以太币供应紧缩会导致第四季度价格上涨吗？

以太币的价格可能会下跌，但其流动性供应正在减少。如果下季度需求回升，我们可能会看到供应紧缩，从而推高价格

Ether’s price might be falling, but its available supply is shrinking. If demand picks up next quarter, we could see a supply crunch that pushes prices higher.

以太币的价格可能会下跌，但其可用供应量正在减少。如果下季度需求回升，我们可能会看到供应紧缩，从而推高价格。

Here’s a closer look at the on-chain metrics that could be setting the stage for ether to outpace the market in Q4.

以下是对链上指标的仔细研究，这些指标可能为以太坊在第四季度超越市场奠定基础。

Fresh data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant shows ether exchange reserves are rising, which could indicate selling pressure and drive prices further down.

链上分析公司 CryptoQuant 的最新数据显示，以太币交易储备正在上升，这可能表明抛售压力并推动价格进一步下跌。

This is because a glut (or an oversupply in the market) can put downward pressure on prices, potentially causing a sell-off if enough investors panic and start dumping their crypto holdings to cut losses. We saw this when the German government shook the market by suddenly selling its $3 billion worth of seized bitcoin just a few months ago.

这是因为供过于求（或市场供应过剩）可能会给价格带来下行压力，如果有足够多的投资者恐慌并开始抛售其持有的加密货币以减少损失，则可能会导致抛售。几个月前，德国政府突然出售价值 30 亿美元的缴获比特币，震动了市场，我们就看到了这一点。

But zooming out, this “glut” is less than 1% of exchange reserves, and in reality, these reserves still remain near their all-time lows – 18.7 million ETH, or 15% of the total supply.

但如果缩小范围，这种“过剩”还不到外汇储备的 1%，而实际上，这些储备仍然接近历史低点——1870 万 ETH，占总供应量的 15%。

Spot ether reserves are even less and now at an all-time low of around 8.4 million ETH. Any inflow is quickly matched by outflows, so any selling pressure is likely being absorbed. The recent uptick in Ether reserves is mainly on derivative exchanges, where Ether is being used as collateral for long/ short positions.

以太坊现货储备更少，目前处于历史最低水平，约为 840 万枚 ETH。任何流入都会很快与流出相匹配，因此任何抛售压力都可能被吸收。最近以太币储备的增加主要是在衍生品交易所，以太币被用作多头/空头头寸的抵押品。

Ether’s 78% gains ($2,282 to $4,066) from January to March have almost been wiped out (now $2,321), yet ether exchange reserves have still fallen by 10% since the start of the year. This is unusual given that reserves and prices are usually inversely correlated; perhaps suggesting that investor confidence in Ether’s long-term value potential remains strong.

以太坊从 1 月到 3 月的 78% 涨幅（2,282 美元至 4,066 美元）几乎被抹去（现为 2,321 美元），但以太坊外汇储备自年初以来仍下跌了 10%。鉴于储量和价格通常呈负相关，这是不寻常的；这或许表明投资者对以太币长期价值潜力的信心依然强劲。

Ether staking deposits continue to climb

以太坊质押存款继续攀升

Even though the price of Ether has dropped 42% from its all-time-high, staking deposits continue to climb, increasing by nearly 20% since the start of the year. Over 34.5 million ETH ($81.3 billion) are currently staked or 28.8% of the total supply, which is an all-time high.

尽管以太币的价格已从历史最高点下跌了 42%，但质押存款仍在继续攀升，自年初以来增加了近 20%。目前质押的 ETH 数量超过 3450 万枚（813 亿美元），占总供应量的 28.8%，创历史新高。

Investors seem either hungry for higher returns by restaking on platforms like EigenLayer (and more recently, Symbiotic) or are happy with a lower risk / lower reward option through traditional staking options and protocols. Either way, dollar values are down, Ether amounts are up.

投资者似乎要么渴望通过在 EigenLayer（以及最近的 Symbiotic）等平台上重新抵押来获得更高的回报，要么对通过传统抵押选项和协议获得较低风险/较低回报的选择感到满意。无论哪种方式，美元价值都会下跌，而以太币数量则会上涨。

Demand for staking and restaking seems unfazed by Ether’s declining prices. If this trend persists, it will continue to remove more Ether from the available liquid supply.

对质押和重新质押的需求似乎并未受到以太币价格下跌的影响。如果这种趋势持续下去，它将继续从可用液体供应中去除更多的以太币。

Big underperformance

表现严重不佳

Ether’s price underperformance compared to Bitcoin and Solana has been substantial, with the disappointing launch of the ether spot ETFs (which has mostly seen net outflows) further dampening sentiment.

与比特币和 Solana 相比，以太币的价格表现明显不佳，以太坊现货 ETF 的推出令人失望（大部分出现净流出），进一步抑制了市场情绪。

It wasn’t until months after BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF filing that the crypto market saw growth in the form of a year-end rally. Since then, Bitcoin has risen 114%, Solana has surged 564%, but Ethereum has only risen 27%.

直到贝莱德 (BlackRock) 提交比特币 ETF 申请几个月后，加密货币市场才以年终反弹的形式出现增长。此后，比特币上涨了 114%，Solana 飙升了 564%，但以太坊仅上涨了 27%。

Solana’s token performance and network growth have been impressive lately, with transaction volumes rising by 50% since the start of the year and recently reaching an all-time high of 3.9 million active addresses. But its market share (3.02%) is still just a fraction of Ethereum’s (13.56%) in the current $2.05 trillion crypto market. It is also worth mentioning that most of Solana’s impressive activity has been dominated by memecoins. Is this really sustainable in the long run?

Solana 的代币表现和网络增长最近令人印象深刻，交易量自年初以来增长了 50%，最近达到了 390 万个活跃地址的历史新高。但在当前 2.05 万亿美元的加密货币市场中，其市场份额（3.02%）仍然只是以太坊（13.56%）的一小部分。还值得一提的是，Solana 的大部分令人印象深刻的活动都是由模因币主导的。从长远来看，这真的可持续吗？

Year-end rally?

年底集会？

After a long period of underperformance, negative sentiment around Ether might be nearing its bottom. An uptick in Ethereum ETF inflows could be just the catalyst needed to trigger the supply crunch and upside shocks in Ether’s price.

在经历了长期表现不佳之后，围绕以太币的负面情绪可能已接近底部。以太坊 ETF 资金流入的增加可能只是引发供应紧缩和以太坊价格上行冲击所需的催化剂。

With a favourable economic backdrop of falling rates and looser liquidity, regulatory support, not to mention, the growing institutional interest in crypto ETF products (including some of the most conservative traditional investors such as state pension funds), a new wave of institutional inflows seems likely.

在利率下降、流动性宽松、监管支持等有利的经济背景下，更不用说机构对加密 ETF 产品的兴趣不断增长（包括一些最保守的传统投资者，如国家养老基金），新一波机构资金流入似乎可能。

Meanwhile, the crypto market has failed to price in these positive fundamentals, so the opportunity is there for a sharp catch-up rally.

与此同时，加密货币市场未能反映这些积极的基本面，因此有机会大幅追赶反弹。

If we combine a new wave of inflows with Ether’s shrinking liquid supply, any upside shocks in Ether’s price will be sharp and quick.

如果我们将新一波资金流入与以太坊流动性供应萎缩结合起来，以太坊价格的任何上行冲击都将是剧烈而迅速的。