Memecoin、市场操纵等等

本周我看到了模因币力量的另一个迹象。我听了几个播客，其中有许多严肃的交易员和建设者以兴奋的语气谈论这个或那个模因币。

This week I saw yet another sign of the power of memecoins. I listened to several podcasts with many serious traders and builders talk in excited tones about this or that memecoin. It appears memecoins have the ability to make children out of even the most serious of us. Add that to the growing list of valuable memecoin attributes. In Token Narratives, among other things, we speak about two memecoins in the zeitgeist at the moment – FARTCOIN and KWIF. Hilarious and fascinating.

本周我看到了模因币力量的另一个迹象。我听了几个播客，其中有许多严肃的交易员和建设者以兴奋的语气谈论这个或那个模因币。看来模因币有能力让我们这些最严肃的人生出孩子。将其添加到不断增长的有价值的模因币属性列表中。在 Token Narratives 中，除其他外，我们讨论了当前时代精神的两种模因币——FARTCOIN 和 KWIF。搞笑又迷人。

There was a decent amount of Polymarket pushback this week, most likely due to the prediction market showing Trump far ahead compared to polls. A group of skeptics, many from the mainstream media, claim there is market manipulation – the odds are being skewed by deep-pockets with agendas. My response: tell me you don’t understand how an open market works without telling me you don’t understand. Anyone is free to take the other side of those bets. If you think people are using millions of dollars trying to influence an outcome instead of making predictions, you should take the other side!

本周，Polymarket 出现了相当大的阻力，很可能是因为预测市场显示特朗普与民意调查相比遥遥领先。一群怀疑论者（其中许多来自主流媒体）声称存在市场操纵——财力雄厚、有议程的人正在扭曲可能性。我的回答：告诉我你不明白公开市场是如何运作的，而不是告诉我你不明白。任何人都可以自由地接受这些赌注的另一面。如果您认为人们正在花费数百万美元试图影响结果而不是做出预测，那么您应该站在另一边！

The second criticism of Polymarket is more legitimate. Polymarket proudly publishes its trading volume while obscuring open interest (OI). It presumably does so to give the perception of robust market depth, while the OI would indicate a relatively shallower market. I used, ‘would,’ because Polymarket doesn’t even reveal OI, another indicator that they are purposefully playing up one metric and hiding the other, more important one. Still, Polymarket has by far the most liquid U.S. presidential election betting market, but the proudly advertised 2 billion in volume (assuming all of that volume is legit, a stretch in crypto) in no way equates to market depth, which is likely more than an order of magnitude lower at around 100 to 200 million USD.

对 Polymarket 的第二个批评更为合理。 Polymarket 自豪地公布其交易量，同时隐藏未平仓合约 (OI)。这样做大概是为了给人一种市场深度强劲的感觉，而 OI 则表明市场相对较浅。我用了“愿意”，因为 Polymarket 甚至没有透露 OI，这是他们故意夸大一个指标并隐藏另一个更重要的指标的另一个指标。尽管如此，Polymarket 拥有迄今为止最具流动性的美国总统选举博彩市场，但其自豪地宣称的 20 亿交易量（假设所有交易量都是合法的，这是加密货币的延伸）绝不等同于市场深度，市场深度可能超过低一个数量级，约为 100 至 2 亿美元。

There were two papers released this week from central bank-adjacent people criticizing Bitcoin. The first by ECB lifers claimed Bitcoin was a wealth redistribution mechanism that has exacerbated wealth inequality. The second, by the U.S. Minneapolis Fed, argues that prohibiting bitcoin or imposing specific taxes could help governments implement permanent primary deficits effectively. Which one is crazier: the first, seeming to argue against capitalism, or the second, implicitly advocating for the government to forever get deeper into debt?

本周，央行相关人士发布了两篇批评比特币的论文。欧洲央行终身受益人的第一个主张是，比特币是一种财富再分配机制，加剧了财富不平等。第二个由美国明尼阿波利斯联储提出，认为禁止比特币或征收特定税可以帮助政府有效地实施永久性基本赤字。哪个更疯狂：第一个似乎反对资本主义，还是第二个含蓄地主张政府永远陷入更深的债务？

Speaking of crazy, Michael Saylor had quite a week. Early in the week he sparked a controversy over comments made during an interview in which he suggested custodial bitcoin was safer from government seizure and insulted those who disagreed as “paranoid crypto anarchists.” The backlash was universal, even getting happy-go-lucky Vitalik to call Saylor’s comments “batshit insane.” In an Op-Ed, I disagreed with Vitalik, pointing out that Saylor’s comments have been consistently self-serving for years, and this latest was no different.

说到疯狂，迈克尔·塞勒度过了相当长的一周。本周早些时候，他在一次采访中发表的言论引发了一场争议，他在采访中表示托管比特币更安全，不会被政府扣押，并侮辱那些持不同意见的人是“偏执的加密无政府主义者”。强烈反对是普遍的，甚至让无忧无虑的维塔利克称塞勒的言论“简直是疯了”。在一篇专栏文章中，我不同意维塔利克的观点，指出塞勒的评论多年来一直是自私的，最新的也不例外。

Finally, some bullish news that probably didn’t get enough attention. Payments company Stripe has acquired stablecoin platform Bridge for $1.1 billion, marking the largest acquisition in the crypto industry to date. Aside from the obvious, this deal is significant because, as a Silicon Valley darling, Stripe’s actions legitimize crypto to all those Silicon Valley funds and companies who are still on the fence about it.

最后，一些可能没有引起足够关注的乐观消息。支付公司 Stripe 以 11 亿美元收购了稳定币平台 Bridge，这是迄今为止加密行业最大的一笔收购。除了显而易见的事实之外，这笔交易意义重大，因为作为硅谷的宠儿，Stripe 的行动使加密货币对所有仍持观望态度的硅谷基金和公司合法化。