一个宏大风 - 和比特币的[BTC]短期队列很快做出反应

5月11日，由于现货价格徘徊在104,139美元左右，因此短期同伙将11,549 BTC卸载。

One macro tailwind – and Bitcoin's [BTC] short-term cohort was quick to react.

一个宏大的尾风 - 比特币的[BTC]短期队列很快做出了反应。

On the 11th of May, 11,549 BTC was offloaded by the short-term cohort as spot price hovered around $104,139. That's a hefty $1.20 billion sell-off.

5月11日，由于现货价格徘徊在104,139美元左右，因此短期同伙将11,549 BTC卸载。那是一笔100亿美元的抛售。

The result? A textbook flush. BTC nuked to $100,691 in a high-velocity move, notching its steepest intraday drawdown in over a week. More than $500 million in liquidations followed, as cascading stop-outs lit up the order books.

结果？一本教科书冲洗。 BTC以高速行动的价格将$ 100,691纳入了100,691美元，在一周多的时间内就陷入了最陡峭的盘盘缩水量。随着级联停止的订单账簿，级联的停车量超过5亿美元的清算。

And while majors wobbled, the pain wasn't evenly distributed. Dogecoin [DOGE] and Cardano [ADA] were the hardest hit.

当大满贯摇摆时，疼痛并没有平均分发。 Dogecoin [Doge]和Cardano [Ada]是最难的打击。

Bitcoin STHs take defensive action

比特币STH采取防御行动

As AMBCrypto flagged, a repeat of the mid-Q1-style STH capitulation isn't entirely off the table – unless BTC can muscle through the $106k mark, which remains a key psychological supply barrier.

正如Ambcrypto的标记一样，Q1中Mid-Q1风格的STH投降的重复并不完全不在桌面上 - 除非BTC可以通过$ 106K Mark的肌肉进行肌肉，这仍然是一个关键的心理供应障碍。

The latest sell-off has only turned up the heat on this narrative.

最新的抛售仅在这种叙述上引起了热烈的影响。

The market's vibe? It's back in "wait-and-see mode", with eyes glued to April's CPI (Consumer Price Index) print. Hence, the data drop could be the deciding factor.

市场的氛围？它又回到了“等待观看模式”，眼睛粘在四月的CPI（消费者价格指数）印刷品上。因此，数据下降可能是决定因素。

However, the real twist comes from the rate cut narrative. While traders are eyeing potential cuts, history tells a different story: Even during peak tariff chaos, the Federal Reserve held a hawkish stance.

但是，真正的转折来自削减叙述。尽管交易者正在关注潜在的削减，但历史讲述了一个不同的故事：即使在高峰关税混乱期间，美联储也保持了鹰派的立场。

And now, with the U.S. and China striking a "breakthrough" deal, the odds of a major pivot to dovish policy are looking slimmer by the day.

而现在，随着美国和中国达成“突破性”协议，一日游行政策的主要枢纽的几率看上去很苗条。

That said, should Bitcoin fail to break through the $106k supply wall, STHs may adopt a defensive posture, triggering a liquidation cascade.

也就是说，如果比特币无法突破106K的供应墙，STH可能会采取防御性姿势，从而引发清算级联。

The recent $500 million in forced exits could be the initial spark in a larger market sell-off.

最近的5亿美元强迫出口可能是更大的市场抛售中的最初火花。

Altcoins' safe haven appeal under fire

Altcoins在大火中的避风港上诉

TOTAL3 (the crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH) dropped by 2.32%, signaling that altcoins absorbed more pain than Bitcoin, which logged a comparatively smaller 1.05% drawdown.

Total3（不包括BTC和ETH的加密市值）下降了2.32％，表明Altcoins吸收的疼痛比比特币更大，比特币记录了相对较小的1.05％的缩水。

Among large-caps, DOGE led the downside, plunging nearly 10% to $0.22, while ADA closely trailed, falling 6.9% to $0.79.

在大型驾驶室中，总督领导下跌，下跌近10％至$ 0.22，而ADA紧密落后，下降了6.9％，至0.79美元。

Consequently, significant liquidations occurred, with DOGE alone seeing a $18 million squeeze in long positions, far surpassing ADA's more modest $4.7 million in forced exits.

因此，发生了重大的清算，仅门多格就看到了1800万美元的挤压，远远超过了艾达（Ada）的强迫出口470万美元。

Historically, STHs sought refuge in altcoins as a hedge during periods of Bitcoin overextension or when BTC neared a local top.

从历史上看，在比特币过度扩张期间或BTC靠近当地上衣时，STH在Altcoins中寻求避难所作为对冲。

However, that dynamic no longer holds. Altcoins now move in lockstep with Bitcoin, losing their role as volatility buffers.

但是，这种动态不再存在。现在，AltCoins用比特币锁定了锁，失去了其作为波动性缓冲区的角色。

Looking ahead, if Bitcoin resumes its downtrend amid rising macro uncertainty, high-cap alts won't escape the fallout.

展望未来，如果比特币在宏观不确定性上升的情况下恢复了下降，那么高帽子的Alts将不会逃脱后果。

Instead, they'll likely accelerate the drawdown, setting the stage for a "market-wide" risk-off cascade.

取而代之的是，他们可能会加速下降，为“整个市场”的风险级联奠定基础。