比特币在第四次减半后一年表现出令人困惑的轨迹

比特币的2024年减半：尽管有历史高潮，但年增长率上限为49％，远离过去的四倍数字。

One year after its fourth halving, bitcoin shows a puzzling trajectory. Though the crypto has indeed risen since April 2024 — nearly reaching $109,000 in January — its growth remains pale compared to previous cycles. A paradox? Despite all-time highs, the annual growth rate caps at 49%, far from the quadruple digits of yesteryear. How to explain this historic slowdown, while ETFs and the programmed bitcoin shortage were supposed to propel the market?

比特币在第四次减半后一年表现出令人困惑的轨迹。尽管自2024年4月以来，加密货币的确已经上升了（一月份几乎达到109,000美元），与以前的周期相比，其增长仍然苍白。悖论？尽管有历史高潮，但年增长率上限为49％，远离过去的四倍数字。如何解释这种历史性放缓，而ETF和编程的比特币短缺应该推动市场？

Bitcoin after the halving: a mixed review

比特币减半：混合评论

In 2012, bitcoin leapt 8,000% one year after its first halving. In 2016, +277%, then +762% in 2020. This time, the crypto king struggles to exceed 50%. Yet, the fundamentals seemed in place: reduction of mining rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block, approval of spot ETFs… But the macroeconomic context played spoilsport.

2012年，比特币首次减半一年后，比特币跃升了8,000％。在2016年， +277％，然后在2020年 +762％。这次，加密货币国王努力超过50％。然而，基本面似乎已经到位：每块6.25降低到3.125 BTC，批准现货ETF…，但是宏观经济的背景下来有所作为。

“Interest rates have never been this high”, emphasizes Dessislava Aubert, analyst at Kaiko. A hostile environment for risky assets, bitcoin leading the pack.

Kaiko分析师Dessislava Aubert强调说：“利率从未如此高。”带有风险资产的敌对环境，比特币领先。

Donald Trump’s 2024 election injected an unprecedented dose of volatility. While his inauguration propelled bitcoin to $109,000, fears related to his trade war and erratic economic policies subsequently eroded the gains.

唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的2024年大选注入了前所未有的波动剂量。尽管他的就职典礼将比特币推向了109,000美元，但与他的贸易战争和不稳定的经济政策有关的恐惧随后侵蚀了收益。

Investors, accustomed to monetary stability post-2008, now navigate troubled waters. Result: bitcoin oscillates between fleeting euphoria and chronic caution.

投资者习惯了2008年以后的货币稳定性，现在正在遇到困难的水域。结果：比特币在短暂的欣快感和慢性谨慎之间振荡。

Miners themselves suffer a double penalty. The drop in rewards comes with record mining difficulty — synonymous with increased operational costs. “Farms have to sell more BTC to survive”, explains Curtis Harris from Compass Mining. A vicious circle: these massive sales curb the coin’s valuation while competition intensifies for ever slimmer margins.

矿工本身受到双重罚款。奖励的下降伴随着创纪录的采矿难度 - 与增加运营成本的代名词一样。 “农场必须出售更多的BTC才能生存”，指南针采矿中解释说。一个恶性循环：这些庞大的销售遏制了硬币的估值，而竞争则增强了较小的利润。

Mining in peril: the other side of the coin

危险开采：硬币的另一侧

Faced with this hostile landscape, historical mining players are reinventing themselves. Optimizing energy costs, resorting to more efficient technologies… Survival requires drastic rationalization.

面对这种敌对的景观，历史矿业球员正在重塑自己。优化能源成本，诉诸于更有效的技术……生存需要严重的合理化。

“Those who hoped for a million-dollar bitcoin live in illusion”, asserts Shanon Squires, mining director at Compass Mining. The speculative expectation bubble has burst, giving way to harsh realism.

Compass Mining的采矿总监Shanon Squires断言：“那些希望拥有一百万美元的比特币生活在幻想中的人。”投机性的期望泡沫破裂了，让位于苛刻的现实主义。

The arrival of spot ETFs in January 2024 was supposed to attract institutional capital, offsetting retail slowdown. But the effect was mixed. While these products have drawn billions, their impact on price is limited by forced sales from miners and fund outflows during geopolitical crises.

现场ETF在2024年1月的到来应该吸引机构资本，从而抵消了零售放缓。但是效果混合在一起。尽管这些产品吸引了数十亿美元，但它们对价格的影响受到矿工的强迫销售和地缘政治危机期间的资金流出的限制。

ETFs are no longer a lifeline, but one element among others in a fragmented ecosystem.

ETF不再是生命线，而是一个碎片生态系统中的一个元素。

Bitcoin matures, as do its cycles. The halving is no longer a simple bubble-triggering algorithm but an event drowned in a sea of external variables. Key interest rates, monetary policies, geopolitical tensions… Cryptocurrency evolves in a world where every gain must be earned. It remains to be seen whether this new maturity heralds stabilization… or slow erosion.

比特币和周期一样成熟。减半不再是一种简单的气泡触发算法，而是淹没在外部变量海洋中的事件。关键利率，货币政策，地缘政治紧张局势……加密货币在一个必须赚取的收益的世界中演变。这种新的成熟度是否预示着稳定……还是缓慢的侵蚀，还有待观察。

Bitcoin is undergoing a painful metamorphosis. Its 2024 halving revealed its vulnerability to external shocks but also its resilience. Between miners seeking profitability and investors on constant alert, BTC now embodies a fragile balance between financial innovation and economic reality. A lesson for crypto purists: even decentralized, bitcoin does not live outside the world.

比特币正在经历痛苦的​​变形。它的2024年减半揭示了其易受外部冲击的脆弱性，也揭示了其韧性。在寻求盈利能力的矿工和持续戒备的投资者之间，BTC现在体现了金融创新与经济现实之间的脆弱平衡。加密纯粹主义者的一堂课：即使是分散的比特币也不生活在世界以外。

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Fascinated by Bitcoin since 2017, Evariste has continuously researched the subject. While his initial interest was in trading, he now actively seeks to understand all advances centered on cryptocurrencies. As an editor, he strives to consistently deliver high-quality work that reflects the state of the sector as a whole.

自2017年以来，Evariste着迷于比特币，不断研究该主题。尽管他最初的兴趣是交易，但他现在积极寻求了解以加密货币为中心的所有进步。作为一名编辑，他努力始终如一地提供反映整个行业状态的高质量工作。