比特幣在第四次減半後一年表現出令人困惑的軌跡

比特幣的2024年減半：儘管有歷史高潮，但年增長率上限為49％，遠離過去的四倍數字。

One year after its fourth halving, bitcoin shows a puzzling trajectory. Though the crypto has indeed risen since April 2024 — nearly reaching $109,000 in January — its growth remains pale compared to previous cycles. A paradox? Despite all-time highs, the annual growth rate caps at 49%, far from the quadruple digits of yesteryear. How to explain this historic slowdown, while ETFs and the programmed bitcoin shortage were supposed to propel the market?

比特幣在第四次減半後一年表現出令人困惑的軌跡。儘管自2024年4月以來，加密貨幣的確已經上升了（一月份幾乎達到109,000美元），與以前的周期相比，其增長仍然蒼白。悖論？儘管有歷史高潮，但年增長率上限為49％，遠離過去的四倍數字。如何解釋這種歷史性放緩，而ETF和編程的比特幣短缺應該推動市場？

Bitcoin after the halving: a mixed review

比特幣減半：混合評論

In 2012, bitcoin leapt 8,000% one year after its first halving. In 2016, +277%, then +762% in 2020. This time, the crypto king struggles to exceed 50%. Yet, the fundamentals seemed in place: reduction of mining rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block, approval of spot ETFs… But the macroeconomic context played spoilsport.

2012年，比特幣首次減半一年後，比特幣躍升了8,000％。在2016年， +277％，然後在2020年 +762％。這次，加密貨幣國王努力超過50％。然而，基本面似乎已經到位：每塊6.25降低到3.125 BTC，批准現貨ETF…，但是宏觀經濟的背景下來有所作為。

“Interest rates have never been this high”, emphasizes Dessislava Aubert, analyst at Kaiko. A hostile environment for risky assets, bitcoin leading the pack.

Kaiko分析師Dessislava Aubert強調說：“利率從未如此高。”帶有風險資產的敵對環境，比特幣領先。

Donald Trump’s 2024 election injected an unprecedented dose of volatility. While his inauguration propelled bitcoin to $109,000, fears related to his trade war and erratic economic policies subsequently eroded the gains.

唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的2024年大選注入了前所未有的波動劑量。儘管他的就職典禮將比特幣推向了109,000美元，但與他的貿易戰爭和不穩定的經濟政策有關的恐懼隨後侵蝕了收益。

Investors, accustomed to monetary stability post-2008, now navigate troubled waters. Result: bitcoin oscillates between fleeting euphoria and chronic caution.

投資者習慣了2008年以後的貨幣穩定性，現在正在遇到困難的水域。結果：比特幣在短暫的欣快感和慢性謹慎之間振盪。

Miners themselves suffer a double penalty. The drop in rewards comes with record mining difficulty — synonymous with increased operational costs. “Farms have to sell more BTC to survive”, explains Curtis Harris from Compass Mining. A vicious circle: these massive sales curb the coin’s valuation while competition intensifies for ever slimmer margins.

礦工本身受到雙重罰款。獎勵的下降伴隨著創紀錄的採礦難度 - 與增加運營成本的代名詞一樣。 “農場必須出售更多的BTC才能生存”，指南針採礦中解釋說。一個惡性循環：這些龐大的銷售遏制了硬幣的估值，而競爭則增強了較小的利潤。

Mining in peril: the other side of the coin

危險開採：硬幣的另一側

Faced with this hostile landscape, historical mining players are reinventing themselves. Optimizing energy costs, resorting to more efficient technologies… Survival requires drastic rationalization.

面對這種敵對的景觀，歷史礦業球員正在重塑自己。優化能源成本，訴諸於更有效的技術……生存需要嚴重的合理化。

“Those who hoped for a million-dollar bitcoin live in illusion”, asserts Shanon Squires, mining director at Compass Mining. The speculative expectation bubble has burst, giving way to harsh realism.

Compass Mining的採礦總監Shanon Squires斷言：“那些希望擁有一百萬美元的比特幣生活在幻想中的人。”投機性的期望泡沫破裂了，讓位於苛刻的現實主義。

The arrival of spot ETFs in January 2024 was supposed to attract institutional capital, offsetting retail slowdown. But the effect was mixed. While these products have drawn billions, their impact on price is limited by forced sales from miners and fund outflows during geopolitical crises.

現場ETF在2024年1月的到來應該吸引機構資本，從而抵消了零售放緩。但是效果混合在一起。儘管這些產品吸引了數十億美元，但它們對價格的影響受到礦工的強迫銷售和地緣政治危機期間的資金流出的限制。

ETFs are no longer a lifeline, but one element among others in a fragmented ecosystem.

ETF不再是生命線，而是一個碎片生態系統中的一個元素。

Bitcoin matures, as do its cycles. The halving is no longer a simple bubble-triggering algorithm but an event drowned in a sea of external variables. Key interest rates, monetary policies, geopolitical tensions… Cryptocurrency evolves in a world where every gain must be earned. It remains to be seen whether this new maturity heralds stabilization… or slow erosion.

比特幣和周期一樣成熟。減半不再是一種簡單的氣泡觸發算法，而是淹沒在外部變量海洋中的事件。關鍵利率，貨幣政策，地緣政治緊張局勢……加密貨幣在一個必須賺取的收益的世界中演變。這種新的成熟度是否預示著穩定……還是緩慢的侵蝕，還有待觀察。

Bitcoin is undergoing a painful metamorphosis. Its 2024 halving revealed its vulnerability to external shocks but also its resilience. Between miners seeking profitability and investors on constant alert, BTC now embodies a fragile balance between financial innovation and economic reality. A lesson for crypto purists: even decentralized, bitcoin does not live outside the world.

比特幣正在經歷痛苦的​​變形。它的2024年減半揭示了其易受外部衝擊的脆弱性，也揭示了其韌性。在尋求盈利能力的礦工和持續戒備的投資者之間，BTC現在體現了金融創新與經濟現實之間的脆弱平衡。加密純粹主義者的一堂課：即使是分散的比特幣也不生活在世界以外。

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Fascinated by Bitcoin since 2017, Evariste has continuously researched the subject. While his initial interest was in trading, he now actively seeks to understand all advances centered on cryptocurrencies. As an editor, he strives to consistently deliver high-quality work that reflects the state of the sector as a whole.

自2017年以來，Evariste著迷於比特幣，不斷研究該主題。儘管他最初的興趣是交易，但他現在積極尋求了解以加密貨幣為中心的所有進步。作為一名編輯，他努力始終如一地提供反映整個行業狀態的高質量工作。