Citi说

花旗的全球观点和解决方案部门上周发布了一份新报告，预测了十年结束前区块链和Stablecoins的重大增长。

Citi has forecasted that U.S. dollar stablecoins could surge to $3.7 trillion in the bull case, driving an unprecedented blockchain-fueled transformation of global finance by 2030.

花旗预测，美元稳定币在公牛案中可能会飙升至3.7万亿美元，在2030年之前推动了前所未有的区块链燃料的转型。

The bank’s Global Perspectives and Solutions division released a new report titled “Digital Dollars—Banks and Public Sector Drive Blockchain Adoption” last week, forecasting major growth in blockchain and stablecoins by the end of the decade.

该银行的全球观点和解决方案部门在上周发布了一份名为“银行和公共部门驱动区的采用”的新报告，上周预测了十年结束前区块链和Stablecoins的主要增长。

The team at Citi believes that blockchain adoption in finance and government is entering a pivotal phase, fueled largely by regulatory shifts in the United States. Citi’s analysts highlighted: “2025 has the potential to be blockchain’s ‘ChatGPT’ moment for adoption in the financial and public sector, driven by regulatory change.” The report reflected a broad consensus that the coming months could mark a transformative period as blockchain and stablecoins move into mainstream financial infrastructure.

花旗的团队认为，财务和政府的区块链采用正在进入关键阶段，这在很大程度上是由美国的监管转变所推动的。花旗的分析师强调：“ 2025年有可能成为区块链的“ Chatgpt”时刻，以在监管变化的驱动下，在金融和公共部门采用。”该报告反映了一个广泛的共识，即未来几个月可能标志着区块链和Stablecoins进入主流金融基础设施。

The most striking prediction focused on the future of stablecoins, with Citi providing multiple growth scenarios. The analysts projected:

最引人注目的预测集中在Stablecoins的未来，花旗提供了多种增长方案。分析师预计：

The total outstanding supply of stablecoins could grow to $1.6 trillion by 2030 in our base case and to $3.7 trillion by 2030 in our bull case.

在我们的基本案例中，到2030年，稳定币的总未偿还供应可以增长到1.6万亿美元，到2030年，在我们的牛案中，可以增长到3.7万亿美元。

“That said, the number could be closer to half a trillion dollars if adoption and integration challenges persist,” they noted. The report explained that favorable regulation, technological improvements, and growing institutional adoption could lead to an explosive rise in stablecoin usage globally. However, the team also cautioned that market expansion is not guaranteed if risks such as depegging events or regulatory fragmentation materialize.

他们指出：“也就是说，如果采用和集成挑战持续存在，这个数字可能接近一万亿美元。”该报告解释说，有利的法规，技术改进和制度采用不断增长可能会导致全球使用Stablecoin的爆炸性增加。但是，团队还警告说，如果诸如挑战事件或监管分裂之类的风险实现，则不能保证市场扩张。

In terms of currency composition, Citi indicated that U.S. dollar-backed stablecoins would continue to dominate over the coming years, despite international competition. The report stated:

在货币构成方面，花旗表明，尽管国际竞争，但在未来几年中，美元支持的稳定币仍将继续占主导地位。报告指出：

We expect the stablecoin supply will remain U.S. dollar denominated (approx. 90%), with non-U.S. countries promoting national currency CBDCs.

我们预计，稳定的供应将仍然以美元计价（约90％），非美国国家促进国家货币CBDC。

While dollar dominance is likely to persist through 2030, Citi analysts noted that efforts in Europe and China to push local currency digital alternatives could slightly shift market dynamics. Overall, the findings suggest that while blockchain and stablecoins face substantial challenges ahead, they are positioned to become an even greater force in reshaping global finance by the end of the decade.

尽管美元优势可能会持续到2030年，但花旗分析师指出，欧洲和中国推动当地货币数字替代方案的努力可能会稍微改变市场动态。总体而言，调查结果表明，尽管区块链和Stablecoins面临着未来的重大挑战，但在十年末，它们将成为重塑全球融资的更大力量。