很大程度上处于水下。

Investors who have bought bitcoin within the past 155 days are considered short-term holders (STHs). This group of holders tends to factor heavily into market tops, as those chasing the market usually begin buying as the price starts to climb.

在过去 155 天内购买比特币的投资者被视为短期持有者 (STH)。这群持有者往往会在很大程度上考虑市场顶部，因为那些追赶市场的人通常会在价格开始攀升时开始买入。

In the past two bear markets, peaks in the short-term holder supply have coincided with market tops, and five recent major tops in BTC, going back more than a decade, have coincided with peaks in STH supply, according to on-chain data firm Glassnode.

根据链上数据，在过去的两次熊市中，短期持有者供应的峰值与市场顶部同时发生，而 BTC 十多年前的五次主要顶部都与 STH 供应的峰值同时发生公司 Glassnode。

Bitcoin Short Term Holder Supply Index (blue) vs Price (orange) Past 5 Major Tops - Glassnode

比特币短期持有者供应指数（蓝色）与价格（橙色）过去 5 个主要顶部 - Glassnode

This metric is defined as the total supply last sold at a price within 15% of the current market price, and is used as a proxy for the supply that may react quickly to price changes.

该指标定义为最后以当前市场价格 15% 以内的价格出售的总供应量，并用作可能对价格变化做出快速反应的供应量的代理。

Interestingly, this metric has been trending down throughout the current bull market rally, which began in early 2023. This indicates that those buying bitcoin as the price climbs are now at a loss.

有趣的是，该指标在 2023 年初开始的当前牛市反弹中一直呈下降趋势。这表明随着价格上涨而购买比特币的人现在处于亏损状态。

Bitcoin Short Term Holder Supply Index (blue) vs Price (orange) 2024 Bull Market Rally - Glassnode

比特币短期持有者供应指数（蓝色）与价格（橙色）2024 年牛市反弹 - Glassnode

This recent decline in short-term holder supply is also supported by data from crypto analytics firm Santiment, which shows that realized losses have outpaced realized gains throughout the majority of the 2023 rally.

加密货币分析公司 Santiment 的数据也支持了近期短期持有者供应量的下降，该数据显示，在 2023 年反弹的大部分时间里，已实现的损失超过了已实现的收益。

Bitcoin Realized Loss (red) vs Realized Gain (green) 2023 - Santiment

2023 年比特币已实现损失（红色）与已实现收益（绿色） - Santiment

According to Santiment’s analysis, this metric tends to show a clear divergence at market tops, as realized gains typically begin outpacing realized losses.

根据 Santiment 的分析，这一指标往往会在市场顶部表现出明显的分歧，因为实现的收益通常开始超过实现的损失。

This divergence is largely due to retail investors selling their bitcoin at a profit as the market nears a top, while institutional investors tend to hold on to their BTC throughout the bull market.

这种差异主要是由于散户投资者在市场接近顶部时出售比特币获利，而机构投资者则倾向于在整个牛市中持有比特币。

Relative Strength Index (RSI) also Shows Lack of Euphoria

相对强弱指数（RSI）也显示缺乏欣快感

Another metric that tends to factor into market tops is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is a momentum indicator that measures the magnitude of recent gains and losses in an attempt to gauge the strength of a trend.

另一个往往会影响市场顶部的指标是相对强弱指数（RSI），它是一种动量指标，用于衡量近期收益和损失的幅度，以试图衡量趋势的强度。

This metric tends to reach extremes at market tops, as a high RSI reading indicates that an asset is overbought and due for a pullback.

该指标往往会在市场顶部达到极端，因为高 RSI 读数表明资产超买并需要回调。

Bitcoin Price vs Relative Strength Index (RSI) Past 5 Major Tops - Glassnode

比特币价格与相对强弱指数 (RSI) 过去 5 个主要顶部 - Glassnode

In the past five major bull market rallies, RSI has reached a high of 85 or above at four of the market peaks, according to Glassnode.

根据 Glassnode 的数据，在过去的五次主要牛市反弹中，RSI 在四次市场峰值中达到了 85 或以上的高点。

Currently, however, RSI has reached a high of just 68 during the 2023 bull market, which is well below the levels seen at past market tops.

然而，目前 RSI 在 2023 年牛市期间仅达到 68 的高点，远低于过去市场顶部的水平。

Bitcoin Price vs Relative Strength Index (RSI) 2024 Bull Market - Glassnode

比特币价格与相对强弱指数 (RSI) 2024 年牛市 - Glassnode

This lower RSI reading is further supported by data from crypto analytics firm Coinglass, which shows that bitcoin options skew is remaining

加密货币分析公司 Coinglass 的数据进一步支持了较低的 RSI 读数，该数据表明比特币期权偏差仍然存在