尽管占地面积越来越大，策略的比特币（BTC）购买似乎对价格影响不大

尽管作为比特币（BTC）的主要公司持有人的足迹越来越大，但战略对加密货币的大规模购买似乎对其价格的影响很小。

Despite its growing footprint as a major corporate holder of bitcoin (BTC), Strategy’s large-scale purchases of the cryptocurrency appear to have little, if any, influence on its price, according to a research paper by TD Cowen.

根据TD Cowen的一份研究论文，尽管作为比特币（BTC）的主要公司持有人的占地面积越来越大，但战略对加密货币的大规模购买似乎对价格的影响很小，对其价格的影响很小。

The findings published Monday challenge a popular theory among skeptics — that Strategy’s aggressive buying spree is helping prop up bitcoin’s value, and that without its continued demand, prices would falter. But based on the data, that argument doesn’t hold much weight, the analysts said.

周一发布的调查结果挑战了怀疑论者中的一种流行理论 - 该战略的积极购买狂潮正在帮助提高比特币的价值，而如果没有其持续的需求，价格就会摇摇欲坠。分析师说，基于数据，该论点并不能承受太多的权重。

A Big Buyer, But a Small Slice of the Market

一个大买家，但市场上的一小部分

Strategy recently issued another 1.8 million shares under its at-the-market (ATM) offering, raising an additional $842 million in net proceeds. The funds were used to purchase 6,556 bitcoins, boosting the firm’s bitcoin yield this quarter by 1% to 12.1%. However, when measured against the broader bitcoin market, these purchases are just a drop in the bucket.

策略最近在其市场上（ATM）产品下又发行了180万股股票，并筹集了8.42亿美元的净收益。这些资金用于购买6,556个比特币，使公司本季度的比特币收益率提高了1％至12.1％。但是，当针对更广泛的比特币市场进行衡量时，这些购买只是桶中的下降。

According to the TD Cowen analysis, Strategy’s bitcoin buys have typically accounted for just 3.3% of weekly trading volume on average. Over the past 27 weeks, the company’s total activity amounted to 8.4% of volume — but this figure was skewed by a handful of weeks where its buying briefly surged past 20%. In eight of those weeks, Strategy didn’t buy any bitcoin at all.

根据TD Cowen分析，策略的比特币购买通常仅占平均每周交易量的3.3％。在过去的27周中，该公司的总活动占数量的8.4％，但是这个数字偏向了几周，在几周内，其购买短暂飙升了20％。在那几周的八个星期内，策略根本没有购买任何比特币。

“Our conclusion is that in most periods, it doesn't appear plausible that Strategy's purchases could have had a sustained, material impact on the price of bitcoin,” TD Cowen analysts wrote.

TD Cowen分析师写道：“我们的结论是，在大多数时期，策略的购买可能对比特币的价格产生持续的重大影响似乎是不合理的。”

Correlation? Not Much.

相关性？不多。

The analysis further tested the relationship between Strategy’s bitcoin purchases and market prices — and found it to be statistically weak. The correlation coefficient between Strategy’s weekly bitcoin buy volume and BTC price at week’s end came in at just 25%. When comparing purchases to weekly price changes, the correlation rose only slightly to 28%.

该分析进一步测试了策略的比特币购买与市场价格之间的关系，并发现它在统计上很弱。策略每周的比特币购买量与周末BTC价格之间的相关系数仅为25％。当将购买与每周价格变化进行比较时，相关性仅略有至28％。

Given a correlation coefficient close to 0 suggests no or weak correlation, these results indicate little to no link between Strategy’s actions and short-term market movements — let alone any kind of sustained price influence, the paper said.

该论文说，鉴于相关系数接近0表示没有或弱相关性，这些结果表明策略的行动与短期市场变动之间几乎没有联系，更不用说任何持续的价格影响了。

What About Outpacing Miners?

超过矿工呢？

Another common critique is that Strategy frequently purchases more bitcoin than is mined in a given period, implying it’s creating upward price pressure. While technically true, the analysis shows this argument misunderstands how the bitcoin market works.

另一个常见的批评是，策略经常购买比给定时期内开采的比特币更多的比特币，这意味着它正在造成向上的价格压力。尽管从技术上讲是正确的，但分析表明了这一论点误解了比特币市场的运作方式。

Over the past six months, secondary bitcoin trading has outpaced mining volume by nearly 20 times. Even removing Strategy’s purchases from the equation, secondary market activity still exceeds new supply by 17 times. In that environment, miners and buyers alike are price takers — not setters.

在过去的六个月中，次级比特币交易的开采量超过了近20倍。即使从等式中删除策略的购买，二级市场活动仍然超过17倍的新供应。在那种环境中，矿工和买家都是价格收获者，而不是固定者。

“As we have seen, its purchases represent a very small percentage of total bitcoin trading volume; thus the idea that it is somehow having a profound or even notable impact on bitcoin price action seems incongruous, to us,” TD Cowen said.

TD Cowen说：“正如我们已经看到的那样，它的购买占比特币交易量的很小比例；因此，这对我们来说，这是对比特币价格行动产生深远甚至显着影响的想法，这对我们来说似乎是不协调的。”

Building Value, Not Hype

建筑价值，而不是炒作

While Strategy’s influence on the bitcoin market may be overstated, the value it’s generated for shareholders is harder to ignore.

尽管战略对比特币市场的影响可能被夸大了，但它对股东产生的价值很难忽略。

Last week’s purchases created an estimated incremental gain of 5,281 bitcoins, bringing quarter-to-date gains to nearly $600 million. Since the beginning of 2023, Strategy has increased its bitcoin holdings by 306%, while only expanding its fully diluted share count by 94% — a strong showing for a company using bitcoin as a strategic treasury asset.

上周的购买创造了估计的增量增益为5,281个比特币，使季度至6亿美元的收益达到了近6亿美元。自2023年初以来，策略将其比特币持有量增加了306％，而仅将其完全稀释的份额计数扩大了94％，这是一家使用比特币作为战略财政资产的公司。

With $1.53 billion in remaining ATM capacity and board approval for a larger share authorization, Strategy is well-positioned to continue this strategy — without disrupting the very market it’s betting on.

凭借15.3亿美元的剩余ATM容量和董事会批准以获得更大的股份授权，战略旨在继续进行此策略，而不会破坏其赌注的市场。

“We expect Strategy will continue to drive positive BTC Yield for the foreseeable future. While BTC Yield will likely fall to the extent bitcoin continues to rise in price, the dollar value of incremental gains from Strategy's Treasury Operations could remain highly advantageous to shareholders,” the analysts wrote.

分析师写道：“在可预见的未来，战略将继续提高BTC的积极收益率。尽管BTC的收益率可能会降至比特币的价格上涨程度，但策略的国库业务的增量收益的美元价值可能对股东仍然有利，”分析师写道。