欧元，不断贬值的国际货币

如果说美元最近一直在苦苦挣扎，那么欧元的表现也好不了多少。欧洲央行行长撰写的报告的介绍以警告结尾。

The Euro, a declining international currency. If the dollar has been struggling lately, the euro is not faring much better. The introduction of the report written by the ECB president ends with a cautionary note.

欧元，一种正在贬值的国际货币。如果说美元最近一直在苦苦挣扎，那么欧元的表现也好不了多少。欧洲央行行长撰写的报告的介绍以警告结尾。

“Some countries are increasingly seeking to bypass the main invoicing currencies for international trade and traditional cross-border payment systems (SWIFT). The accumulation of gold as a reserve asset has continued, particularly in countries closely linked to Russia, as well as in non-standard reserve currencies. Overall, this suggests that the international currency status of the euro should not be taken for granted.”

“一些国家越来越多地寻求绕过国际贸易和传统跨境支付系统（SWIFT）的主要计价货币。黄金作为储备资产的积累仍在继续，特别是在与俄罗斯关系密切的国家，以及非标准储备货币的积累。总体而言，这表明欧元的国际货币地位不应被视为理所当然。”

According to the report, the single currency accounts for 20% of global foreign exchange reserves, down 0.5% year-over-year. Given that global reserves amount to $11,450 billion.

报告显示，单一货币占全球外汇储备的20%，同比下降0.5%。鉴于全球储备达 114,500 亿美元。

Let us recall in passing that Europe has frozen €250 billion owned by Russia, without which the euro’s share drops to 17.7%…

让我们顺便回顾一下，欧洲已经冻结了俄罗斯拥有的 2500 亿欧元，否则欧元的份额将下降至 17.7%……

The dollar’s share is 58.4%. However, this figure is misleading as it is inflated by the dollar appreciation. The IMF recently provided a figure of 55% at constant exchange rates.

美元的份额为58.4%。然而，这个数字具有误导性，因为它因美元升值而被夸大。国际货币基金组织最近提供了按固定汇率计算的 55% 的数字。

The yen’s share reaches 5.7%, while the Chinese yuan (2.3%) remains tiny compared to the economic weight of the Asian giant.

日元的份额达到 5.7%，而人民币（2.3%）与这个亚洲巨人的经济实力相比仍然很小。

The ECB warns that geopolitical risk plays an increasingly important role in the management of foreign exchange reserves. In this regard, it highlights a recent HSBC survey of 91 central banks representing 65% of global reserves. It shows that “geopolitical escalation” is the most important factor affecting reserves composition.

欧洲央行警告称，地缘政治风险在外汇储备管理中发挥着越来越重要的作用。在这方面，它强调了汇丰银行最近对 91 家央行进行的一项调查，这些央行占全球储备的 65%。表明“地缘政治升级”是影响储量构成的最重要因素。

And gold?

还有黄金？

The ECB also highlights in its report a survey published by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in June 2023, indicating that nearly 40% of central banks plan to increase their yuan reserves over the next ten years.

欧洲央行还在报告中强调了官方货币和金融机构论坛2023年6月发布的一项调查，显示近40%的央行计划在未来十年增加人民币储备。

However, it is gold that currently has the wind in its sails. Purchases are at an all-time high. The yellow metal now represents nearly 20% of total foreign exchange reserves. Central banks bought more than 1,000 tons of gold in 2023.

然而，目前正顺风顺水的是黄金。购买量创历史新高。目前，这种黄色金属占外汇储备总额的近20%。 2023年各国央行购买了超过1000吨黄金。

China was the largest buyer (225 tons). The Sino-Russian tango strategy is clearly to restore the Gold Standard, or at least solidify their currencies to do without the greenback.

中国是最大的买家（225吨）。中俄探戈战略显然是要恢复金本位，或者至少巩固两国货币以摆脱美元的束缚。

For example, over 80% of bilateral trade between Iran and Russia was settled in national currency, according to the Russian Deputy Prime Minister. According to Russian sources, 20 countries have joined its Financial Messaging System (SPFS), the local alternative to the SWIFT network developed by the Russian Central Bank.

例如，俄罗斯副总理表示，伊朗和俄罗斯之间超过80%的双边贸易以本国货币结算。据俄罗斯消息人士称，已有 20 个国家加入了其金融报文系统 (SPFS)，这是俄罗斯中央银行开发的 SWIFT 网络的本地替代方案。

The yuan, however, appears to be the first choice. The ECB notes that India failed to sustainably settle its imports from Russia in rupees. “By mid-2023, major Indian refineries had begun using the yuan to pay for Russian crude oil imports”, the report states.

然而，人民币似乎是首选。欧洲央行指出，印度未能可持续地以卢比结算从俄罗斯的进口。报告称，“到 2023 年中期，印度主要炼油厂已开始使用人民币支付俄罗斯原油进口”。

When will bitcoin be in reserve?

比特币什么时候会有储备？

Bitcoin is already a reserve currency for small countries like El Salvador and Bhutan. For example, El Salvador holds over 5,000 bitcoins.

比特币已经成为萨尔瓦多和不丹等小国的储备货币。例如，萨尔瓦多持有超过 5,000 个比特币。

Additionally, some countries hold significant amounts due to seizures. It is estimated that 565,000 bitcoins are held by various countries such as the United States, China, Bulgaria, etc. This amounts to $40 billion. That is 0.34% of global foreign exchange reserves.

此外，一些国家因缉获而持有大量。据估计，美国、中国、保加利亚等国家持有565,000枚比特币，价值400亿美元。占全球外汇储备的0.34%。

We could also dare to say that all bitcoins are foreign exchange reserves. Indeed, a country’s reserves are used when its citizens purchase something abroad. From this perspective, bitcoin is a reserve currency in potential. With a capitalization equivalent to $1,250 billion, bitcoin represents 10% of global foreign exchange reserves!

我们也可以大胆地说，所有的比特币都是外汇储备。事实上，当一个国家的公民在国外购买东西时，就会动用该国的储备。从这个角度来看，比特币是一种潜在的储备货币。比特币市值相当于1.25万亿美元，占全球外汇储备的10%！

Bitcoin is also a payment network performing massive transfers. Bitcoin transactions amounted to approximately 1,000 billion dollars in 2023. To compare, Visa and Mastercard process $9,000 billion per year.

比特币也是一个执行大规模转账的支付网络。 2023 年，比特币交易额约为 1 万亿美元。相比之下，Visa 和万事达卡每年处理的交易额为 9 万亿美元。

Bitcoin has formidable advantages to stand out in the face of payment systems fragmentation. Stateless, uncensorable, and an absolute store of value, it is poised to become the international reference currency.

面对支付系统的碎片化，比特币具有突出的优势。无国籍、不可审查且具有绝对的价值储存手段，它有望成为国际参考货币。

Don’t miss our article: India Launches Globalization of the Rupee.

不要错过我们的文章：印度启动卢比全球化。

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Bitcoin, geopolitical, economic and energy journalist

比特币、地缘政治、经济和能源记者