Dogecoin（Doge）价格预测：模因可能即将离开合并范围

Dogecoin在三年的大部分时间里消化了2021年的吹式顶部，但受欢迎的模因可能即将离开合并范围

A fresh look at the Dogecoin chart on the weekly timeframe suggests that the meme-coin may be preparing to break out of its multi-year consolidation range. The analysis, shared by Maelius (@MaeliusCrypto) on X, highlights several technical factors that could favor a steeper ascent in the near term.

在每周的时间范围内仔细查看Dogecoin图表表明，模因可能正在准备摆脱其多年整合范围。 Maelius（@MaeliusCrypto）在X上共享的分析突出了几个技术因素，这些因素可能在短期内有利于更陡峭的上升。

Dogecoin Could Be Poised For Breakout After 3 Years Of Consolidation

三年合并后，Dogecoin可能会被准备好突破

The analysis focuses on the DOGE/USDT pair on Binance, currently trading at $0.1828. The chart shows two long-term moving averages: the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA-50) in blue at $0.203 and the rising 200-week EMA (EMA-200) in red at $0.138.

该分析侧重于Doge/USDT对Binance，目前以0.1828美元的价格交易。该图显示了两个长期移动平均值：蓝色的50周指数移动平均值（EMA-50）为0.203，RED的200周EMA（EMA-200）上升为0.138美元。

The price action broke below the EMA-50 earlier this year but, crucially, never lost the EMA-200, which is now sitting inside a broad demand zone shaded in slate colour that runs roughly from $0.11 to $0.20. A second layer of support comes from an ascending red trend-line that links the October 2023, August 2024 and April 2025 swing-lows.

价格动作在今年早些时候的EMA-50以下打破，但至关重要的是，从未丢失EMA-200，现在坐落在板岩颜色的广泛需求区域内，大约从0.11美元到0.20美元。第二层的支持来自上升的红色趋势线，该趋势线链接了2023年10月，2024年8月和2025年4月的摇摆低点。

The most recent pullback, labelled 2 on the chart, bounced almost precisely where that diagonal meets the EMA-200 and the lower edge of demand—an area of triple confluence that technicians often see as a textbook springboard for the next advance.

最新的回调标记为图表上的2个，几乎准确地反弹了该对角线与EMA-200符合EMA-200和需求的下边缘，这是技术人员经常将其视为下一个前进的三重汇合处。

Maelius’ primary thesis rests on a nested 1-2, 1-2 Elliott Wave count. The first “1-2” sequence began with a thrust to ~0.2288 in March 2024, retraced to 0.0805 in August the same year, and then ignited a larger impulsive leg that topped near 0.4843 in December last year (labelled the second “1”). The corrective follow-through to 0.1298 in April completed the second “2”.

Maelius的主要论文依靠1-2，1-2埃利奥特波数。第一个“ 1-2”序列始于2024年3月的〜0.2288，同年8月回落至0.0805，然后点燃了一条更大的冲动腿，去年12月在12月的0.4843接近0.4843（标记了第二个“ 1”）。 4月的纠正措施至0.1298完成了第二个“ 2”。

In Elliott terminology, two consecutive 1-2 structures “wind the spring” for wave 3 of (3)—historically the longest and steepest portion of an impulse. Maelius places the coming third wave, its subsequent fourth-wave consolidation, and a final fifth wave in the blank area above current price.

在Elliott术语中，连续两种1-2个结构“风弹簧”（3）波第3波 - 历史上是冲动的最长和最陡峭的部分。 Maelius将即将到来的第三波浪潮，随后的第四波巩固以及在当前价格高于空白区域的最后第五波。

He predicts DOGE to reach roughly $1 as part of the third wave, followed by a fourth wave correctional pullback below $0.70. The fifth wave is expected to reach its climax somewhere between $1.30 and $1.70.

他预测，作为第三波浪潮的一部分，Doge将达到大约1美元，然后将第四波矫正回调低于$ 0.70。预计第五波将达到1.30美元至1.70美元之间的高潮。

Below the price action sits the WaveTrend Oscillator (WTO), a momentum indicator closely related to the TSI that measures the distance between an asset’s price and its own smoothed values. The WTO prints two lines and a histogram; a bullish cycle begins when the faster line crosses above the slower one from oversold territory (-60/-53 in the standard settings).

在价格动作下方是Wavetrend振荡器（WTO），这是一种与TSI密切相关的动量指标，可测量资产价格与其自身平滑值之间的距离。 WTO打印两条线和一条直方图；当较快的线从超售区域（标准设置中的-60/-53）上方越过较慢的线上时，看涨的周期就开始了。

That cross has just fired on the 1-week timeframe for the first time since the August 2024 low. The histogram has shifted from deep red to neutral grey, echoing similar transitions that preceded Dogecoin’s previous vertical advances.

自2024年8月低点以来，那个十字架刚刚在1周的时间范围内开火。直方图已从深红色转变为中性灰色，与Dogecoin先前垂直进步之前的类似过渡相呼应。

Put together, the chart describes a market that is holding a multi-year demand block, trading above its 200-week EMA, testing—though not yet reclaiming—its 50-week EMA, and exhibiting a fresh bullish momentum cross. From a pure-chart standpoint, those ingredients satisfy many of the conditions technicians look for when hunting the start of a primary trend leg.

结合在一起，该图表描述了一个持有多年需求障碍的市场，其交易高于其200周的EMA，测试（尽管尚未收回），虽然尚未回收，但它的50周EMA以及展示了新的Bullish Momentum Cross。从纯粹的角度来看，这些成分满足了技术人员在寻找主要趋势腿的开始时所寻求的许多条件。

Maelius concludes: “DOGE looks incredible here, despite the fact it went lower as I initially expected (was expecting EMA50 to hold).Respecting major demand area, EMA20

Maelius得出结论：“ Doge在这里看起来令人难以置信，尽管事实正如我最初预期的那样较低（预计EMA50会持有）。尊敬的主要需求区域，EMA20