为什么以太坊价格落后于比特币？

Split Capital（一家专门从事流动性代币投资的对冲基金）的首席投资官（CIO）兼创始人 Zaheer Ebtikar 将过去几个月以太坊表现不佳归因于以太坊基金会的战略失误和加密资本流动的结构性转变。

Chief Investment Officer (CIO) and founder of Split Capital, Zaheer Ebtikar, has shared his analysis on why Ethereum has underperformed over the last months, attributing it to strategic missteps by the Ethereum Foundation and structural shifts in crypto capital flows.

首席投资官 (CIO) 兼 Split Capital 创始人 Zaheer Ebtikar 分享了他对以太坊过去几个月表现不佳的分析，将其归因于以太坊基金会的战略失误和加密资本流动的结构性转变。

In an analysis shared via X (formerly Twitter), Ebtikar writes, “Independent of the myriad of (probable) bad decisions that the ETH foundation & co have made there’s another structural reason why ETH has traded like a dog this cycle.”

在通过 X（以前的 Twitter）分享的分析中，Ebtikar 写道，“与 ETH 基金会和公司做出的无数（可能的）错误决定无关，还有另一个结构性原因导致 ETH 在这个周期中像狗一样交易。”

According to Ebtikar, three primary sources of capital flow within the crypto market are retail investors, private capital, and institutional investors. However, he notes that retail investors are “hardest to quantify” and are “not fully present in the market today,” thus excluding them from his analysis.

Ebtikar 认为，加密货币市场中资金流动的三个主要来源是散户投资者、私人资本和机构投资者。然而，他指出，散户投资者“最难量化”，并且“没有完全出现在当今的市场中”，因此将他们排除在他的分析之外。

Focusing on private capital, Ebtikar highlights that in 2021, this segment was the largest capital base, driven by crypto euphoria that attracted more than $20 billion in net new inflows. “Fast forward to today, private capital is no longer the heavy hitter capital base as ETFs and other traditional vehicles have taken the role of the largest net new buyer of crypto,” he states. He attributes this decline to a series of poor venture investments and overhang from prior cycles, which have “left a bad taste in the mouths of LPs.”

Ebtikar 重点关注私人资本，他强调，2021 年，该领域是最大的资本基础，受到加密货币热潮的推动，吸引了超过 200 亿美元的新净流入。 “快进到今天，私人资本不再是重要的资本基础，因为 ETF 和其他传统工具已经成为加密货币最大的净新买家，”他表示。他将这种下滑归因于一系列糟糕的风险投资以及之前周期的悬而未决，这些“给有限合伙人留下了不好的印象”。

These venture firms and liquid funds recognized that they couldn’t wait out another cycle and needed to be more proactive. They began taking more “shots on target” for liquid plays, often through private deals involving locked tokens such as Solana (SOL), Celestia (TIA), and Toncoin (TON). “These locked deals also represented something more interesting for a lot of firms—there’s a world outside of Ethereum-based investing that is actually growing and usable and has enough market cap growth relative to ETH that could justify the underwriting of the investment,” Ebtikar explains.

这些风险投资公司和流动资金认识到他们不能等待另一个周期结束，需要更加积极主动。他们开始为流动性游戏采取更多“瞄准目标”，通常是通过涉及 Solana (SOL)、Celestia (TIA) 和 Toncoin (TON) 等锁定代币的私人交易。 “这些锁定交易对许多公司来说也代表了一些更有趣的东西——除了基于以太坊的投资之外，还有一个世界实际上正在增长和可用，并且相对于 ETH 有足够的市值增长，这可以证明投资的承销是合理的，”Ebtikar解释说。

Turning his attention to institutional capital, Ebtikar observes that when spot Bitcoin ETFs like IBIT, FBTC, ARKB, and BITW entered the market, they exceeded expectations. “These products broke any realistic target investors and experts could’ve fathomed with their success,” he states. He emphasizes that Bitcoin ETFs have become some of the most successful ETF products in history. “BTC went from being a dog in the average portfolio to now the only funnel for net new capital in crypto and at a record rate too,” he says.

将注意力转向机构资本，Ebtikar 观察到，当 IBIT、FBTC、ARKB 和 BITW 等现货比特币 ETF 进入市场时，它们的表现超出了预期。 “这些产品的成功打破了投资者和专家所能想象的任何现实目标，”他表示。他强调，比特币 ETF 已成为历史上最成功的 ETF 产品之一。他表示：“比特币从普通投资组合中的一只狗变成了现在加密货币净新资本的唯一渠道，而且速度也创下了纪录。”

Despite Bitcoin’s surge, the rest of the market didn’t keep up. Ebtikar questions why this was the case, pointing out that crypto-native investors, retail, and private capital had long since reduced their Bitcoin holdings. Instead, they were “stuck in altcoins and Ethereum as the core of their portfolio.” Consequently, when Bitcoin received its institutional bid, few in the crypto space benefited from the new wealth effect. “Few in crypto were beneficiaries of the newly made wealth effect,” he remarks.

尽管比特币飙升，但市场的其他部分却没有跟上。 Ebtikar 质疑为什么会出现这种情况，并指出加密货币本土投资者、散户和私人资本早已减少了比特币持有量。相反，他们“陷入了以山寨币和以太坊为核心的投资组合”。因此，当比特币收到机构出价时，加密货币领域很少有人从新的财富效应中受益。 “在加密货币领域，几乎没有人是新产生的财富效应的受益者，”他评论道。

Investors began to reassess their portfolios, struggling to decide their next moves. Historically, crypto capital would cycle from index assets like Bitcoin to Ethereum and then down the risk curve to altcoins. However, traders speculated on potential flows into Ethereum and similar assets but were “broadly wrong.” The market started to diverge, and the dispersion between asset returns intensified. Professional crypto investors and traders moved aggressively down the risk curve, and funds followed suit to generate returns.

投资者开始重新评估他们的投资组合，努力决定下一步行动。从历史上看，加密资本会从比特币等指数资产循环到以太坊，然后沿着风险曲线下降到山寨币。然而，交易员推测以太坊和类似资产可能流入，但“大体错误”。市场开始分化，资产收益率分化加剧。专业的加密货币投资者和交易员积极降低风险曲线，基金也纷纷效仿以产生回报。

The asset they chose to reduce exposure to was Ethereum—the largest asset in their core portfolios. “Slowly but surely ETH started losing steam to SOL and similar, and a non-trivial percentage of this flow started really moving downstream to memecoins,” Ebtikar observes. “ETH lost its moat in crypto-savvy investors, the only group of investors who were historically interested in buying.”

他们选择减少风险敞口的资产是以太坊——其核心投资组合中最大的资产。 “缓慢但肯定的是，ETH 开始失去对 SOL 和类似产品的支持，并且这一流量的很大一部分开始真正向下游转移到模因币，”Ebtikar 观察到。 “ETH 在精通加密货币的投资者中失去了护城河，这是历史上唯一有兴趣购买的投资者群体。”

Even with the introduction of spot ETH ETFs, institutional capital paid little attention to Ethereum. Ebtikar describes Ethereum’s predicament as suffering from “middle-child syndrome.” He elaborates, “The asset is not in vogue with institutional investors, the asset lost favor in crypto private capital circles, and retail is nowhere to be seen bidding anything at this size.” He emphasizes that Ethereum is too large for native capital to support while other index assets like SOL and large caps like TIA, TAO, and SUI are capturing investor attention.

即使推出了现货 ETH ETF，机构资本也很少关注以太坊。 Ebtikar 将以太坊的困境描述为患有“中童综合症”。他解释说，“该资产不受机构投资者的欢迎，在加密货币私人资本圈中失去了青睐，并且没有看到散户以这种规模出价。”他强调，以太坊规模太大，本土资本无法支持，而 SOL 等其他指数资产以及 TIA、TAO 和 SUI 等大盘股正在吸引投资者的注意力。

According to Ebtikar, the only way forward is to expand the universe of potentially interested investors, which can only happen at the institutional level. “ETH’s best odds of making a material comeback (short of changes to the core protocol’s trajectory) is to have institutional investors pick up the asset in the coming months,” he suggests. He acknowledges that while Ethereum faces significant challenges, it is “the only other asset with an ETF and likely will be for some time.” This unique position offers a potential avenue for recovery.

Ebtikar 认为，唯一的出路是扩大潜在感兴趣的投资者的范围，而这只能在机构层面发生。他表示：“ETH 实现实质性复苏（核心协议轨迹不发生改变）的最佳机会是让机构投资者在未来几个月内买入该资产。”他承认，虽然以太坊面临重大挑战，但它是“唯一拥有 ETF 的其他资产，而且可能会持续一段时间。”这一独特的位置提供了潜在的恢复途径。

Ebtikar mentions several factors that could influence Ethereum’s future trajectory. He cites the possibility of a Trump presidency, which could bring changes to regulatory frameworks affecting cryptocurrency

Ebtikar 提到了几个可能影响以太坊未来轨迹的因素。他提到了特朗普当选总统的可能性，这可能会给影响加密货币的监管框架带来变化