迈克尔·赛勒（Michael Saylor）概述了他极为看好的比特币（BTC）价格预测（MSTR 0.74％）

策略（MSTR 0.74％）创始人兼首席执行官迈克尔·赛勒（Michael Saylor）是比特币中最具声音的公牛之一

Strategy (MSTR 0.74%) founder and Chief Executive Officer Michael Saylor is one of the most vocal of the Bitcoin (BTC -0.63%) bulls out there, and in recent days, he made yet another series of incredibly optimistic predictions about the coin’s growth during the coming decades. Saylor says he expects the price of Bitcoin to rise at a 30% annual rate during the next 20 years, bringing its price into the ballpark of $13 million per coin.

策略（MSTR 0.74％）创始人兼首席执行官迈克尔·赛勒（Michael Saylor）是比特币（BTC -0.63％）公牛中最具发声的公牛之一，最近几天，他对未来几十年来对硬币的增长做出了又一系列令人难以置信的乐观预测。塞勒说，他预计比特币的价格将在未来20年内以每年30％的速度上涨，将其价格带入每枚硬币1300万美元的球场。

For reference, its price is currently about $104,000, so Saylor’s projection appears to be, at least on its face, extraordinarily ambitious, bordering on fantastical, or perhaps even what some would describe as delusional. Could he be right, or is this just another instance of another celebrity portfolio manager making lofty predictions in the course of “talking his book” to attract fresh capital for his most important investment?

作为参考，其价格目前约为104,000美元，因此，至少在面部，Saylor的投影似乎非常雄心勃勃，与梦幻般的接壤，甚至有些人形容为妄想。他可以是对的，还是这只是另一个名人投资组合经理在“说话”过程中做出崇高预测的另一个实例，以吸引他最重要的投资的新资本？

The math is actually pretty favorable here

数学实际上在这里非常有利

During the past 10 years, the price of Bitcoin rose by 43,820%. That puts its compound annual growth rate (CAGR) at 84%; during the past five years, its CAGR was 62%. Therefore, the back-of-the-napkin math for Saylor’s predicted growth rate looks to be on the conservative side relative to the coin’s historical performance.

在过去的10年中，比特币的价格上涨了43,820％。这使其复合年增长率（CAGR）为84％；在过去的五年中，其复合年增长率为62％。因此，相对于硬币的历史表现而言，Saylor预测的增长率的纳普金数学似乎是保守的。

Let’s emphasize that point: Saylor’s forecast for Bitcoin is based on a scenario in which it would consistently perform significantly worse than it has historically. But will this growth actually happen?

让我们强调这一点：Saylor对比特币的预测是基于一种情况，在这种情况下，它的表现始终如一地比历史上的情况要差得多。但是这种增长实际上会发生吗？

If it does, it certainly won’t occur such that the coin’s price marches upward each year in an orderly fashion. Multiple crashes of as much as 80% have already happened in Bitcoin’s history, and similar plunges will probably happen again. Notably, the asset has recovered from all of those plunges so far and gone on to reach higher highs afterward. It’s more probable than not that it will repeat those patterns.

如果确实如此，那肯定不会发生，以至于硬币的价格每年都以有序的方式上涨。在比特币的历史中，多次崩溃已经发生了多达80％的崩溃，类似的暴跌可能会再次发生。值得注意的是，到目前为止，资产已经从所有这些暴跌中恢复过来，此后继续达到更高的高点。它可能会重复这些模式。

Image source: Getty Images.

图像来源：盖蒂图像。

In the current era, there are also a handful of drivers for Bitcoin’s price that make it an attractive asset to hold even if it isn’t capable of growing by as much as Saylor is banking on. Governments, institutional investors, and major corporations are all evaluating whether to hold it on their balance sheets, or are already acquiring it. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are giving investors easier access to the asset. And that’s before even getting into the long-term drivers of its price performance, like its halving schedule and the scarcity that’s baked into the coin’s protocol.

在当前时代，还有少数比特币价格的司机，即使它不能像塞勒（Saylor）的依靠那样，它也使其成为有吸引力的资产。政府，机构投资者和主要公司都在评估是否将其持有资产负债表，还是已经收购了它。现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）使投资者更容易获得资产。这甚至是进入其价格绩效的长期驱动因素，例如其减半时间表和涉及硬币协议中的稀缺性。

So all of those trends will contribute upward pressure on the price of the coin during the next 10 to 20 years, as well as providing boosts in the shorter term as the commanders of large volumes of capital implement their Bitcoin strategies.

因此，所有这些趋势都将在未来10到20年内对硬币的价格造成上调，并在较短的任期内提供提升，因为大量资本的指挥官实施了比特币战略。

Even Saylor is advising you not to bet the farm

甚至塞勒（Saylor）也建议您不要打赌农场

All of this is to say that Saylor could well be right about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. There isn’t any obvious barrier that would prevent the asset from compounding at the pace his forecast calls for.

所有这些都是说，Saylor对比特币的长期轨迹很正确。没有明显的障碍可以阻止资产以他的预测呼吁加剧。

Nonetheless, he explicitly warns against quitting your day job in hopes that the coin’s price appreciation will carry the day for your personal finances. Nor is it advisable to sell your house to buy Bitcoin, nor to go into debt for the sake of accumulating it at a faster pace. The implications of a bright future for Bitcoin are no excuse to sacrifice the fundamentals of personal finance or your portfolio’s diversification.

尽管如此，他明确警告不要辞掉您的日常工作，希望硬币的价格赞赏将为您的个人理财带来一天。也不建议出售您的房子购买比特币，也不建议以更快的速度积累债务。光明的未来对比特币的含义并不是牺牲个人理财或您的投资组合多样化的基本面的借口。

However, if Saylor’s bullishness catches your imagination (as perhaps it should) what might make sense is to bump up the size of the allocation to Bitcoin in your portfolio. For conservative investors who might need their funds within the next five years, an allocation of 1% is reasonable, but for those with longer time frames, 5% or more could be a good idea. Just remember, you will only get the benefit of its price compounding over time if you keep your coins rather than sell them.

但是，如果Saylor的看涨抓住了您的想象力（也许应该如此），那可能是有意义的，那就是将投资组合中对比特币的分配规模增加。对于可能在未来五年内需要资金的保守投资者来说，分配1％是合理的，但是对于那些时间较长的人来说，5％或更多的时间可能是一个好主意。请记住，如果您保留硬币而不是出售它们，您只会随着时间的推移而获得其价格加重的好处。