两个主要资本下降了所有暴露于以太坊（ETH）的资本，将其标记为Memecoin

算法贸易公司两位正式将其接触到以太坊（ETH），并指出ETH现在作为成人而不是可预测的资产进行交易。

Algorithmic trading firm Two Prime has completely exited its exposure to Ethereum (ETH), concluding that the asset is now better defined as a memecoin than a predictable asset at institutional levels.

算法贸易公司Two Prime已完全退出了其对以太坊（ETH）的暴露，得出的结论是，现在的资产被更好地定义为Memecoin，而不是机构一级可预测的资产。

In a note on Monday, CEO Alexander Blume said the firm will now exclusively manage and lend against Bitcoin (BTC). He added that the firm believes Bitcoin is the only digital asset that meets institutional standards for liquidity, predictability, and long-term investment viability.

首席执行官亚历山大·布鲁姆（Alexander Blume）在周一的一份报告中表示，该公司现在将专门管理和借给比特币（BTC）。他补充说，该公司认为比特币是唯一符合流动性，可预测性和长期投资可行性的机构标准的数字资产。

The decision follows over a year of performance divergence between BTC and ETH, during which Two Prime had issued over $1.5 billion in loans backed by both cryptocurrencies through its lending division. Despite that exposure, the firm concluded that Ethereum’s current behavior no longer aligns with risk-adjusted return expectations suitable for institutional portfolios.

该决定是在BTC和ETH之间的一年性能分歧之后，在此期间，两个Prime通过其通过其贷款部门发行了两种加密货币支持的15亿美元的贷款。尽管有这种曝光，该公司得出的结论是，以太坊的当前行为不再与适合机构投资组合的风险调整后的回报期望保持一致。

“ETH’s statistical trading behavior, value proposition, and community culture have failed beyond a point worth engaging,” Blume wrote.

布鲁姆写道：“ ETH的统计交易行为，价值主张和社区文化已经超出了值得参与的观点。”

De-correlation and elevated tail risk

去相关和尾巴风险升高

A quantitative analysis cited by Two Prime shows that Ethereum’s volatility and return structure have decoupled from Bitcoin since the November 2024 US election. While Bitcoin has shown classic mean-reversion characteristics, suggesting investor confidence and dip-buying activity, ETH has continued to trend lower with limited rebounds.

两个素数引用的定量分析表明，自2024年11月美国大选以来，以太坊的波动性和返回结构已与比特币解耦。尽管比特币显示出经典的均值逆转特征，这表明投资者的信心和畅销活动的活动，但ETH的篮板有限继续降低。

In scatterplots comparing 30-day returns with 30-day forward returns, ETH shows persistent negative momentum and lacks the symmetry observed in BTC data. Additionally, ETH’s volatility now resembles that of memecoins like Dogecoin (DOGE). A comparison of 30-day range volatility across BTC, ETH, and DOGE shows that ETH has moved away from its historically moderate volatility profile, displaying sudden multi-standard deviation moves inconsistent with institutional-grade assets.

在比较30天回报与30天正向回报的散点图中，ETH显示了持续的负动量，并且缺乏BTC数据中观察到的对称性。此外，ETH的波动现在类似于像Dogecoin（Doge）这样的模因的波动。 BTC，ETH和DOGE的30天范围波动率的比较表明，ETH已经摆脱了其历史中等的波动率，表现出突然的多标准偏差移动与机构级别的资产不一致。

Weak institutional demand

机构需求疲软

Two Prime also pointed to a widening gap in institutional demand. Bitcoin ETFs currently manage over $113 billion in assets, consuming 5.76% of the total BTC supply. In contrast, ETH ETFs account for only $4.71 billion in assets, covering 2.22% of the ETH supply. Despite Ethereum’s high market capitalization, much of its ETF inflows may be offset by short futures in basis trades, further diluting real demand.

两个主要的质量也表明机构需求的差距扩大。比特币ETF目前管理超过1,130亿美元的资产，占BTC总供应总额的5.76％。相比之下，ETH ETF仅占47.1亿美元的资产，占ETH供应的2.22％。尽管以太坊的市值很高，但其大部分ETF流入可能会被基本交易中的短期未来所抵消，从而进一步稀释了实际需求。

The disparity creates a reflexive environment where underperformance in ETH products leads asset managers to dedicate fewer resources to promotion, which in turn reduces visibility and investor allocation. According to Blume, ETH’s inability to maintain sustained institutional interest undermines its long-term viability as a core digital asset holding.

差异创造了反思性的环境，在ETH产品中，ETH产品的表现不佳会导致资产经理专用于更少的资源来促进，从而降低了可见性和投资者的分配。根据布鲁姆（Blume）的说法，ETH无法维持持续的机构利益破坏了其作为核心数字资产持有的长期生存能力。

Erosion of Ethereum’s value proposition

以太坊价值主张的侵蚀

Beyond trading behavior, Two Prime questioned Ethereum’s economic and technical model. The firm noted that newer alternatives, such as Solana (SOL), are increasingly challenging Ethereum’s attempt to serve as a general-purpose decentralized computing platform. These new infrastructures offer faster transaction throughput, lower costs, and a better user experience in latency-sensitive applications like gaming and payments.

除了贸易行为之外，两个主要的质疑以太坊的经济和技术模型。该公司指出，诸如Solana（Sol）之类的较新替代方案越来越有挑战性以太坊（Ethereum）作为通用分散计算平台的尝试。这些新的基础架构提供了更快的交易吞吐量，较低的成本以及对潜伏敏感应用程序（例如游戏和付款）的更好用户体验。

Moreover, stated demand for new blockchain use cases is outpacing the capabilities of Ethereum’s mainnet, leading to a shift in liquidity and attention toward emerging ecosystems.

此外，对新区块链用例的需求表示，超过以太坊主网的能力，从而导致流动性和对新兴生态系统的关注转移。

Discussing Ethereum’s rising gas fees, the firm said that while they are a concern for smaller traders, they may also indicate strong demand for Layer-2 networks. However, this creates a dilemma as these networks are effectively siphoning off the value that would otherwise accrue to Ethereum’s mainnet.

该公司讨论以太坊的汽油费用上升，尽管他们关注较小的交易者，但它们也可能表明对2层网络的需求强劲。但是，这会造成困境，因为这些网络有效地删除了原本会引起以太坊的主网的价值。

In essence, these Layer-2 chains are becoming independent blockchains, rendering Ethereum’s mainnet more like a settlement layer for cross-chain transfers. This can be seen as a form of internal competition that is eroding the value proposition of the original asset.

从本质上讲，这些2层链正在成为独立的区块链，使以太坊的主网更像是跨链传输的沉降层。这可以看作是侵蚀原始资产价值主张的内部竞争形式。

Finally, Two Prime’s analysis highlighted the implications of rapidly changing macroeconomic conditions, such as rising interest rates and inflation, which may not favor riskier assets like ETH in the current environment.

最后，两个Prime的分析强调了迅速变化的宏观经济状况的含义，例如利率和通货膨胀率上升，这可能不利于当前环境中的ETH这样的风险较高的资产。

Despite issuing over $1 billion in crypto loans in 2024 alone, Two Prime’s lending division will now focus exclusively on Bitcoin-backed credit facilities due to its superior risk-adjusted return potential. The firm will continue to monitor the crypto markets for any shifts that could warrant a return to lending against Ethereum.

尽管仅在2024年就发行了超过10亿美元的加密贷款，但由于具有卓越的风险调整后的回报潜力，两国Prime的贷款部门现在将仅专注于比特币支持的信贷设施。该公司将继续监视加密货币市场的任何变化，这些转变可能需要回报以太坊的贷款。