自2025年5月初以来，以太坊（ETH）上演了一个显着的恢复

尽管价格有很高的反弹，但链上信号和市场情绪表明，在本周期中，ETH可能没有进入其真正的突破阶段。

Since early May 2025, Ethereum (ETH) has staged a notable recovery, rising from around $2,200 in mid-April to above $2,600 in the first days of May. Despite the strong price rebound, on-chain signals and market sentiment suggest that ETH may not have entered its true breakout phase in this cycle. Instead, the current price rally appears to be driven mainly by institutional accumulation, while common indicators of an “altseason” have yet to clearly emerge.

自2025年5月初以来，以太坊（ETH）上演了一个显着的恢复，在5月的头几天中，4月中旬的$ 2,200增加到了2,600美元以上。尽管价格有很高的反弹，但链上信号和市场情绪表明，在本周期中，ETH可能没有进入其真正的突破阶段。取而代之的是，当前的价格集会似乎主要是由机构积累驱动的，而“季后赛”的共同指标尚未明显出现。

One of the key indicators that the Ethereum ecosystem has not fully heated up again is the current gas fee level. According to data from Ultrasound Money, average gas prices have remained low, often below 25 gwei for several consecutive weeks. This is modest compared to previous bull markets, when gas prices often exceeded 100 gwei due to surging demand for dApps, NFTs, and DeFi activity.

以太坊生态系统尚未完全加热的关键指标之一是当前的汽油费水平。根据超声货币的数据，平均汽油价格仍然很低，通常连续几周低于25 GWEI。与以前的牛市相比，这是适度的，因为由于对DAPP，NFTS和DEFI活动的需求激增，汽油价格通常超过100 GWEI。

Source: Ultrasound

资料来源：超声波

It indicates that major trends in the Ethereum ecosystem, such as NFTs, DeFi, SocialFi, or memecoins, have yet to generate enough pressure to push the network into congestion. While ETH’s price is rising, actual on-chain activity remains cautious – a sign that the current rally lacks the retail-driven FOMO typically seen at cycle peaks.

它表明以太坊生态系统（例如NFTS，DEFI，Socialfi或Memecoins）的主要趋势尚未产生足够的压力以将网络推向拥堵。尽管ETH的价格上涨，但实际的链上活动仍然谨慎 - 这表明目前的集会缺乏零售驱动的FOMO，通常在周期峰值上看到。

According to data from Glassnode, institutional capital continues to flow into ETH through investment vehicles such as the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) and CME futures. The growing accumulation by whale wallets and institutional players suggests increasing long-term confidence in ETH.

根据GlassNode的数据，机构资本继续通过诸如灰度以太坊信托（ETHE）和CME Futures等投资工具进入ETH。鲸鱼钱包和机构参与者的积累日益增长表明，对ETH的长期信心提高。

Source: Coinglass

资料来源：小店

Another important indicator is the Altseason Index, which measures the relative strength of altcoins compared to Bitcoin. Currently, the index is still hovering below 30, indicating that the market has not yet entered a full-blown FOMO phase for tokens smaller than ETH. In previous cycles, this index typically had to exceed 75 to confirm that an altseason had truly begun.

另一个重要的指标是Altsease指数，该指数衡量了与比特币相比的替代币的相对强度。目前，该指数仍在30岁以下，这表明该市场尚未进入小于ETH的代币成熟的FOMO阶段。在以前的周期中，该指数通常必须超过75个，以确认Altseason确实已经开始。

With altseason still absent, it suggests that ETH – as the leading representative – has yet to reach its final euphoric peak in this cycle. This leaves room for ETH to continue rising, but the market needs more time for a clearer rotation of capital from BTC into higher-risk assets.

由于Altseason仍然缺席，这表明ETH作为领先的代表 - 在这个周期中尚未达到其最终的欣喜高峰。这为ETH留出了继续上升的空间，但是市场需要更多的时间才能将BTC的资本更清晰地旋转到高风险的资产。

Source: BlockchainCenter

来源：区块链

What’s particularly notable is that despite ETH’s strong recent rally, the Altseason Index has remained subdued. Historically, such a powerful move in ETH would trigger broader market enthusiasm and push the index higher. The fact that this has not happened indicates that there is still significant untapped potential in the altcoin market, and further upside momentum could emerge as capital gradually rotates beyond ETH.

特别值得注意的是，尽管ETH最近举行了强烈的集会，但Altseason指数仍然柔和。从历史上看，在ETH中，如此强大的举动将引发更广泛的市场热情，并将指数提高。这尚未发生的事实表明，山寨币市场仍然存在巨大的未开发潜力，并且随着资本逐渐旋转ETH，可能会出现进一步的上升势头。

Data from Coinglass shows a significant shift in Ethereum’s derivatives market positioning. The 24-hour Long/Short ratio is currently nearly at parity (0.9585), while top traders on Binance are showing a clear bias toward long positions with a nearly 3:1 ratio (2.9766).

来自Coinglass的数据显示以太坊的衍生物市场定位发生了重大变化。 24小时的长度/短比率目前几乎达到平等（0.9585），而Binance的顶级交易者对近3：1比率的长位置表现出明显的偏见（2.9766）。

In addition, total short liquidations over the past 24 hours reached $26.88 million, while long liquidations were significantly higher at $71.85 million. In reality, short positioning has weakened considerably compared to February 2025, when it had surged over 500% since November of the previous year.

此外，在过去的24小时中，总的短量清算量达到2688万美元，而长量清算显着高于7185万美元。实际上，与2025年2月相比，短期定位较弱，自上一年11月以来，它飙升了500％以上。

This suggests that institutional players may be gradually abandoning a bearish short-term outlook and instead waiting for stronger signals to confirm a sustained bullish trend in ETH. The market currently appears to be in a phase of positioning and recalibration rather than another large-scale short wave.

这表明，机构参与者可能会逐渐放弃看跌的短期前景，而是等待更强的信号确认ETH的持续看涨趋势。当前的市场似乎处于定位和重新校准的阶段，而不是另一个大型短波。

Source: CoinGlass

资料来源：小店

Ethereum remains the foundational platform for many of the most promising trends of this new cycle, including:

以太坊仍然是该新周期中许多最有希望的趋势的基础平台，包括：

* Layer 2 scaling solutions like Optimism and zkSync

*第2层缩放解决方案，例如乐观和ZKSYNC

* Next-generation DeFi protocols like Balancer and Aave v2

*诸如Balancer和AAVE V2之类的下一代DEFI协议

* The emergence of advanced use cases for NFTs beyond collectibles

*除收藏品以外的NFT的高级用例出现

* The development of decentralized social media platforms and the metaverse

*去中心化社交媒体平台和元元的发展

However, the common denominator across these trends is that none has truly exploded to the point of lifting the entire ecosystem. This reinforces the view that ETH is still in the final accumulation phase of a mid-cycle, rather than having reached a cycle top.

但是，这些趋势的共同点是，没有人真正爆炸到提升整个生态系统的地步。这加强了以下观点，即ETH仍处于中期周期的最终积累阶段，而不是达到周期顶部。